2020 China City talent attraction Report From Evergrande Research Institute
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The following is the 2020 China City talent attraction Report From Evergrande Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Online recruitment.
1. Data Description: decipher the trend of talent flow through cross city employment data
Population is the basis of all economic and social activities, and talents are the first resource, but the data that can reflect the flow of talents is lack. The size and proportion of the 15-64 year old population in China peaked in 2011 and 2013 respectively, marking the disappearance of the demographic dividend supporting the rapid economic development in the past. China needs to turn to talent dividend. Moreover, from the perspective of the natural growth trend of population, the total population of China will peak in the period of the 14th five year plan, and then enter negative growth. In this context, since 2017, about 100 cities in China have launched “war against people”, which is not only for young people but also for talents. The flow of population can be analyzed by official permanent population data, but the data reflecting the flow of talents is lack, especially in non census years. Therefore, Evergrande Research Institute and Zhilian recruitment jointly launched the report of “China Urban talent attraction ranking”, in order to accurately grasp the talent flow situation.
Data description and characteristics: Zhaopin recruitment has about 200 million registered users, and the daily average number of active users (including users who log in and have job seeking behaviors) is about 6.3 million. Among them, about 85% of the job seekers who have resume delivery behavior in that year are college graduates or above, far more than 14.6% of the total employment population in China (2015 census data); among the job seekers, about four become cross city Job seekers, that is, the floating talents who live in different cities and whose resumes are sent to cities. There are obvious monthly fluctuations in talent job hunting and cross city job hunting. The peak of job hunting is generally in March after the Spring Festival. In March 2019, the proportion of job seekers and migrant workers is 11.3% and 13.1% respectively, and that in 2018 is 12.1% and 12.3%.
1) From the perspective of gender, in 2019, 60% of the floating talents are male, which is significantly higher than 54% of the total job seekers. Men are more likely to cross city job hunting. In 2019, the ratio of male to female in Zhaopin recruitment platform is 54:46, among which the male to female ratio of mobile talents is 60:40, which indicates that men are more likely to cross city job hunting. In 2018, the above ratios are 54:46 and 64:36, respectively. In 2019, the gender ratio of migrant talents is more balanced.
2) In terms of age, more than 8 of the floating talents are 18-35 years old. In 2019, 18-25 years old, 26-30 years old, 31-35 years old, 36-40 years old, 41-45 years old, 46 years old and above accounted for 30.2%, 34.5%, 20.5%, 8.8%, 3.4% and 2.6% respectively; among the floating talents, talents of different ages accounted for 30.7%, 34.1%, 19.6%, 8.8%, 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively. The age structure of job-hunting talents and floating talents was relatively consistent, with that of 18-35 years old accounting for 85.1% and 84.4%, respectively The proportion is 86.1% and 78.6% respectively. In 2019, the floating talents are more concentrated in 18-35 years old.
3) From the perspective of education, 52% of the floating talents have bachelor’s degree or above, which is significantly higher than 47% of the overall job seekers, indicating that highly educated talents are more likely to cross city job hunting. In 2019, the proportion of junior high school and below, senior high school, junior college, undergraduate, and graduate education accounted for 2.5%, 13.0%, 38.4%, 41.5% and 4.7% respectively, among which, the education of floating talents accounted for 2.1%, 10.4%, 36.8%, 45.0% and 5.7%, respectively. The proportion of undergraduate and postgraduate education in migrant talents was higher than the overall level. In 2019, the proportion of undergraduate and higher education in floating talents accounted for 50.7%, which was higher than that of job hunting The overall 46.2% was 4.5 percentage points higher than that of the whole, while in 2018, the above proportions were 50.5% and 47.5% respectively, indicating that job seekers with bachelor’s degree or above are more likely to cross city job hunting.
4) In terms of working years, 46% of the floating talents have worked for 5 years or less, which is higher than 44% of the overall job seekers. New employees in the workplace are more likely to cross the city to find jobs. In 2019, 3.1%, 21.1%, 19.4%, 30.3%, 22.3% and 3.8% of the job-hunting talents with working years of 1 year or less, 1-3 years, 3-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years and more than 20 years respectively accounted for 3.3%, 23.0%, 19.3%, 28.2%, 21.9% and 4.3% respectively. Among them, 43.6% and 45.7% of them worked for less than 5 years, indicating the career development and career development of some new employees Life vision is still uncertain and more likely to cross city job hunting. In 2018, the above proportions were 39.3% and 40.4%, respectively. In 2019, the floating talents were more concentrated in five years or less.
5) From the perspective of wage level, 45% of the floating talents earn more than 6000 yuan a month, which is significantly higher than 40% of the total job seekers. Those with higher income are more likely to cross city job hunting. Among the job-hunting talents, 29.3%, 30.8%, 17.2%, 9.4%, 8.0% and 5.3% of the job-hunting talents with monthly income of 4000 yuan and below, 4001-6000 yuan, 6001-8000 yuan, 8001-10000 yuan, 10001-15000 yuan and more than 15000 yuan accounted for 29.3%, 30.8%, 17.2%, 9.4%, 8.0% and 5.3%, respectively. Among the floating talents, those with monthly income of RMB 4000 and below accounted for 26.4%, 28.8%, 18.1%, 10.6%, 9.6% and 6.5% respectively, of which, 39.9% and 44.8% respectively accounted for more than 6000 yuan 39.9% and 45.8% respectively, indicating that the talents with higher income are more likely to cross city job hunting.
6) From the industry point of view, 51% of the floating talents are distributed in it, real estate and manufacturing industries, which is higher than 48% of the overall job-hunting talents. The top three industries with the largest number of job seekers in 2019 are it | communication | electronics | Internet, real estate | construction industry, production | processing | manufacturing, accounting for 19.4%, 14.9% and 13.9% respectively, accounting for 48.3% in total; the top three industries with the largest number of mobile talents are also the above three industries, accounting for 19.0%, 17.5% and 14.8% respectively, accounting for 51.4% in total, indicating that the distribution of mobile talents is more concentrated, and the floating talents are in housing The distribution of real estate and construction industry is far higher than that of job seekers. According to the distribution of secondary industries, the top five industries with the largest number of job seekers in 2019 are real estate / construction / building materials / engineering, Internet / e-commerce, education / training / college, medical / nursing / Beauty / health care / health service, hotel / catering, accounting for 33.7%; the top five industries with the most mobile talents are slightly different, and the fourth and fifth industries are processing and manufacturing (raw material processing / mold) 7%), medical / nursing / Beauty / health care / health services, accounting for 34.7% in total.
2. Overview of the list: Shanghai has been the most attractive city for talents for three years
2.1 top 100 cities with the most attractive talents in China: Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing ranking top three
According to the talent attraction index, in 2019, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing ranked the top three, Shanghai ranked first for three consecutive years, and Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Jinan, Suzhou and Tianjin ranked in the top ten. In order to measure the talent attraction of the city, the talent attraction index is defined as the weighted result of the proportion of talent inflow, the proportion of net talent inflow, the proportion of fresh talent inflow and the proportion of returnee talent inflow. The proportion of talent inflow = the number of talents flowing into a city / the total number of floating talents in the country, and the proportion of net inflow of talents = (talents flowing into a city – talents flowing out of a city) / the total amount of floating talents in the country, which respectively reflect the ability of the city to attract and retain. Among them, the talents flowing into a city refer to the talents whose current residence is not in the city, but whose resumes have been sent to the city; the talents flowing out of a city refer to the talents whose current residence is the city but whose resumes have been invested in other cities; the total number of floating talents in China refers to the talents whose current residence and resume are not consistent. The proportion of the inflow of fresh graduates = the total number of floating talents of fresh graduates flowing into a city, and the proportion of the inflow of overseas returnees = the total number of returnees flowing into a city, which respectively reflects the attraction of the city to young and highly educated talents and highly educated returnees. From the results, the talent attraction index of Shanghai, which has a large economic volume and stable growth, rose from the second to the first in 2017, and continued to be the first in the following three years; due to the rapid economic development of Shenzhen and the strong attraction of talent policy, Shenzhen ranked No. 3, 3, 3 and 2 from 2016 to 2019; Beijing ranked No. 1, 2, 2, and 3 due to its strict population control and deregulation of industries, and Guangzhou was ranked No. 1, No. 2, No. 2 and No. 3 Hangzhou ranked fifth for four consecutive years due to the rapid development of e-commerce industry; Nanjing ranked sixth, sixth, seventh and sixth; Chengdu ranked seventh in 2019 and relatively stable in recent three years; Jinan ranked eighth in 2019, up from 14th in 2018; Suzhou ranked 7th, 8th, 9th, more stable; Tianjin ranked 8th, 10th, 12th and 10th. Among the top 50 cities in 2019, there are 33, 6, 8 and 3 in the eastern, central, Western and northeast regions respectively; there are 4, 32, 14 and 0 cities in the first, second, third and fourth lines, accounting for 100%, 91%, 17% and 0% of the number of cities in the first, second, third and fourth tier respectively; there are 12, 7, 5, 2, and 3 urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Chengdu Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.
In 2019, the proportion of fresh students and returnees who put their resumes to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou accounted for 24.5% and 28.7% respectively, which were higher than the overall proportion of 20.2% of the total flow of mobile talents to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The fresh students and returnees prefer to concentrate in the first and second tier cities. From the perspective of fresh students, the top four talents inflow rate is beishangshenguang, accounting for 24.5% in total, which is higher than 20.2% in beishangshenzhen Guangzhou; Chengdu, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Xi’an and Tianjin are among the top ten cities, accounting for 45.2% in total and 36.1% higher than that in the top ten cities, which means that compared with the floating talents, the inflow of fresh talents should be improved The new generation talents are more concentrated in the first and second tier cities. Compared with that in 2018, the proportion of fresh students flowing into Beijing, Wuhan and Chengdu in 2019 decreased by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while the proportion of fresh students flowing into Jinan and Shenzhen increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. From the perspective of overseas returnees, the top four cities are Beishang Shenzhen Guangzhou, accounting for 28.7% in total, which is higher than 20.2% of that from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Tianjin, Suzhou and Qingdao are among the top ten cities, accounting for 44.6% of the total, which is higher than 35.5% of the top ten cities, which means that compared with the floating talents, overseas returnees have more talents It is also more concentrated to the first and second tier cities, especially to the first tier cities. Compared with that in 2018, the proportion of returned talents flowing into Beijing and Chengdu decreased by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively, while those flowing into Dongguan, Shenzhen, Changsha and Wuxi increased by 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.2%, respectively.
2.2 trend of talent flow: Talent Gathering in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and talent outflow from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei
The ratio of talent inflow to a city is the ratio of talent inflow to a city.
1) In terms of regions, the proportion of net inflow of talents in eastern, central, Western and Northeast China in 2019 is 5.8%, – 2.4%, – 0.2%, – 3.2%, respectively. Talents in the East continue to gather, while those in the central and western regions continue to flow out but narrow, while those in the Northeast continue to flow out and expand. Among the 296 prefecture level and above cities (excluding Sansha city), there are 87, 80, 95 and 34 cities in the East, central, Western and Northeast China respectively. From the perspective of the proportion of talent inflow and outflow, the proportion of talent inflow and outflow in eastern China from 2016 to 2019 is 64.2%, 63.2%, 60.8% and 61.6% respectively, both exceeding 60% but slightly decreasing, which means that more than 60% of China’s mobile talents are gathering in the East; the proportion of talent inflow and outflow in Central China is on the rise, while that of talent outflow is decreasing year by year; both the proportion of talent inflow and outflow in Western China is on the rise; The proportion of talent inflow in Northeast China was 6.0%, 5.9%, 5.3% and 5.3% respectively, which decreased year by year. The proportion of talent outflow was 8.2%, 8.2%, 8.3% and 8.5% respectively, increasing year by year. From the perspective of the proportion of net inflow of talents, the eastern part of China will be 7.8%, 6.2%, 5.7% and 5.8% respectively from 2016 to 2019, although it will decrease slightly, it will still maintain a high level; in the central part, it will be – 4.0%, – 3.2%, – 2.4%, – 2.4%, although it will increase year by year, but it will still be net outflow; in the west, it will be – 1.6%, – 0.7%, – 0.3% and – 0.2%, but it will rise to the basic equilibrium state year by year; the Northeast will be – 2.2%, – 2.3%- 3.0%, – 3.2%, and the net outflow of talents expanded.
2) From the perspective of sub tier cities, the proportion of net inflow of first tier, second tier, third tier and fourth tier talent inflow in 2019 is – 2.7%, 1.1%, 1.8% and – 0.3% respectively; in 2018, it is – 0.9%, 4.9%, – 0.3% and – 2.3%. Combined with the data observation in recent four years, the first tier talents continue to flow out due to the continuous outflow of Beijing and Shanghai controllers, the second tier talents continue to gather, the third tier is more balanced, and the fourth tier continues to flow out. We divide 296 cities at prefecture level and above into first, second, third and fourth tier cities. Among them, there are 4 first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, 35 second tier cities, 81 third tier cities, and 176 fourth tier cities (for details, please refer to the report “China’s urban development potential ranking: 2019” by Evergrande Research Institute in April 2019). From the perspective of the proportion of talent inflow and outflow, from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in first tier cities showed a downward trend, and the proportion of talent outflow was basically stable; the proportion of talent inflow in second tier cities was 44.9%, 46.3%, 47.9% and 46.4%, showing an upward trend, and about half of talents flowed into second tier cities, and the proportion of talent outflow was basically stable; talent inflow proportion of third tier cities was 20.5%, 19.3%, 18.6% and 20 8% in 2019, and the proportion of talent outflow decreased year by year; the proportion of talent inflow in the fourth tier cities was 12.2%, 11.6%, 11.6% and 12.6%, respectively, which increased significantly in 2019, and the proportion of talent outflow showed a downward trend. From the perspective of the proportion of net inflow of talents, the first-line talents accounted for 0.8%, – 0.5%, – 0.9%, – 2.7% respectively in 2016-2019. Influenced by Beijing and Shanghai controllers, the proportion of first-line talents decreased year by year, and began to change from positive to negative in 2017; the second-line talents were 0.6%, 3.2%, 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively, and the second-line talents continued to gather; the third line was 0.4%, – 0.3%, – 0.3% and 1.8%, which was relatively balanced; the fourth line was – 1.8%, – 2.5%, – 2.3%- 3%, and the net outflow of talents continued.
3) In terms of urban agglomerations, more than 6 adults will flow to the five major urban agglomerations. In 2019, the proportion of the net inflow of talents in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Chengdu Chongqing, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will be 5.0%, 2.8%, – 4.0%, 0.0% and – 0.5%, respectively. From the perspective of the proportion of talent inflow and outflow, the proportion of talent inflow and outflow in Yangtze River Delta shows a downward trend, which is 22.6% and 17.6% respectively in 2019; the proportion of talent inflow in Pearl River Delta is relatively stable, and the proportion of talent outflow is respectively 13.9% and 11.1% in 2019; the proportion of talent outflow in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2016 to 2019 is 14.3%, 16.2%, 17.0% and 17.3%, respectively, increasing year by year; Chengdu Chongqing The proportion of talent inflow and outflow is relatively stable; the proportion of talent outflow in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is decreasing year by year. From 2016 to 2019, 64.6%, 64.7%, 64.5% and 63.1% of talents respectively flowed into the five major urban agglomerations, all of which exceeded 60%. From the perspective of the proportion of net inflow of talents in the Yangtze River Delta from 2016 to 2019, they are 4.7%, 4.6%, 4.6% and 5.0% respectively, which are higher than those of other urban agglomerations, and a large number of talents gather in the Yangtze River Delta; those in the Pearl River delta are 1.7%, 2.0%, 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively, and the net inflow of talents is increasing year by year; those of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are – 0.4%, – 1.9%, – 2.9% and – 4.0%, respectively Affected by the sharp decrease in the proportion of net talent inflow in Beijing, the inflow and outflow of Chengdu and Chongqing are – 0.7%, – 0.2%, – 0.3% and 0.0%, respectively, and the inflow and outflow are basically balanced; the inflow and outflow in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are – 1.3%, – 1.0%, – 0.3% and – 0.5%, respectively.
3. Key cities: the proportion of net inflow of talents from Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ningyu and Hanyu gradually increased
From the perspective of key cities, we select the top ten cities with the most development potential (Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin, Hangzhou) as the observation objects, and make a specific analysis on their division according to the first and second tier cities (see the report of Evergrande Research Institute in May 2019 “ranking of China’s top 10 cities with the most development potential: 2019”).
3.1 first tier cities: the proportion of the net inflow of talents from the north is decreasing year by year, while the proportion of Shenzhen and Guangzhou is on the rise
In terms of the proportion of net inflow of talents in 2019, the four first tier cities going northward to Shenzhen and Guangzhou are – 3.9%, 0.5%, 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively, with the highest in Guangzhou and the lowest in Beijing. From the perspective of the trend change of the proportion of net talent inflow from 2016 to 2019, Beijing and Shanghai have decreased year by year from – 0.7% and 1.3% to – 3.9% and 0.5% respectively due to strict population control and industry deregulation; Guangzhou and Shenzhen are on the rise year by year, rising from 0.3% and – 0.2% to 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, mainly due to the rapid development of Guangzhou, the lowest cost of living in first tier cities, and the number of college students in China At the most, Shenzhen’s economic development speed is fast and talent attraction policy is strong.
1) Beijing: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was – 0.7%, – 2.3%, – 2.7%, – 3.9%, which continued to be negative and the decline was expanding, mainly due to Beijing’s strict control of population and the relaxation of industries. Beijing and Shanghai are the first target cities for brain drain, and the proportion of talents flowing from Beijing to Shanghai and Shanghai to Beijing accounted for 0.8% and 0.6% of the total flow of talents in China, respectively To Shanghai. The increase of permanent resident population in Beijing has been declining year by year, from 570000 to – 170000 in 2011-2018, to – 10000 in 2019, negative for three consecutive years from 2017 to 2019, and the lowest increase of permanent population among first tier cities in 2016-2019. From 2016 to 2019, Beijing’s talent inflow accounted for 7.2%, 7.3%, 7.1% and 6.3% respectively, but the proportion of talent outflow continued to rise, reaching 7.9%, 9.6%, 9.9% and 10.2%, respectively. Beijing’s talent inflow and outflow ranked first in China, but the outflow increased year by year, and the outflow was significantly greater than the inflow, making the net inflow of talents account for – 0.7%, – 2.3%, – 2.7%, – 3.9%. From the source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Beijing in 2019 are Shanghai, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Langfang, Shijiazhuang, Xi’an, Chengdu, Shenyang and Wuhan, accounting for 44.7% of the total. Among them, there are 3 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, accounting for 15.6% of the total. The talent flow into Beijing is mainly due to its large economic volume and high salary level. In 2019, the GDP of Beijing will reach 3.5 trillion, ranking second only to Shanghai. Meanwhile, the salary of 8 out of 13 industries in Beijing ranks first among all cities. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Beijing are Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Langfang, Jinan, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang and Xi’an, accounting for 42.5% of the total. Among them, 7.7% of the talent outflow from Beijing flows to Shanghai, and 13.1% of the talent outflow from Shanghai flows to Beijing. Beijing and Shanghai are each other’s first target cities for brain drain. The talent outflow from Beijing to Shanghai and Shanghai to Beijing account for 0.8% and 0.6% of the total flow of talents in China, respectively. The increase of talents flowing out of Beijing is mainly due to Beijing’s control of population and deregulation of industries. In 2013, Beijing began to strictly control population. In 2015, the outline of coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei required Beijing to move out of the core functions of the capital. By 2020 and after, Beijing’s permanent resident population should be controlled within 23 million. According to the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, by the end of 2019, there were 22800 pieces of industrial and commercial registration business not handled in Beijing; from 2014 to 2019, 2759 general manufacturing enterprises were withdrawn from Beijing, and 631 markets and 122 logistics centers were improved. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in Beijing decreased by 489 in 2014-2018. In 2019, 29.7% of Beijing’s talent outflow comes from it, communication, electronics and Internet industries, which is higher than that of 8 key cities except Shenzhen, and 23.4% of Beijing’s talents flowing into this industry.
2) Shanghai: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was 1.3%, 1.2%, 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. The net inflow continued but gradually decreased, mainly due to the control of population and industrial transfer in Shanghai. From 2011 to 2019, the growth of Shanghai’s permanent population will obviously slow down, with an increase from 440000 to 40000, of which two years are negative. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in Shanghai was 6.3%, 6.1%, 5.6% and 5.2%, which continued to decline. The proportion of talent outflow was 4.9%, 4.9%, 4.7% and 4.8%, respectively. The inflow was greater than the outflow, and the net inflow of talent accounted for 1.3%, 1.2%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Shanghai are Beijing, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Hefei, Zhengzhou, Chengdu and Wuhan, accounting for 48.1% of the total, which is significantly higher than 45.7% of the top ten sources in 2018. Shanghai’s talent source concentration has increased. Among them, Beijing accounts for 15.1%, while there are 4 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 16.3% in total. Talents flow into Shanghai mainly because of its large economy and high salary level. In 2019, Shanghai’s GDP will reach 3.8 trillion, ranking first among cities in China. In 2019, 9.9% of Shanghai’s talents flow to business services, which is significantly higher than that of the other nine key cities. Among the 13 industries, Shanghai ranked first in terms of salary, 8 ranked second, and business service ranked first. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Shanghai are Beijing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Hefei, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Wuxi, accounting for 51.6% of the total. Among them, there are 5 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 25.9% of the total. The outflow of talents from Shanghai is mainly due to the control of population size and industrial transfer. In 2016, the 13th five year plan of Shanghai and the outline of Shanghai urban master plan (2015-2040) require that the permanent population of Shanghai be controlled within 25 million by 2020 and after. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from 2013 to 2018, there were 1666 Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in Shanghai. In 2019, 7.6% and 7.4% of the outflow of talents from Shanghai come from the service industry and financial industry, which are higher than those of the other nine key cities, and also higher than that of 4.4% and 5.7% of Shanghai’s talents flowing into this industry.
3) Shenzhen: in 2016-2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was – 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.2%, mainly due to the rapid economic development of Shenzhen and the attractiveness of talent policy; Shenzhen and Guangzhou are the first target cities for brain drain each other, and the outflow of talents from Shenzhen to Guangzhou and Guangzhou to Shenzhen accounted for 0.7% and 0.6% of the total amount of mobile talents in China, respectively, with a basically balanced scale. In 2015, the increase of permanent resident population in Shenzhen increased significantly from 150000 in 2014 to 600000, with an average increase of 560000 from 2015 to 2018. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in Shenzhen was basically stable at about 4.9%, accounting for 4.8%, 5.1%, 5.0% and 4.7%, respectively, but the proportion of talent outflow showed a downward trend, with 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.6% and 4.6% respectively. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Shenzhen are Guangzhou, Beijing, Tianjin, Dongguan, Shanghai, Chengdu, Changsha, Wuhan, Huizhou and Foshan, accounting for 52.8% of the total, which is higher than 50.4% of the top ten sources in 2018. Shenzhen’s talent source concentration has increased. Among them, there are 4 cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 22.9%; 13.1% of the talents flowing into Shenzhen are from Guangzhou, and 17.4% of the talents flowing into Guangzhou are from Shenzhen. Shenzhen and Guangzhou are the first cities of talent source for each other. Talent flow into Shenzhen is mainly due to the relatively rapid economic development and the attractiveness of talent policy. In 2019, Shenzhen’s GDP growth rate is 6.7%, higher than the national average of 6.1%, also higher than Beijing and Shanghai’s 6.1%, 6.0%; from 2016 to 2019, Shenzhen’s average GDP growth rate is 8.0%, higher than that of Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai by 7.0%, 6.6% and 6.6%. Huawei, especially Shenzhen, has a large number of talents. According to the data of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of human resources and social security, in 2016, Shenzhen increased the housing related subsidies for full-time undergraduates, masters and doctors from 6000, 9000 and 12000 yuan to 15000, 25000 and 30000 yuan, respectively. In 2017, the settlement threshold was relaxed to professionals under the age of 35 Three million, two million and 1.6 million awards will be given to talents, local leading talents and reserve talents respectively. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Shenzhen are Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shanghai, Beijing, Huizhou, Foshan, Changsha, Hangzhou, Wuhan and Chengdu, accounting for 53.9% of the total, which is lower than 56.4% of the top ten destinations in 2018. The direction of talent flow in Shenzhen is more dispersed. Among them, Guangzhou accounts for 15.0%, and there are 4 cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 32.3% in total. Talent flow in Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta region is frequent. 15.0% of the talent outflow from Shenzhen flows to Guangzhou, and 18.6% of the talent outflow from Guangzhou flows to Shenzhen. Shenzhen and Guangzhou are the first target cities for brain drain, and the outflow of talents from Shenzhen to Guangzhou and from Guangzhou to Shenzhen accounts for the total number of mobile talents in China 7% and 0. 6% respectively, and the scale is basically balanced.
4) Guangzhou: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was 0.3%, 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The net inflow of talents continued to grow steadily, mainly due to the rapid development of Guangzhou and the lowest living cost among first tier cities. The increase of permanent population in Guangzhou is on the rise, from 40000 to 400000 in 2011-2019. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in Guangzhou was basically stable at about 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2% and 3.9% respectively. In 2019, the proportion of talent outflow continued to decline, accounting for 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively. The inflow was greater than the outflow, making the net inflow of talents account for 0.3%, 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, increasing year by year. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Guangzhou are Shenzhen, Beijing, Foshan, Dongguan, Shanghai, Changsha, Chengdu, Wuhan, Zhuhai and Zhengzhou, accounting for 50.8% of the total. Among them, Shenzhen accounted for 17.4%, and there were 4 cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 29.6% in total. Talent flow into Guangzhou is mainly due to the rapid development and low cost of living. In 2019, the GDP growth rate of Guangzhou will be 6.8%, higher than that of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen by 6.1%, 6.0% and 6.7%. The cost of living in Guangzhou is the lowest among the first tier cities. According to the report on global cost of living in 2019 released by the economist think tank (EIU), a British economic analysis think tank, among 133 cities in the world, Shanghai and Shenzhen ranked 25th, Beijing and Guangzhou ranked 49th and 68th respectively. In 2018, the housing price to income ratio of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou were 27.8 In 21.5, 23.8 and 14.8 years, Guangzhou’s housing price and living cost were the lowest among the first tier cities. In 2019, 13.3% and 5.3% of Guangzhou’s talents flow into the trade, wholesale, retail, leasing and service industries, which are significantly higher than those of the other nine key cities. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Guangzhou are Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Beijing, Shanghai, Zhuhai, Hangzhou, Zhongshan, Huizhou and Changsha, accounting for 57.2% of the total. Among them, Shenzhen and Foshan accounted for 18.6% and 12.1% respectively, and there were 6 cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 44.9% in total. Compared with 13.6% of Beijing’s talents flowing to the Beijing Tianjin Hebei metropolitan area, 25.9% of Shanghai’s talents flowing to the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area and 32.3% of Shenzhen’s talents flowing to the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area, the proportion of Guangzhou’s talents flowing to the cities in the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area is significantly higher. On the one hand, most of the Pearl River Delta cities are Cantonese speaking cities with similar culture. On the other hand, there are a large number of universities in Guangzhou. Talents from Guangdong Province gather in Guangzhou for study and return to other cities in the province after graduation. According to the data of the Ministry of education, the number of ordinary universities and 211 universities in Guangzhou is 37 and 6 respectively, ranking the fifth and sixth respectively; according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of ordinary college students in Guangzhou in 2018 was 1.086 million, ranking first in China.
3.2 second tier cities: the proportion of net inflow of Han talents in Hangzhou, Ningxia and Chongqing is on the rise, while that of Tianjin and Chengdu is declining
In terms of the proportion of net inflow of talents in 2019, the six key second tier cities, Hangzhou, Ningxia, Chongqing, hanjinrong, are 1.4%, 0.9%, 0.3%, 0.1%, – 0.1%, – 0.7%, respectively, with the highest in Hangzhou and the lowest in Chengdu. From the perspective of the change in the proportion of net talent inflow from 2016 to 2019, Hangzhou has increased from 0.8% to 1.4% year by year, due to the rapid development of e-commerce industry and relatively high salary; Nanjing, Chongqing and Wuhan show an upward trend, rising from 0.8%, – 0.1%, – 0.3% to 0.9%, 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Nanjing’s economic growth rate ranks first among the ten cities, and the “ningju plan” is implemented in 2018 to attract talents and Chongqing’s information The technology industry has a strong attraction for talents. In 2017, Wuhan implemented the policy of “one million college students studying in China” to retain talents. The proportion of net inflow of talents in Tianjin has decreased year by year, from 0.2% to – 0.1%. This is mainly due to the slow development speed and the bottom of the ten cities in terms of salary level. Chengdu fluctuates from – 0.3% to – 0.8%, mainly due to the relatively low salary level.
1) Hangzhou: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was 0.8%, 1.0%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively, which was always positive and increased year by year, mainly due to the rapid development of industries represented by e-commerce in Hangzhou, and the salary surpassed that of Guangzhou, ranking fourth among the top ten cities. From 2013 to 2019, the increase of permanent resident population in Hangzhou gradually increased from 40000 to 550000, and Hangzhou ranked first in China in 2019. From 2016 to 2019, the inflow of talents accounted for 3.0%, 3.3%, 3.3% and 3.4% respectively, and the outflow of talents accounted for 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.1% and 2.0% respectively. The inflow of talents was significantly greater than the outflow, making the net inflow of talents account for 0.8%, 1.0%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively, increasing year by year, ranking the first in China from 2018 to 2019. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Hangzhou are Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hefei, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Suzhou and Chengdu, accounting for 46.6% of the total, which is significantly higher than 44.0% of the top ten talent sources in Hangzhou in 2018. The talent source concentration of Hangzhou has increased. Among them, the talents from Shanghai and Beijing account for 23.6%. The talents needed for Hangzhou’s development are mainly in the first tier cities, and Hangzhou has the ability to snatch talents from the first tier cities. Five of the top ten sources of Hangzhou come from the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 25.1% of the total. Talent flow into Hangzhou is mainly due to the rapid development of the industry, especially the e-commerce industry represented by Alibaba. According to the Statistics Bureau of Hangzhou, the added value of digital economy industry in Hangzhou will increase by 15.1% in 2019, among which, the added value of e-commerce industry is 14.6%, which is higher than the growth rate of Hangzhou GDP by 6.8%. In 2019, 28.8% of the talents flowing into Hangzhou will flow to it, communication, electronic and Internet industries, which is significantly higher than that of the other nine key cities. Among them, 12.8% will flow to the secondary industries of Internet / e-commerce, which is higher than that of the other 8 key cities except Chongqing. At the same time, Hangzhou’s salary is more attractive, ranking fourth among the ten key cities, higher than that of Guangzhou. Among the 13 industries, Hangzhou ranks first (transportation, transportation, logistics, warehousing), one ranks second, two ranks third, and seven ranks fourth. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Hangzhou are Shanghai, Beijing, Ningbo, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, Guangzhou and Jinhua, accounting for 44.9% of the total. Among them, 7 went to the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 32.3% of the total.
2) Nanjing: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was 0.8%, 0.9%, 0.9% and 0.9%, which was always positive and relatively stable, mainly due to the rapid development of Nanjing and the implementation of “ningju plan” in 2018 to attract talents. Compared with other cities mentioned above, the increase of permanent population in Nanjing is relatively stable, fluctuates in the range of 20000-100000 from 2011 to 2019 and 60000 in 2019. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in Nanjing was 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.9% and 2.8%, respectively, and the proportion of talent outflow was 2.3%, 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.9%, which decreased year by year, but the outflow of talent was significantly greater than the outflow, which made the net inflow of talents in Nanjing accounted for 0.8%, 0.9%, 0.9% and 0.9% respectively, which was basically stable. This is mainly due to the relaxed conditions for settlement and the rapid growth of electronic communication, manufacturing and other industries. In 2018, the “ningju plan”, i.e. the implementation measures for the settlement of talents, will no longer be based on employment, and the age conditions will be relaxed from 35 to 40. According to the Statistics Bureau data, in 2019, Nanjing’s GDP increased by 7.8% year-on-year, which was not only higher than 6.1% of the whole country, but also ranked first among the top ten major cities. In 2018, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Nanjing increased by 7.8% year-on-year, higher than 6.2% of the national total. Among them, the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 253.1%, 108.9% and 29.6% respectively, higher than 66.2%, 6.4% and 11% of the national total .2%。 From the source, the top ten cities that flow talents to Nanjing are Beijing, Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hefei, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Shenzhen, Xuzhou and Chengdu, accounting for 45.7% of the total. Five of them are in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 25.8% of the total. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Nanjing are Shanghai, Suzhou, Beijing, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Changzhou, Xuzhou, Hefei, Yangzhou and Zhenjiang, accounting for 49.5% of the total. Eight of them are in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 40.8% of the total. The talent interaction between Nanjing and the Yangtze River Delta is very frequent, partly because there are many universities in Nanjing. Talents from the Yangtze River Delta gather in Nanjing for study and return to other cities in the Yangtze River Delta after graduation. According to the data of the Ministry of education, the number of ordinary universities and 211 universities in Nanjing is 34 and 10 respectively, ranking 6th and 3rd respectively.
3) Chongqing: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents is – 0.1%, – 0.1%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. The main reason for the change from negative to positive in 2018 is that it industry has strong talent attraction. The increase of permanent resident population in Chongqing remains at a high level, with an average increment of 270000 from 2011 to 2019. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in Chongqing showed an overall upward trend, which were 1.3%, 1.3%, 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively. The proportion of talent outflow was 1.4% in 2016-2018 and increased to 1.6% in 2019, resulting in the proportion of net talent inflow being – 0.1%, – 0.1%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, which increased year by year and turned from negative to positive in 2018. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent flow to Chongqing are Chengdu, Beijing, Xi’an, Changsha, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Guiyang, Guangzhou and Wuhan, accounting for 62.8% of the total. Among them, the proportion of Chengdu flowing into Chongqing is 26.4%, which is higher than that of most cities, mainly because of its close geographical location and strong attraction of electronic industry. In 2019, 25.7% of Chongqing’s inflow of talents went to it, communication, electronic and Internet industries, which was higher than that of the other eight key cities except Hangzhou, and also significantly higher than the proportion of 13.1% of the outflow talents engaged in this industry. Among them, 14.4% of the inflow talents in Chongqing went to the secondary industries of Internet / e-commerce, which was significantly higher than that of the other nine key cities. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics and China’s electronic information industry statistical yearbook, the number of e-commerce enterprises in Chongqing increased from 640 to 2545 in 2013-2018, and the number of electronic information enterprises above designated scale in Chongqing increased from 68 to 540 from 2008 to 2017. According to the data of Chongqing Municipal Bureau of statistics, from January to November 2019, the revenue of Chongqing’s software and information technology service industry increased by 45.2% year-on-year, higher than 20.8% of the national revenue growth rate of information technology service industry in 2019. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Chongqing are Chengdu, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi’an, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Wuhan and Kunming, accounting for 51.0% of the total.
4) Wuhan: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was – 0.3%, 0.0%, 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. In 2017, it changed from negative to positive, mainly due to the implementation of the policy of “millions of college students studying in China”. From 2011 to 2019, the average increment of permanent resident population in Wuhan is 160000, and the permanent resident population keeps a high growth. From 2016 to 2019, the inflow of talents in Wuhan accounted for 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.7% and 1.9% respectively, and the outflow of talents accounted for 2.3%, 2.1%, 1.9% and 1.8%, which decreased year by year, making the net inflow of talents account for – 0.3%, 0.0%, 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. This is mainly because of the “million college students studying in China entrepreneurship and employment project” which started in 2017, college students can buy a comfortable house or rent a rental house at 20% lower than the market price; graduates under the age of 40 can settle down with graduation certificate, and master’s and doctor’s can be settled directly without age restriction; the guiding minimum annual salary standards of junior college, undergraduate, master’s and doctor’s are 40000 yuan and 50000 yuan respectively , 60000 yuan and 80000 yuan. According to the Organization Department of the Wuhan municipal Party committee, a total of 1.095 million college students will be added from 2017 to 2019, and the target of 1 million students in five years set in 2017 will be achieved two years in advance. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent flow to Wuhan are Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Xi’an, Hangzhou and Xiangyang, accounting for 45.0% of the total. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Wuhan are Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Yichang, accounting for 45.1% of the total.
5) Tianjin: from 2016 to 2019, the proportion of net inflow of talents was 0.2%, 0.1%, – 0.1% and – 0.1% respectively, which decreased year by year and turned from positive to negative in 2018. The main reason is that Tianjin’s development speed is slowing down, GDP growth rate of 5.3% in 2019 is the lowest among the ten cities, and the salary is the lowest among the ten cities. The increase of permanent population in Tianjin shows a downward trend, from 560000 to 20000 in 2011-2019. From 2016 to 2019, the proportion of talent inflow in Tianjin was 2.3%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.3%, which was relatively stable, with the outflow proportion of 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.3% and 2.4% respectively, which increased year by year, making the net inflow of talents account for 0.2%, 0.1%, – 0.1% and – 0.1% respectively, decreasing year by year. From the perspective of source, the top ten cities of talent flow to Tianjin are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Shijiazhuang, Langfang, Shenzhen, Tangshan, Baoding, Xi’an and Zhengzhou, accounting for 55.1% of the total. Among them, Beijing accounted for 31.8%, which was significantly higher than that of other cities, mainly because of its close geographical location. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of Tianjin brain drain are Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Shijiazhuang, Langfang, Jinan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Baoding, accounting for 54.5% of the total. Among them, Beijing accounted for 22.8%, which was significantly higher than the proportion of the first destination of other cities, mainly because of its close geographical location and more job opportunities in Beijing. The outflow of talents from Tianjin is mainly due to the slowing down of development speed and low salary level. According to the statistics of various municipal statistical bureaus, Tianjin’s GDP growth rate in 2019 is 5.3%, ranking first from the bottom of the top ten major cities; the average growth rate of GDP in 2017-2019 is 4.0%, which is far lower than the average growth rate of 12.6% in 2010-2016, and is far lower than the average growth rate of 7.2% and 7.9% in Hangzhou and Nanjing from 2017 to 2019; meanwhile, Tianjin’s salary is also lower than that of Hangzhou and Nanjing in 2017-2019 The average monthly salary in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 7813 yuan, ranking the bottom of the ten cities. Ten of the 13 industries in Tianjin rank last among the ten cities.
6) The main reason is that the net brain drain from Chengdu is – 0.3% to 0.3% from Chengdu in 2019, which is lower than that from Chengdu to 0.0% in 2016. The increase of permanent resident population in Chengdu shows an overall upward trend, from 20000 to 250000 in 2011-2019, with a large change of 1.26 million in 2016. From 2016 to 2019, the inflow of talents in Chengdu accounted for 2.3%, 2.8%, 3.7% and 2.9% respectively, and the outflow accounted for 3.2%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 3.6% respectively. The outflow was always greater than the inflow and the gap increased year by year from 2017 to 2019, making the net inflow of population account for – 0.8%, – 0.3%, – 0.3% and – 0.6% respectively. The net outflow of talents from Chengdu is due to the low salary level. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Chengdu’s average monthly salary was 8326 yuan, ranking second to last among the top ten key cities, and 7 out of 13 industries ranked second to last among the top ten cities. In terms of sources, the top ten cities with talents flowing into Chengdu are Beijing, Chongqing, Xi’an, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Mianyang, Changsha, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou and Guiyang, accounting for 47.5% of the total. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Chengdu are Chongqing, Beijing, Shenzhen, Xi’an, Shanghai, Mianyang, Meishan, Guangzhou, Deyang and Nanchong, accounting for 46.2% of the total. Among them, 17.9% of the talent outflow from Chongqing flows to Chengdu, and 13.6% of the talent outflow from Chengdu flows to Chongqing. Chongqing and Chengdu are each other’s first target cities for brain drain. The talent outflow from Chengdu to Chongqing and Chongqing to Chengdu accounts for 0.5% and 0.4% of the total flow of talents in China, respectively. In 2019, 30.6% of the outflow of talents from Chengdu comes from the real estate and construction industry, which is significantly higher than that of other nine key cities, and far higher than the 13.1% of Chengdu’s talents flowing into the industry.
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