Analysis of China’s financial operation in 2021 and prospect in 2022 From NIFD
The following is the Analysis of China’s financial operation in 2021 and prospect in 2022 From NIFD recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy, research report.
On the whole, in 2021, the general public budget, government fund budget, state-owned capital operation budget and social security budget (hereinafter referred to as the “four accounts”) comprehensively exceeded the income and expenditure, and the comprehensive income and expenditure balance of the “three accounts” (excluding the social security budget) and the “four accounts” were less than the budget in 2021. It can be said that the actual implementation results of China’s financial operation in 2021 were better than expected. The national general public budget deficit accounts for 2.4% of nominal GDP, and the comprehensive deficit of “three accounts” and “four accounts” accounts for 1.7% and 0.9% of nominal GDP respectively. The comprehensive analysis of the “four accounts” adopts the official deficit caliber of China. From the perspective of the available financial resources of the government, the financial operation is better than expected; However, from the perspective of fiscal policy countercyclical regulation, the comprehensive deficit of the “four accounts” has a lower countercyclical regulation effect on the economy than expected by the general public budget deficit ratio.
In 2021, the scale of new local government general bonds and special bonds was effectively controlled, and the issuance scale of replacement and refinancing bonds was expanded, indicating that the historical debt burden needs to be alleviated year by year; The growth rate of general bonds is lower than that of special bonds, indicating that local governments still need to carry out project financing through large-scale special bonds.
Seven major issues need to be paid attention to in the financial operation in 2022: first, the complex external environment affects the global supply chain and economic growth; Second, the downward pressure on China’s economic growth is still large; Third, the risk of rising commodity prices and CPI increased; Fourth, the labor market is facing multiple imbalances and the pressure of supply and demand mismatch; Fifth, the financial risk exposure has intensified; Sixth, the pressure on the balance of revenue and expenditure of the general public budget is still large; Seventh, the expansion of fund revenue and expenditure of local governments is affected by the real estate market.
The geopolitical conflict in 2022 will further complicate the international situation. China’s economy is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. China’s macro policies should better coordinate development and security, solidly do a good job in the “six stabilities” work, fully implement the “six guarantees” task, accelerate the formation of a new development pattern of domestic and international double circulation, and improve the quality and efficiency of active fiscal policies, We will improve the sustainability of fiscal revenue and expenditure and continue to deepen fiscal and tax reform. First, improve the transparency of fiscal revenue and expenditure deficit, and evaluate the macro effect of fiscal policy from the comprehensive revenue and expenditure deficit of four accounts. Second, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure. Third, optimize government debt management. Fourth, improve the social insurance system. Fifth, improve the system construction of tax reduction and fee reduction. Sixth, actively prevent and control the potential debt risks of local governments.
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