China’s fertility cost report in 2022 From Yuwa population research
The following is the China’s fertility cost report in 2022 From Yuwa population research recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: research report.
The “birth cost” mentioned in this report includes not only the cost from pregnancy to childbirth (i.e. “birth cost”), but also the cost of parenting and Education (i.e. “birth cost”). Among them, “the cost of education” accounts for the majority, and “the cost of life” accounts for only a small part. In this report, “fertility cost” and “parenting cost” are used as synonyms.
Fertility cost is one of the most important factors affecting fertility willingness of families of childbearing age. According to the results of the national fertility sample survey conducted by the former national health and Family Planning Commission in 2017, the top three reasons for women of childbearing age not to have children are “heavy economic burden”, “too old” and “no one to take care of children”, accounting for 77.4%, 45.6% and 33.2% respectively.
This report estimates various childcare expenses based on the data of residents’ income and consumption expenditure and various prices released by the National Bureau of statistics. In 2019, the national per capita consumption expenditure was 21559 yuan, including 28063 yuan for urban residents and 13328 yuan for rural residents. Through research and analysis, the report draws the following conclusions:
The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in families across the country is 485000 yuan; The average parenting cost from 0 years old to undergraduate graduation is 627000 yuan.
By urban and rural areas:
The average cost of raising urban children aged 0-17 is 630000 yuan; The average cost of raising rural children aged 0-17 is 300000 yuan.
By 31 provinces:
The average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Beijing and Shanghai is 969000 yuan and 1026000 yuan respectively. In contrast, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Tibetan families is only 293000 yuan, and the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Guizhou Province is only 333000 yuan.
By income level:
The average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in low-income families, which account for 20% of the total population, is 116000 yuan;
The average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in middle-income families, which account for 60% of the total population, is 395000 yuan;
The average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in high-income families, which account for 20% of the total population, is 1.208 million yuan.
By children in urban and rural households:
The cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in urban areas is 631000 yuan;
The average cost of raising each child aged 0-17 in urban two child families is 497000 yuan;
The average cost of raising each child aged 0-17 in urban three child families is 377000 yuan.
The cost of raising a child aged 0-17 in rural areas is 381000 yuan;
The average raising cost of two child families in rural areas is 300000 yuan for each child aged 0-17;
The average raising cost of three child families in rural areas is 228000 yuan for each child aged 0-17.
International Comparison of parenting costs: the cost of raising a child to the age of 18 is 2.08 times that of Australia, 2.24 times that of France, 2.91 times that of Sweden, 3.64 times that of Germany, 4.11 times that of the United States, 4.26 times that of Japan and 6.9 times that of China, which is almost the highest in the world.
Due to the high birth cost and women’s difficulty in giving consideration to family and work, the average birth intention (ideal number of children) of the Chinese people is almost the lowest in the world. According to OECD data, the average ideal number of children in most countries is more than two, while the results of multiple fertility willingness surveys show that the average ideal number of children of Chinese people is less than two.
Recently, the national population data of 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics shows that the birth population in 2021 is 10.62 million, and the birth rate is 7.52 ‰. It can be seen that in 2021, China’s birth population hit a new low since 1949, and the birth rate hit the lowest level since records began. China’s birth population has continued to decline since 2017, and the birth population in 2021 has declined for the fifth consecutive year. The five-year decline is as high as 40%, less than half of the more than 20 million new-born population in the 1990s. It is no exaggeration to describe the current population situation with the collapse of the birth population. According to the calculation of 10.62 million new-born population, China’s total fertility rate in 2021 was only 1.15, which was not only lower than that of almost all countries in the world, but also much lower than that of Japan, which is seriously aging with fewer children.
The high birth cost is one of the most important negative factors affecting the reproductive intention of families of childbearing age. Therefore, it is urgent to introduce policies to reduce the reproductive cost of families of childbearing age at the national level as soon as possible. Specific measures include cash and tax subsidies, house purchase subsidies, the construction of additional nurseries, the provision of equal parental leave for men and women, the introduction of foreign nannies, the promotion of mixed office, the protection of the reproductive rights of single women, the permission of assisted reproductive technology, the reform of college entrance examination and school system, etc.
catalogue
1. Per capita consumption expenditure and composition of national residents
2. Estimate the average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in families across the country
3. Estimating parenting costs during college
5. Estimate the average parenting cost in 31 provinces
6. Estimate the average parenting cost of high-income, middle-income and low-income families
7. Estimate the cost of raising one, two and three children in urban and rural areas
8. The time cost and opportunity cost of raising children
9. International Comparison of parenting costs
10. International Comparison of ideal number of children
11. The number of marriages and marriage rate in China have declined for many years in a row
12. It is suggested to introduce policies to reduce fertility costs
13. Specific measures to reduce fertility costs
1) Cash and tax subsidies
2) House purchase subsidy
3) Construction of additional nurseries
4) Equal parental leave for men and women
5) Introduce foreign workers, including foreign nannies
6) Promote flexible office mode
7) Guarantee the reproductive rights of single women
8) Allow assisted reproductive technology
9) Education reform (reduce the number of college entrance examination papers and shorten the school system)
14. Conclusion
Chart catalog
Table 1: average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in China
Table 2: national average parenting costs from 0 years old to undergraduate graduation
Table 3: average cost of raising children in urban and rural areas
Table 4: average parenting cost of children aged 0-17 by Region (unit: yuan)
Table 5: average parenting costs of children aged 0-17 by income level
Table 6: cost of raising one, two and three children aged 0-17 in urban and rural areas
Table 7: multiple of the cost of raising a child to the age of 18 relative to per capita GDP in different countries
Table 8: ideal number of male and female children aged 15-64 in some countries and regions in 2011
Table 9: suggestions and estimated effects of measures to reduce fertility costs
Figure 1: per capita consumption expenditure and composition of national residents in 2019
Figure 2: proportion of parenting cost in total parenting cost at each stage
Figure 3: Parenting costs of children aged 0-17 by income level
Figure 4: Parenting costs of children aged 0-17 by child
Figure 5: multiple of the cost of raising a child to the age of 18 relative to per capita GDP in some countries
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1. Per capita consumption expenditure and composition of national residents
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics [1], in 2020, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents nationwide was 21210 yuan, including 27007 yuan for urban residents and 13713 yuan for rural residents. In 2020, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents in China decreased by 1.6% in nominal terms over the previous year, and 4.0% in real terms after deducting price factors. It is estimated that this is affected by COVID-19. Therefore, we use 2019 data instead:
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics [2], in 2019, the national per capita consumption expenditure was 21559 yuan, including 28063 yuan for urban residents and 13328 yuan for rural residents.
2. Estimate the average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in families across the country
Note: in this report, 0-2 years old refers to 0 to less than 3 years old;
3-5 years old refers to the age from 3 to less than 6 years old, corresponding to the kindergarten stage;
6-14 years old refers to the age from 6 to less than 15 years old, corresponding to the stage of nine-year compulsory education;
It refers to the age from 18 to 15 years old, corresponding to the age of 15-15 years old;
18-21 years old refers to 18 years old to less than 22 years old, corresponding to the undergraduate stage.
Parenting costs include the following two parts:
First, consumption expenditure, including education expenditure and non education expenditure. Education expenses include nanny fees, childcare fees, tuition and miscellaneous fees, teaching materials, reference books, extra-curricular books, educational software fees, transportation fees for learning, school selection fees, accommodation fees for school partners, extra-curricular counseling fees, and other education expenses. Non education expenditure includes food expenditure, clothing expenditure, housing expenditure, daily necessities expenditure, medical care expenditure, transportation and communication expenditure and entertainment expenditure.
Second, non consumer expenditure, including insurance expenditure, human relationship expenditure, donations, etc.
Consumer spending is the main part of the cost of raising, while non consumer spending accounts for only a small part of the cost of raising. The parenting cost estimated in this report mainly refers to consumer expenditure.
According to the national per capita consumption expenditure data in 2019, if the consumption expenditure of all age groups is the same, the average expenditure for raising children until the age of 18 is 21559 * 18 = 388062 yuan, of which the average raising cost of urban children is 28063 * 18 = 505134 yuan and that of rural children is 13328 * 18 = 239904 yuan.
But in fact, the consumption expenditure of all ages is not the same, so the above estimated cost is not accurate. The average parenting costs at different stages are estimated below.
The first is the cost during pregnancy, including card filing, nutrition, prenatal examination expenses and pregnancy preparation supplies. It is estimated that the average expenditure is about 10000 yuan.
The second is the cost of delivery and confinement, including hospitalization, spontaneous delivery or caesarean section, and painless delivery for some pregnant women. There is a big difference between the high standard and the low standard of this cost, and the estimated average expenditure is 15000 yuan. If you need to go to the maternity center after childbirth, the cost is higher.
Assuming that the cost of raising infants aged 0-2 is the same as the per capita consumption expenditure, the average annual cost is 21559 yuan, with a total of 64677 yuan in three years.
On the basis of per capita consumption expenditure, plus the kindergarten or preschool education expenditure of 1000 yuan per month (i.e. 12000 yuan per year), the average annual rearing cost of children aged 3-5 is 21559 + 12000 = 33559 yuan, a total of 100677 yuan for three years.
The education cost of children aged 6-17 is higher, while the parents’ own education expenditure is much less. For example, in February 2011, the Family Education Research Institute of China Youth Research Center established the “Research Group on the cost of urban family children’s education in the stage of compulsory education in China”, and then conducted a questionnaire survey and structured interviews among nearly 5000 parents of primary and secondary school students in eight provincial capitals, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Harbin, Shijiazhuang, Xi’an, Chengdu and Yinchuan. The survey showed that, The average annual expenditure of urban families on children’s education accounts for 76.1% of the total expenditure of children, 35.1% of the total expenditure of families and 30.1% of the total income of families. According to the data of China family tracking survey CFPS 2010-2018 released by China Social Science Survey Center (ISSs) of Peking University [3], the child rearing cost accounts for nearly 50% of family income, and the education expenditure accounts for 34% of the rearing cost.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the composition of per capita expenditure of residents in 2019, the expenditure on education, culture and entertainment was 2513 yuan. Assuming that there is an ordinary family of three (father, mother and children in middle school), the total expenditure on education, culture and entertainment of this family in 2019 is 2513 * 3 = 7539 yuan. Under normal circumstances, children account for the majority of the family’s expenditure on education, culture and entertainment, while parents account for only a small part. Therefore, we can estimate that the education, culture and entertainment expenditure of children in this family is 2513 * 2 = 5026 yuan, while the education, culture and entertainment expenditure of parents is 2513 yuan.
According to the above estimation method, we can add an education, culture and entertainment expenditure of 2513 yuan to the per capita consumption expenditure of 21559 yuan (including an education, culture and entertainment expenditure of 2513 yuan), that is, according to the price in 2019, the average annual rearing cost is 21559 + 2513 = 24072 yuan.
Considering that high school is no longer compulsory education, and some high school students live in school, we add 2000 yuan per year to the three-year raising cost of high school aged 15-17 on the basis of the raising cost of children aged 6-14, that is, the average annual raising cost is 24072 + 2000 = 26072 yuan.
According to the above method, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 is 485218 yuan, or about 485000 yuan.
3. Estimating parenting costs during college
Although Chinese law stipulates that 18 is the age of majority, and parents have no obligation to raise their children who have reached the age of 18, in fact, most college students still rely on their parents to pay their tuition and living expenses, so it is necessary to estimate the four-year rearing cost of college.
The tuition fees of public universities vary with different majors, generally 5000-8000 yuan per academic year, and 8000-10000 yuan per academic year for individual majors (such as arts, music performance, etc.). Tuition fees of private universities are generally 12000-20000 yuan per academic year. The accommodation fee is about 800-2000 yuan per academic year. The average tuition fee of public universities and private universities is 10000 yuan per academic year, the accommodation fee is 1500 yuan per year, and the living cost is 2000 yuan per month, so the annual rearing cost during the undergraduate period is 10000 + 1500 + 24000 = 35500 yuan, a total of 142000 yuan in four years.
According to the above method, the average parenting cost from 0 years old to undergraduate graduation is 627218 yuan, or about 627000 yuan.
It should be noted that the above is the average raising cost of each child. In fact, the raising cost of urban children is higher than that of rural children, and the raising cost of children from high-income families is higher than that of low-income families. Therefore, it is also necessary to estimate the child rearing costs of urban residents, rural residents, high-income families, middle-income families and low-income families respectively.
4. Estimate the average raising cost of urban and rural families
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents in 2019 is 130% of the per capita consumption expenditure of national residents, while the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents is 61.8% of the per capita consumption expenditure of national residents.
According to the above proportion estimation, the average raising cost of urban children aged 0-17 is 630783 yuan, or about 630000 yuan; The average cost of raising rural children aged 0-17 is 299865 yuan, or nearly 300000 yuan.
As for the four-year rearing cost of college, whether urban children or rural children, the tuition and accommodation fees are the same, and the difference is mainly the cost of living.
5. Estimate the average parenting cost in 31 provinces
According to the data in table 6-20 per capita consumption expenditure of residents in different regions of China Statistical Yearbook 2020, the per capita consumption expenditure of Beijing residents in 2019 was 43038 yuan, equivalent to 200% of the per capita consumption expenditure of national residents; The per capita consumption expenditure of Shanghai residents is 45605 yuan, equivalent to 212% of the national per capita consumption expenditure. By analogy, we can get the percentage of the national per capita consumption expenditure of 31 provinces equivalent to the national average.
If the proportion of parenting costs of residents in 31 provinces to the national average is the same as that of per capita consumption expenditure, we can get the average parenting costs of children aged 0-17 in 31 provinces, as shown in Table 4:
As can be seen from table 4, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Beijing and Shanghai is 969000 yuan and 1026000 yuan respectively. In contrast, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Tibetan families is only 293000 yuan, and the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in Guizhou Province is only 333000 yuan.
6. Estimate the average parenting cost of high-income, middle-income and low-income families
According to the data of China Statistical Yearbook 2020, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents in 2019 was 30733 yuan; Per capita disposable income grouped by quintile of income is as follows:
The per capita disposable income of 20% of low-income families is 7380 yuan
The per capita disposable income of families in the lower middle income group of 20% is 15777 yuan
The per capita disposable income of 20% middle-income families is 25035 yuan
The per capita disposable income of families in the upper middle income group of 20% is 39231 yuan
The per capita disposable income of 20% of high-income families is 76401 yuan
We combine the lower middle income group, the middle income group and the upper middle income group into a 60% middle income group. The per capita disposable income of families in the middle income group is 25035 yuan.
It can be seen from the above data that the per capita disposable income of families in the low-income group is 24% of the per capita disposable income of national residents, the per capita disposable income of families in the middle-income group is 81.5% of the per capita disposable income of national residents, and the per capita disposable income of families in the high-income group is 249% of the per capita disposable income of national residents.
If the cost of raising children from low-income, middle-income and high-income families is also in accordance with the above proportion, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in low-income families accounting for 20% of the total population is 116452 yuan, or about 116000 yuan; The average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in middle-income families, which account for 60% of the total population, is 395453 yuan, or about 395000 yuan; The average raising cost of children aged 0-17 in high-income families, which account for 20% of the total population, is 1208193 yuan, or about 1208000 yuan.
7. Estimate the cost of raising one, two and three children in urban and rural areas
The above estimate assumes that the cost of raising boys and girls is the same, and there is no distinction between children. In fact, the cost of raising different children is different. According to the survey report of the U.S. Department of agriculture [4], the raising cost of one-child families is 27% higher than the average raising cost of each child of two child families, while the raising cost of each child of three child families and above is 24% lower than the average raising cost of each child of two child families. In other words, if the raising cost of one-child is 1, the average raising cost of each child in two child families is 0.7874, and the average raising cost of each child in three child and above families is 0.5984.
Considering the difference in fertility rates between urban and rural areas in China, we can make reasonable assumptions: the average raising cost of urban children in this report is closer to that of urban one-child families; The average raising cost of rural children in this report is closer to that of rural two child families.
If a family has two children, the clothes, crawling pads and toys of one child can also be used by the second child, which can save some expenses. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the average clothing expenditure of residents across the country in 2019 was 1338 yuan. We can reasonably speculate that half of the clothes of two children aged 0-2 use the old clothes of one child, and the other half are newly bought. In this way, the clothing expenses for raising two children can save 669 yuan a year. In addition, children aged 0-2 do not have to have a separate room, which can save 5055 yuan in living expenses. In this way, the clothing and living expenses of raising two children aged 0-2 can save a total of 5724 yuan per year. If a family’s two children are four or five years older than one child, one child can also help parents take care of the two children, thus saving parents’ time and energy in taking care of the two children.
As mentioned earlier, if the cost of raising 0-2-year-old babies is the same as the per capita consumption expenditure, the average annual cost is 21559 yuan. If raising two children, the average annual raising cost of two children aged 0-2 is 21559-5724 = 15835 yuan. It can be seen that the raising cost of two children aged 0-2 is 5724 / 21559 = 26.55% lower than that of one child, or 5724 / 15835 = 36.15% higher than that of two children aged 0-2.
However, for children aged 3-5 and 6-17, the expenses of kindergarten and learning need to be paid separately, and after the children grow up, they also need a separate room, so the expenses saved in all aspects will not be as much as those in the age of 0-2. If the proportion of the cost of raising one child, two child and three child in Chinese families aged 0-17 is the same as that in American families (i.e. the proportion of the cost of raising each child in one child, two child and three child families is 1:0.7874:0.5984), the average cost of raising each child in Chinese Urban and rural one child, two child and three child families is shown in Table 6:
8. The time cost and opportunity cost of raising children
The direct cost of raising children is estimated above. In fact, raising children by families of childbearing age also needs to pay time cost and opportunity cost.
The time cost includes the time to take maternity leave and take care of children. Children under the age of 3 need to be taken care of. These three years are the time cost. If a nanny or sister-in-law is hired to take care of children, or children under the age of 3 are sent to nursery, the time cost can be reduced, but the cost should be increased. Children aged 3-5 are generally sent to kindergartens, which can reduce the time cost of parents, but it also takes a certain time cost to pick up children to kindergartens. When children aged 6-11 go to primary school, they generally need to be picked up and sent by their parents. They also need to pay the cost of time to help their children do their homework.
The most direct time cost is maternity leave. According to China’s special provisions on labor protection for female employees, female employees enjoy 98 days of maternity leave, including 15 days of prenatal leave; In case of dystocia, the maternity leave shall be increased by 15 days; For multiple births, the maternity leave will be increased by 15 days for each additional baby. Recently, the new family planning regulations revised by various provinces have generally extended maternity leave (the maternity leave in most provinces has been extended to 158 days) and added parental leave.
Although the extension of maternity leave helps women have more time to look after their children and is conducive to family parenting, if the costs brought by the extension of maternity leave are borne by enterprises, it will inevitably lead enterprises to avoid recruiting women of childbearing age as much as possible, thus aggravating women’s gender discrimination in the employment market. In addition, if the maternity leave is too long, it will lead to the long-term disconnection between female workers and the workplace, leaving the post for too long, which may lead to the decline of work skills and affect their competitiveness after returning to the post, which is the opportunity cost that women have to pay for raising children.
At present, the time cost and opportunity cost of raising children in Chinese families are mainly borne by women. It is difficult for them to take into account the heavy work in the workplace while raising children. At present, China’s social environment is not friendly to women’s childbirth, and the time cost and opportunity cost for women to have children are too high. Some women have to give up childbirth in exchange for the opportunity to succeed in their career. This is also one of the reasons for China’s low fertility rate.
At present, there is a serious shortage of childcare services under the age of 3 in China. In the absence of nurseries, couples are likely to need one of them to stop working and look after their children. However, more and more families need to rely on double income to cover their family expenses. According to the data of the former national health and Family Planning Commission, the enrollment rate of 0-3-year-old infants in various kindergartens in China is only 4%. China needs to vigorously develop inclusive childcare services and increase the enrollment rate of 0-3-year-old infants to about 50%, which will help reduce the time cost and opportunity cost of women raising children.
9. International Comparison of parenting costs
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total national GDP in 2019 was 99086.5 billion yuan, the total population at the end of the year was 1410.08 million, and the per capita GDP was 70300 yuan. According to the estimation of this report, the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in 2019 is 485000 yuan, which means that raising a child to just reach the age of 18 is equivalent to 6.9 times of per capita GDP. According to the definition of this report, “the cost of raising children aged 0-17” is synonymous with “raising a child until he has just reached the age of 18”.
Table 7 shows the multiple of the cost of raising a child to just reach the age of 18 relative to the per capita GDP in different countries. Since the data years in Table 7 are not exactly the same, it can only be used for reference and comparison. As can be seen from table 7, the dependency cost in Australia is only equivalent to 2.08 times of per capita GDP, that in the United States is equivalent to 4.1 times of per capita GDP, and that in South Korea is equivalent to 7.79 times of per capita GDP.
China’s dependency cost is equivalent to 6.9 times of per capita GDP, which is higher than all countries except South Korea in the countries listed in Table 7. South Korea’s fertility rate is now the lowest in the world, with a fertility rate of only 0.84 in 2020.
In general, the higher the multiple of the cost of raising equal to the per capita GDP, the greater the pressure of raising, so the fertility rate is often lower, but there are exceptions. As can be seen from table 7, the cost of support in Singapore is only equivalent to 2.1 times of per capita GDP. Why is Singapore’s fertility rate only about 1.1? Because although Singapore is a country, it is actually just a city. Although China’s fertility rate in 2020 was 1.3, higher than that of Singapore, China still has a vast rural area, and the fertility rate in big cities is far lower than that of Singapore. For example, the fertility rates in Shanghai and Beijing were only 0.74 and 0.87 respectively in 2020.
10. International Comparison of ideal number of children
Since the multiple of China’s parenting cost relative to per capita GDP is almost the highest in the world, the average fertility willingness (ideal number of children) of Chinese people is almost the lowest in the world.
Among the countries listed in Table 8, the average ideal number of children of men and women in most countries is more than two, while the results of multiple fertility willingness surveys in recent ten years show that the average ideal number of children of Chinese people is less than two. Here are some examples:
Example 1: according to the data of the main data bulletin of the 2006 National Population and family planning sampling survey published by the former State Family Planning Commission, the average ideal number of children of women of childbearing age is 1.73, and the average ideal number of children of women with agricultural household registration and non-agricultural household registration are 1.78 and 1.60 respectively.
Example 2: according to the data of the national fertility willingness survey conducted by the former national health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, the ideal number of children of urban and rural residents is 1.93, and the ideal number of children of single couples, single couples and ordinary families are 1.79, 1.83 and 1.95 respectively.
Example 3: according to the data of the national fertility sample survey conducted by the former national health and Family Planning Commission in 2017, the average ideal number of children of Chinese women of childbearing age was 1.96 from 2006 to 2016, while the average number of planned children of women of childbearing age was 1.75.
The OECD’s ideal number of children does not include data from Japan and South Korea. However, according to the survey data of kgss (Korea comprehensive social survey) and the world bank, from 2006 to 2014, the average ideal number of children of Koreans was 2.45 ~ 2.55. According to the survey data of JGSS (Japan comprehensive social survey) and the world bank, from 2000 to 2012, the average ideal number of Japanese children was 2.41 ~ 2.60. It can be seen that the average fertility willingness of Chinese people is significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea.
On January 20, 2022, at the regular press conference of the National Health Commission, Yang Jinrui, deputy director of the population and family Department of the National Health Commission, introduced that young people’s fertility intention continued to decline, and the average number of planned children of women of childbearing age was 1.76 in 2017, 1.73 in 2019 and 1.64 in 2021.
Both OECD data and China’s data show that the actual fertility rate is lower than the ideal number of children. This is because some couples suffer from infertility although they want to have children (according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2021, the infertility rate of couples of childbearing age in China has risen to about 12% – 18%), or miss the childbearing period. Moreover, for the urban working class, many young couples feel great pressure to raise a child. Even if they want to have a second child, they are finally discouraged from having a second child considering the high birth cost.
11. The number of marriages and marriage rate in China have declined for many years in a row
Nowadays, not only the cost of childbirth is too high in China, but also the cost of marriage is too high (the reasons for the high cost of marriage in rural areas include sky high bride price, and the reasons for the high cost of marriage in urban areas include high house prices). This is also one of the reasons for the continuous decline of the number of marriages and marriage rate in China in recent years.
According to the data of the Ministry of civil affairs, the number of marriage registrations in 2020 totaled 8143300 pairs, a decrease of 1.13 million pairs compared with 2019. This is also a decline for seven consecutive years after reaching 13.4693 million pairs in 2013, and a new low in nearly 17 years since 2003.
In European and American countries, illegitimate childbirth is very common. According to OECD data, in 2019, the proportion of illegitimate children in newborns in EU countries averaged 41.3%. Among them, the proportion of children born out of wedlock in France is as high as 60.4%. However, in China, marriage and childbirth are closely related, and the proportion of illegitimate children in newborns is very low. Therefore, the decline of marriage registration will inevitably have a negative impact on the fertility rate.
It should be noted that in the marriage registration data, the data more closely related to the birth population is the number of first marriages, because the number of marriage registration also includes some elderly people who remarry. Since the elderly have passed the childbearing period, it has no impact on the birth population. The number of first marriages in China continued to decline after reaching the peak of 23.8596 million in 2013, and decreased to 12.286 million in 2020, a decrease of 48.5% over 2013.
From 2013 to 2020, the number of registered marriages and first marriages in China has decreased for seven consecutive years. Why has the number of marriage registrations in China been declining in recent years? There are several reasons:
The first is the decline in the number of young people. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the population of post-80s (born in 1980-1989, and so on), post-90s and post-00s in China are 223 million, 210 million and 163 million respectively, showing a downward trend as a whole.
Secondly, due to the rising cost of marriage, high work pressure, and the significant improvement of women’s education level and economic independence, contemporary young people’s willingness to marry has generally declined.
In addition, due to the high sex ratio at birth and the common phenomenon of more men and fewer women in China since the 1980s, this is also an important reason for the decline of marriage registration in recent years. According to the 2020 census, there are 34.9 million more men than women in China’s total population, and more than 30 million of them are distributed at different ages. Among them, there are 17.52 million more men of marriageable age aged 20-40 than women.
12. It is suggested to introduce policies to reduce fertility costs
According to the “China population forecast report 2021 edition” released by Yuwa population in December 2021 [5], China’s fertility rate in 2021 is likely to have dropped to 1.1, one of the lowest in the world, and China’s parenting cost relative to income in terms of house price and education is almost the highest in the world. If the current ultra-low fertility rate cannot be improved, China’s population will rapidly become less and older, which will have a serious negative impact on innovation and comprehensive national strength. According to China’s forecast, by 2050, it will be reduced to 1.264 billion, and China’s population will be reduced to 685 million by 2100, accounting for 6.5% of the world’s total, while the new born population will only be 2.56% of the world’s new born population. By then, China will no longer be a populous country. According to this trend, the population advantage accumulated by the Chinese nation for thousands of years will be lost in 100 years. In order to maintain the sustainable development of society and the inheritance of the Chinese nation, we must launch a policy of vigorously encouraging fertility to reduce the cost of parenting.
On July 20, 2021, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the decision on optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development, which proposed to reduce the cost of fertility, parenting and education. On August 20, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress passed a decision on Amending the population and family planning law. Article 27 of the new family planning law stipulates that “the State shall take financial, tax, insurance, education, housing, employment and other support measures to reduce the burden of family fertility, parenting and education.”
Some places have taken the lead in introducing policies to reduce the burden of family upbringing. Here are some examples:
For example, in July 28, 2021, Panzhihua, Sichuan Province announced and detailed the sixteen policy measures on promoting human resources gathering in Panzhihua, where 500 yuan child care allowance was issued to each child in Panzhihua registered residence with two or three children per month, until the child was 3 years old.
Example 2: on September 15, 2021, Linze County, Gansu Province issued the implementation opinions of Linze County on optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting the long-term balanced development of the population (for Trial Implementation), which stipulates that the second child will be given 5000 yuan of childcare subsidy every year, and the third child will be given 10000 yuan of childcare subsidy every year until the child is 3 years old. Registered residence in the public kindergartens in the jurisdiction of the Linze permanent residence, two children per student per school year to grant 1000 yuan of subsidy, three children per student per school year to grant 2000 yuan of funding. For the two registered residence of three children in Linze, the government subsidized 40 thousand yuan for the purchase of commercial housing in the urban area.
Case three, in October 21, 2021, the Shihezi municipal government of Xinjiang issued the implementation plan for promoting the development of care services for infants under 3 years of age. The household registered residence for two or three children with a prescribed child birth costs 500 yuan and 1000 yuan per child per month, until the child is 3 years old.
Example 4: on December 20, 2021, Jilin Province issued the implementation plan on optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development, Article 10 stipulates: “implement the maternity incentive policy. Support all localities to give a certain proportion of incentives and rewards to families with two or three children before their children reach the age of 3 or 6, and the provincial finance will give appropriate subsidies according to the situation, in accordance with the current charging standards of care and education fees of ordinary public nurseries and child care institutions.” Article 11 stipulates: “provide marriage and childbirth credit support. Support banking institutions to provide up to 200000 yuan of marriage and childbirth consumer loans to couples who meet the relevant conditions, and give different degrees of interest reduction according to the birth of one child, two children and three children.”
However, so far, these are local policies, and the strength is far from enough. It is a drop in the bucket for hundreds of thousands to millions of parenting costs. Only the central government has the strength to substantially reduce the burden of parenting. We can make a simple estimation. The cost income ratio of parenting in China is 6.9, while that in other developed countries is 2-4. If the future birth rate is 1%, it needs 3-5% of GDP investment every year to reduce the cost income ratio of parenting to the level of other developed countries. (specific calculation is (6.9-2) / 1% to (6.9-4) / 1%) This is a total investment of several trillion yuan, and the central government has such financial resources. Unfortunately, the central level has not yet introduced the policy of paying childcare subsidies. We suggest that the national level should introduce policies to reduce the reproductive costs of families of childbearing age as soon as possible.
13. Specific measures to reduce fertility costs
Specifically, the main measures to reduce the reproductive cost of families of childbearing age are as follows:
1) Cash and tax subsidies
Due to the large income gap between different regions and groups, we suggest paying equal attention to individual income tax reduction and cash subsidy, and reducing individual income tax by means of child capitation tax for high-income families. Since people with lower income do not need to pay individual income tax, the tax reduction and exemption is not applicable to low-income families, for which cash subsidies can be issued directly.
According to OECD data, the proportion of cash subsidies to family welfare in GDP in some developed countries in 2017 is as follows: 2.12% in the UK, 1.42% in France, 1.24% in Sweden, 1.08% in Germany, 0.65% in Japan and 0.15% in South Korea. It can be seen that the proportion of cash subsidies to family welfare in GDP in European countries is much higher than that in Japan and South Korea, which is one of the reasons why the fertility rate in European countries is generally higher than that in Japan and South Korea.
We can draw on the experience of these countries to formulate specific subsidy policies: for each child of a two-child family, we will give a cash subsidy of 1000 yuan per month. A cash subsidy of 2000 yuan per month will be given to each child of a multi child family until the child reaches the age of 20. For families with two children, the income tax and social security will be halved, and the income tax and social security of families with three children will be exempted (for particularly wealthy families, a ceiling subsidy can be set).
Estimated effect: this part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 20% and give birth to 2 million more children every year.
2) House purchase subsidy
Now, an important reason that restricts couples of childbearing age from having children is the high house price. The house price income ratio in China’s big cities is the highest in the world. Although the income in big cities is also high, the house price is higher. The high cost of living in big cities is mainly due to the high house prices. For others, such as clothing, food, housing and transportation, big cities are not much more expensive than small cities, and the cost of education will not be much more expensive if it is public education. Therefore, in big cities, the high cost of raising is mainly reflected in house prices. This is one of the important reasons why the fertility rate in big cities is lower than that in small cities. According to the data of Qipu, the total fertility rate in China in 2020 was 1.3, of which the total fertility rates in Shanghai and Beijing were only 0.74 and 0.87 respectively, while the total fertility rates in Shandong, Henan, Jiangxi and other provinces were about 1.4.
In order to reduce the burden on childcare families, in addition to cash and tax subsidies, we also need to stick to the policy of buying houses for families with many children. The specific way can be subsidized through mortgage interest return or house price discount. For example, 50% of the mortgage interest of two child families can be returned, and the mortgage interest of three child families can be fully subsidized. Or in areas with high house prices, the policy of 10% off the house price of one child, 20% off the house price of two children and 50% off the house price of three children can be implemented (no more than the upper limit of a cap subsidy). The cost of this subsidy can be covered by increasing the supply of housing and land in population inflow areas and large cities.
Estimated effect: this part of the measures can increase the fertility rate by about 20% and give birth to 2 million more children every year.
3) Construction of additional nurseries
According to the world bank, in 2019, the labor participation rate of women aged 15-64 in China reached 68.6%, while the world average was 52.6%. Due to the relatively high rate of female labor participation in China, many couples in China today are double employees. One of the main reasons why a large number of young people are afraid to have two or three children is that the time and energy cost of child care is high, which is especially reflected in the difficulties of children entering nursery, kindergarten and school. In particular, there is a serious lack of childcare services for children under the age of three. According to the data of the former national health and Family Planning Commission, the enrollment rate of 0-3-year-old infants in various kindergartens in China is only 4%. We propose to increase the enrollment rate of children aged 0-3 to about 50%. To achieve this goal, it is necessary for the government to directly or take the lead in the construction of at least 100000 child care centers. According to the calculation that there are 40 million children aged 0-3, the operating cost of 20000 yuan per child is subsidized. Combined with the goal of 50% enrollment rate, about 400 billion financial subsidies are required every year.
Estimated effect: this part of measures can increase the fertility rate by about 10% and give birth to 1 million more children every year.
The above three are the most important measures to encourage fertility. The total financial investment required accounts for about 5% of GDP, which can significantly reduce the cost of parenting and effectively improve the fertility rate.
We have made a correlation analysis between fertility encouragement and fertility rate in various countries. The results show that if 1% of GDP is used to encourage fertility on average, the fertility rate will increase by 0.1. Of course, this is only a correlation, which can only support rather than prove the effectiveness of encouraging fertility. But there is no data to support that encouraging fertility has no effect. Some Nordic and Western European countries have introduced generous policies to encourage fertility and achieved relatively high fertility rates. For example, both France and Sweden have spent 3-4% of GDP to encourage fertility, and their fertility rate is also 1.8 to 1.9, close to the replacement level. In contrast, in southern European countries, the efforts to encourage fertility are generally only gdp1-2%, and the fertility rate is generally lower than 1.5. In recent years, Germany has increased its efforts to encourage fertility, which was originally low, and the fertility rate has also increased.
Since China’s fertility cost is higher than that of most developed countries relative to income, which is similar to that of South Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate, China needs to raise the fertility rate of 1.1 to the level of developed countries, and 1.6 needs higher efforts to encourage fertility than them. 5% of GDP can almost raise the fertility rate to about 1.6. Although it is still far from the replacement level, the problem of low fertility is at least not more serious than that in developed countries.
In addition, we also put forward the following suggestions to encourage fertility. Some projects only need less or no financial investment, but they need to be adjusted in concept and law. The effect is not as big as the previous ones and not so fast. However, due to the serious problem of China’s fertility rate, various measures to improve the fertility rate are very worthy of consideration.
4) Equal parental leave for men and women
The “maternity leave” mentioned in this paper includes female maternity leave, male paternity leave and parental parental leave. At present, China’s maternity leave regulations are: female employees enjoy 98 days of maternity leave, including 15 days of prenatal leave; In case of dystocia, the maternity leave shall be increased by 15 days; For multiple births, the maternity leave can be increased by 15 days for each additional baby. So far, the vast majority of provinces have adopted the newly revised population and family planning regulations, generally extended maternity leave and added parental leave.
If we only extend women’s maternity leave, it will inevitably lead to enterprises being unwilling to recruit women, which will aggravate women’s gender discrimination in the job market. In order to alleviate the worries of working mothers about giving birth to children, the government should bear the labor cost during maternity leave. In addition, we suggest the introduction of a relatively equal maternity leave policy for men and women, which will help protect women’s rights and interests in employment and career development and correct gender discrimination in employment.
From international experience, many high welfare countries have relatively long maternity leave and parental leave. For example, Sweden’s fertility policy encourages couples to participate in childcare. At present, Swedish parents can get 480 days of paid parental leave together, of which both parents enjoy 90 days of parental leave that cannot be transferred to each other. This is mainly to ensure equity and shared parental responsibility. In recent years, Sweden’s fertility rate is about 1.8, second only to France among European countries.
The experience of Europe and other countries shows that integrating the gender equality concept of family roles into the parental leave system and stipulating the father’s family responsibilities through law can not only promote equal opportunities between men and women in the workplace and the sharing of responsibilities in housework, but also help to eliminate gender discrimination in the employment market.
Estimated effect: these measures can increase the fertility rate by about 3% and have 300000 more children every year.
5) Introduce foreign workers, including foreign nannies
Although there are maternity leave and nurseries, for professional women, taking care of children still requires a lot of time and energy. In fact, they can also hire nannies to help with housework.
But in Chinese cities, the employment of high-priced nannies who take care of children all day has exceeded the affordability of many urban white-collar workers. For example, the monthly salary of experienced nannies in Shanghai has reached tens of thousands. With the improvement of China’s per capita income, the salary of nannies from Southeast Asian countries will be much lower, which will save these families a lot of expenses.
Take Hong Kong, China as an example. According to the statistics of the Hong Kong government, in 2013, one family hired foreign nannies for every three families with children. In 2019, there were 399000 foreign nannies in Hong Kong, China, including 219000 from the Philippines and 170000 from Indonesia. The minimum wage of foreign nannies is HK $4630 per month, and the average wage is HK $4765, equivalent to about 4000 yuan. According to the average salary of nannies in China’s big cities of 10000 yuan, each nanny can save 6000 yuan per month and 72000 yuan per year for Chinese families. Hong Kong, China, has a population of only 7.5 million and employs nearly 400000 foreign nannies. If the Chinese mainland introduces 3 million foreign nannies, it will save about 200000000000 of the total cost for these families.
From the perspective of talent introduction, China should also make greater efforts to promote the introduction of all kinds of talents, especially to create convenient conditions for the return and development of overseas Chinese. However, China is not a traditional immigrant country and may be far less attractive to international talents than the United States. Migration is unlikely to be the main means of addressing low fertility. Nevertheless, in order to promote exchanges and reduce labor costs, it is necessary to receive all kinds of talents and foreign workers more openly. The introduction of a large number of temporary foreign nannies can play a direct role in reducing the cost of childbirth.
Estimated effect: these measures can increase the fertility rate by about 2% and have 200000 more children every year.
6) Promote flexible office mode
With the maturity of teleconferencing and cooperative work software in Internet technology, telecommuting has become mature in technology, and because of the influence of COVID-19, enterprises are forced to realize telecommuting. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and apple have normalized the mode of remote work and launched different mixed office systems. Recently, Ctrip China announced that nearly 30000 employees in the company will implement a mixed office system, allowing employees to work remotely from home every Wednesday and Friday. This is the first large company in China to launch a “3 + 2” mixed working system. China’s high-tech companies represented by Ctrip are actively trying the mixed office mode and have achieved good results. Not only did the work efficiency not decline, but also greatly improved employee satisfaction. The social effect of mixed office is also obvious, which not only reduces the congestion of commuting, but also helps environmental protection, family harmony, alleviate high house prices and improve fertility.
Mixed office mode can allow parents to spend more time with their children and reduce the heavy pressure of parenting. Especially for female employees with children, through the mixed office mode, they can save several hours of commuting time every week and work at home two days a week. Male employees can also spend more time with their children and share housework. Of course, the most profitable is professional women, who can allocate time more flexibly and accompany their children and family more, so as to better balance family and work. The promotion of mixed office mode can alleviate the anxiety of professional women, reduce the pressure and conflict of career development and childcare, and improve the reproductive willingness of women of childbearing age.
Estimated effect: this part of measures can increase the fertility rate by 4% – 10%, and have 400000-1 million more children every year.
7) Guarantee the reproductive rights of single women
Children born out of wedlock refer to the children born to men and women without legal marriage. According to OECD data, in 2018, the average proportion of children born out of wedlock in EU countries was 41.3%, and the average proportion of children born out of wedlock in OECD member countries was 40.7%. The proportion of children born out of wedlock in France is 60.4%, much higher than the average proportion of EU countries. The proportion of children born out of wedlock in the United States is 39.6%, slightly lower than the average proportion of EU countries and OECD countries.
Many countries in the world have introduced some measures to protect the rights and interests of unmarried mothers and children born out of wedlock. For example, in order to encourage childbirth, the French government can get the same family subsidies at the level of social welfare, whether born in wedlock or out of wedlock. The more children, the more subsidies. In terms of property inheritance, the Civil Code stipulates that children born in wedlock and children born out of wedlock enjoy exactly the same rights. The marriage rate of women in Nordic countries is lower than that in Japan, but they maintain a high fertility rate. The main reason is that these countries are more tolerant of illegitimate childbirth, and the government has provided rich parenting benefits, so that many single women are willing and able to bear and raise children independently.
In China, although the Civil Code stipulates that “children born out of wedlock enjoy the same rights as children born in wedlock, no one may harm or discriminate against them.” But in fact, because children born out of wedlock are not supported by law, if unmarried mothers (or single mothers) are on the job, the examination fee, operation fee, hospitalization fee, delivery fee, medicine fee and other expenses that should be paid by maternity insurance cannot be reimbursed. Many places require newborns to provide birth certificates, marriage certificates and other relevant materials to the public security department. Unmarried mothers or women born after divorce cannot apply for Hukou for their children after they are born because they have no marriage certificate
We propose to abolish any policy that discriminates against children born out of wedlock and fully protect the legitimate rights and interests of children born out of wedlock, including legislation to protect children born with technical assistance such as artificial insemination and test tube baby, and unconditionally register children born out of wedlock. We do not encourage out of wedlock childbirth, but believe that women who have the ability and willingness to raise children independently should fairly enjoy the rights and benefits of childbirth.
China currently has no statistics on children born out of wedlock. If the reproductive rights of single women are guaranteed, it is estimated that the proportion of children born out of wedlock in the birth population will increase by at least 2%, which is equivalent to 200000 children based on the annual birth population of 10 million.
Estimated effect: these measures can increase the fertility rate by about 2% and have 200000 more children every year.
8) Allow assisted reproductive technology
In today’s society, although many couples want to have children, they suffer from infertility. In 2021, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the infertility rate of couples of childbearing age in China has risen to about 12% – 18%. If they want children, they need the help of assisted reproductive technology. In addition, modern working women should take into account their degrees, and their career and family often conflict in energy and time. Highly educated women tend to postpone marriage or choose to be single. For unmarried women in their 30s, they also need the help of reproductive technology, such as frozen eggs and artificial insemination, to realize their desire to have children.
However, at present, the development of assisted reproductive technology in China is subject to some restrictions. For example, the code for human assisted reproduction (wkjf [2003] No. 176) issued by the former Ministry of health stipulates: “it is prohibited to implement human assisted reproductive technology to couples and single women who do not meet the provisions of national population and family planning laws and regulations.” In practice, this regulation makes single women unable to use sperm bank, frozen eggs and other artificial assisted reproduction related technologies to exercise their reproductive rights.
In fact, many western countries allow single women to use assisted reproductive technology (including frozen eggs). In 2012, the United States took the lead in opening the frozen egg service to women. In October 2014, apple and Facebook announced that they would provide frozen eggs as a benefit for female employees. According to the data of CDC, 2.1% of the birth population in the United States in recent years has adopted assisted reproductive technology. Israel has the highest fertility rate in today’s developed countries. As early as the 1980s, IVF technology has been popularized and applied in Israel. By the 1990s, the density of fertility clinics in Israel was the highest in the world. Israel is the only country in the world that provides almost full subsidies for assisted reproductive technology for women under the age of 45. Women of school age can enjoy such subsidies regardless of whether they are married or not until she has two children.
In fact, many single women in China have the demand for frozen eggs, and many professional medical institutions in China have the technology to implement frozen eggs. However, because the relevant domestic laws and regulations prohibit single women from implementing human assisted reproductive technology, some single women have to choose to freeze their eggs overseas, and the cost is much higher than that in China. In 2018, Ctrip group launched a fertility welfare project within the company, including providing 100000 yuan to 2 million yuan and 7-day annual leave for female middle and senior managers of the company, so that they can enjoy high-tech auxiliary fertility benefits such as frozen eggs. Ctrip has also become the first large-scale technology enterprise in China to provide this reproductive welfare project.
We suggest that the cost of infertility treatment in China should be included in the medical insurance. In addition, the law should also allow single women (or unmarried women) equal rights to use assisted reproductive technology. According to the 2.1% proportion of assisted birth in the United States, the proportion of assisted birth in China is still very small. If the assisted reproductive technology is fully opened, it is possible to reach the same proportion level.
Estimated effect: these measures can increase the fertility rate by about 2% and have 200000 more children every year.
9) Education reform (reduce the number of college entrance examination papers and shorten the school system)
In addition to the direct financial costs, Chinese parents spend almost the highest amount of money and energy on their children’s further education in the world. This is partly one of the main reasons for inhibiting fertility. From the data point of view, the fertility rate of developed Asian countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Japan is generally 0.5 children lower than that of European and American countries, which is very related to the great pressure of these countries in examination, further education, school selection and make-up classes. China’s unique college entrance examination system makes the educational pressure of Chinese parents no lower than those in these countries. According to statistics, the make-up and learning time of Chinese students is the highest in the world. Therefore, reducing the pressure of entering a higher school and choosing a school will significantly improve China’s fertility rate. Its role may be greater than any single cost reduction measure mentioned above, but the reason why I put the education reform last is because the education reform is not only a matter of money, but an extremely complex system design involving the interests of all parties. There is little possibility of substantial progress in the short term.
Although there are great difficulties, we still need to put forward some idealized suggestions as the goal of long-term reform. The fundamental change is to reduce all kinds of hierarchical examinations. The most ideal is to put the hierarchical examination after college graduation (equivalent to postgraduate entrance examination). Then save almost two years of examination preparation in middle school. Specifically, we should popularize university education, postpone the diversion of general posts to universities and even graduate students, cancel the middle school entrance examination, dilute the college entrance examination into a college qualification examination, and dilute the undergraduate education of famous universities. Graduate schools and employers of famous universities screen students through college graduation examination (that is, postgraduate entrance examination). In this way, middle school students do not need to waste two years of question brushing time for the high school entrance examination and the college entrance examination. Therefore, the learning in the middle school stage can be shortened by two years, so that most students can graduate from college at the age of 20, go to society or enter graduate school two years in advance.
Of course, we know that the above reforms are very bold and avant-garde, controversial and difficult, and involve many vested interests. However, without deep-seated examination and school system reform, any local reform will be ineffective and even cause greater waste and distortion. Moreover, the current education system has not only led to low fertility, but also caused huge social waste and brain drain. Therefore, the potential benefits of reform are enormous, and it is worth taking the reform of the education system as the goal of long-term reform. For example, just looking at the direct effect of shortening the school system, if most people can graduate from college two years in advance, the additional two years will be an additional 5% contribution and income for everyone’s 40 year career, that is, they can improve the efficiency of the whole society by at least 5%. Especially for highly educated women, after two more years, they will have more time to fall in love, organize family and career development.
Estimated effect: the education reform is too complex, and it is difficult to predict the policies to be implemented in the future, and the effect of raising the fertility rate is also very difficult to estimate. However, the ceiling is very high, which can increase the fertility rate by up to 30%, which is greater than any previous single measure.
14. Conclusion
According to the calculation of 10.62 million new-born population released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s total fertility rate in 2021 was only 1.15, which was not only lower than that of almost all countries in the world, but also much lower than that of Japan, which is seriously aging with fewer children. Fewer children will have a far-reaching impact on China’s economic growth potential, innovation vitality, dependency burden, people’s happiness index and even national rejuvenation. The sharp shrinking of population also means the continuous weakening of scale effect and the decline of comprehensive national strength. The root cause of China’s almost lowest fertility rate in the world is the almost highest fertility cost in the world. There are many reasons, including education, housing and other factors. It is very necessary to adopt a number of policies to encourage fertility to significantly reduce the cost of parenting. In the face of the dual downward pressure on China’s economy and population, we propose to effectively alleviate the economic downturn and boost social confidence by encouraging fertility and increasing population. Vigorously encouraging childbearing will help expand domestic demand, stabilize growth and stabilize employment in the short term; In the long run, it will help improve human resources, human capital, economic and social vitality, enhance confidence in China’s economic development, and enhance China’s innovation and competitiveness.
reference:
[1] National Bureau of Statistics: household income and consumption expenditure in 2020http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202101/t20210118_1812425.html
[2] National Bureau of Statistics: household income and consumption expenditure in 2019http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202001/t20200117_1723396.html
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[12] US Dept. of Agriculture：The Cost of Raising a Child.https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child
[13] Cabinet Office Policy Office of symbiotic social policy：Raising child costs 63 million yen: study.https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2001/05/15/national/raising-child-costs-63-million-yen-study/
[14] Statistics Canada, Money Sense：The Cost of Raising a Child in Canada. [15] Bank of New Zealand Baby Budget Calculator：The financial cost of raising a child.https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-financial-cost-of-raising-a-child/CHX7FCGJJIZJCIVFBM64QIMH6I/
[16] Child Poverty Action Group：THE COST OF A CHILD IN 2021.https://cpag.org.uk/policy-and-campaigns/report/cost-child-2021
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