2022 Industrial Development Report From United Nations Industrial Development Organization

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In December 2021, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization released the 2022 Industrial Development Report on the future of industrialization in the post epidemic era during the 19th general conference.
The report delves into the following four issues:
Existing structural factors affecting national resilience;
Industrial support measures given by enterprises and the government;
It may shape the general trend of industrial development in the future;
Policies to support inclusive, sustainable and resilient industrial recovery.
The main findings of the report include:
Covid-19 pandemic has penetrated into all corners of the world, and its impact on some countries, industries and workers is more serious than that in other countries;
Industrial capacity and digitization supported the resilience of countries during the pandemic;
The pattern after the pandemic will be determined by three important general trends: digitization, the transfer of economic strength and the greening of industrial production;
“Rebuilding better” requires new industrial policy methods and coordinated action by the international community.
Chapter I preparation
The report points out that COVID-19’s impact on the world surpassed any crisis in modern history.
Despite rapid economic recovery, world economic activity is still much lower than that predicted by COVID-19. According to the latest data, the gross domestic product (PPP) calculated by purchasing power parity (PPP) decreased by 4.2%, close to US $5 trillion and 900 billion, compared with the GDP forecast before COVID-19. This decline is equivalent to the combined GDP of Brazil and Turkey.
But COVID-19’s influence on the social and economic development of different countries is not balanced. Research shows that countries with better manufacturing systems can cope with the economic crisis better than other countries.
There is a significant negative correlation between the expected output loss in 2021 and the relative scale of manufacturing in 2019, both industrialized and newly industrialized countries. This initially shows that countries with strong manufacturing strength have lower expected output losses.
What is the reason why manufacturing is so important in the crisis period like COVID-19? One reason is that the industrial sector contributes to three important areas of economic resilience:
In the face of the impact of emergencies such as COVID-19, manufacturing industry not only provides support for economic resilience, but also plays a fundamental role in promoting common prosperity. Manufacturing has created employment and income, created innovation and multiplier effects, and promoted the development of other economic sectors.
The data also show that the most vulnerable groups of workers are more affected than other groups.
In vulnerable industries, there is a greater gap in employment elasticity, and all workers face a greater risk of unemployment, especially temporary workers.
Chapter II Countermeasures of enterprises and governments
The main conclusion of the report is that industrial capacity is crucial to economic resilience. The industrial capacity of the industrial sector is the individual and collective capacity, knowledge and production experience contained in the enterprise entities and organizations. It is the ability required by the enterprise to perform various production tasks, absorb new technologies and coordinate the production of the supply chain. It is found that the reduction of industrial capacity and expected production loss is very significant; Improving industrial capacity at the national level can reduce the impact of the epidemic on economic activities.
For manufacturing enterprises, during the epidemic period, manufacturing enterprises in countries with strong industrial capacity are usually more robust. As shown in the figure below, the sales decline of advanced digital enterprises is more than three times smaller than that of non advanced digital enterprises. Advanced digital enterprises can better cope with the negative impact of the crisis on sales, profits and unemployed workers. Improving industrial capacity will help reduce the impact of the epidemic on manufacturing enterprises.
Digital technology helps to improve the agility of enterprises to deal with the crisis and promote the implementation of epidemic response strategy. For example, digital capability can help realize the transition to telecommuting; The industrial application of Internet of things or virtual reality promotes the reorganization of production process, helps to comply with safety measures and maintain a safe social distance; Additive manufacturing solutions can help solve the shortage of some inputs or replace them.
Response policies have also played a key role in mitigating the impact of the crisis. At the beginning of the crisis, governments acted quickly to make up for the impact of falling demand and supply chain disruption. These include the most common measures, such as delayed payment of credit, issuance of new credit, tax reduction or exemption, delayed payment of rent and wage subsidies (73% to 37% of respondents), indicating that in the early stage of the epidemic, the actions taken by policymakers were mainly to provide timely assistance to enterprises and alleviate the short-term financial pressure of enterprises.
Chapter III future prospects
Digitalization, economic power transfer and green production are the three major trends that determine the future of industrialization. All these trends have been influenced by COVID-19.
COVID-19 has accelerated the digitalization process of various countries, but the difference between China’s developing countries and emerging industrial economies is very large, which limits the promotion of advanced digital manufacturing technology.
COVID-19 is expected to accelerate the shift of global industrial production to Asia. Despite the huge impact on China’s manufacturing industry in the early stage of the epidemic, the government has taken strong prevention and control measures, and its manufacturing industry can quickly return to the growth rate before the epidemic. On the contrary, the decline in industrial production in industrialized countries tends to last longer. Therefore, the proportion of China and other Asian developing and emerging industrial economies in global manufacturing production will continue to grow in 2020 and 2021.
Green industry will change the country’s comparative advantage. In the long run, industrial greening may affect the balance between industrialized economies and developing countries and emerging industrial economies, reflect industrial competitive advantages, and will produce new industries, thus completely changing the country’s comparative advantage.
Chapter IV better reconstruction
In the context of economic recovery in the post epidemic era, the goal of sustainable development should be incorporated into any industrial policy in the post epidemic era.
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