2022 China’s macroeconomic situation analysis and forecast mid year report From Advanced Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

The following is the 2022 China’s macroeconomic situation analysis and forecast mid year report From Advanced Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy, research report.

The theme of the report is “deepening reform and opening up with greater efforts to stabilize the economic market”. Professor Tian Guoqiang, Dean of the Institute of higher studies of Shanghai University of Finance and economics and head of the research group for analysis and prediction of China’s macroeconomic situation, introduced that this research project is based on a large-scale quantitative quasi structural macro model of multiple departments, fully considering China’s national conditions, Chinese elements and Chinese characteristics, and putting short-term policy variables and medium – and long-term reform parameters into the model, It analyzes 15 fields and industries, including digital economy, education, environment and other sectors in addition to the sectors usually concerned. This time, it also adds green finance and welfare measurement of green transformation.

According to the calculation of the research group, under the benchmark scenario, the annual real GDP growth rate in 2022 is about 4.3%, CPI growth of 2.1%, PPI growth of 6.4%, GDP deflator growth of 3.4%, consumption growth of 1.8%, investment growth of 6.2%, export growth of 9.5%, import growth of 5.7%, and the RMB / US dollar exchange rate (CNY /usd) will fluctuate broadly in both directions around 6.8. Tian Guoqiang also said that in view of many factors that affect the results and accuracy of economic forecasts, including random variables such as policy instrument variables and their strength, economic fluctuations, emergencies, the epidemic situation in the previous half year and other factors, taking into account the increased policy strength, repeated epidemics, the increased risk of default of private enterprises and changes in the external environment, the research group has given seven different scenarios, and in order to achieve 5% economic growth, The adjustment intensity of fiscal policy or monetary policy beyond the benchmark assumption under different scenarios is simulated and analyzed. The research group not only gives short-term policy suggestions, but also pays more attention to the basic institutional arrangements and institutional mechanisms that affect the sound development of the economy, and gives medium – and long-term reform and governance suggestions. Professor Huang Xiaodong, the chief expert of the research group, made a detailed interpretation of the “2022 mid year report on China’s macroeconomic situation analysis and forecast”. He pointed out that since 2022, under the international and domestic complex situations such as the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, the rising risk of global stagflation and the recurrence of the COVID-19, the risks and uncertainties faced by China’s economy have increased, which temporarily deviated from the normal growth trajectory in the first half of the year, resulting in increased debt repayment pressure on real estate enterprises, difficulties in the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises, rising local government debt, and increased risk exposure of financial institutions Major risks such as the disorder of the supply chain of the industrial chain, the “internal contraction and external migration”, and the frequent rebound of the epidemic have posed challenges to the realization of the annual economic development goals. However, China’s economic development is resilient and has broad prospects. The favorable factors and conditions supporting the economic operation are relatively thick, market confidence has rebounded, and the fundamentals of long-term economic development have not changed. Looking forward to the second half of the year, with the effective prevention and control of the epidemic, the gradual emergence of the stimulus effect of a package of macro policies, and the full implementation of the “14th five year plan” projects, China’s economy will release huge growth potential, and the annual economic growth is expected to stabilize in a reasonable range.

The research group suggested that to do a good job in the economic work in the second half of the year, we should continue to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability, pay attention to the balance between short-term countercyclical hedging and long-term cross cyclical policies, deepen reform and opening up with greater efforts, speed up the construction of a unified national market, make every effort to stabilize the economic market, and escort the high-quality economic development.

Liuyuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and economics, said that the Institute of advanced research of Shanghai University of Finance and economics is a think tank platform built by the whole university. It has been 14 years since it regularly publishes China’s macroeconomic reports every quarter. It has formed certain characteristics and influence in China, played a role of consulting politics and enlightening the people, and formed a good brand effect.

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