Enlightenment of strategic reorganization of automobile chip From Deloitte Consulting
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Technology iteration drives the rapid development of chip industry
The continuous maturity of underlying technologies such as 5g and the Internet of things will drive the continuous development of electrification and intelligence in downstream segments, thus continuously promoting the steady growth of the demand of the global chip industry. It is estimated that by 2025, the market scale of the global chip industry will reach 630 billion US dollars. From the perspective of vertical segmentation, with the progress of technology, the fields of automobile, industry, communication and consumer electronics will usher in industry transformation, and then expand the total demand for chips. Among them, automobile will become the main driving force driving the growth of the chip industry. Data show that in the next five years, the compound growth rate of automobile chips will be about 10%, ranking first.
The black swan event restricts the release of capacity on the supply side
The global chip industry is highly cyclical. According to the global chip inventory index, as of the second quarter of 2021, the global chip inventory index is less than 0.9, and the global market is in a period of serious chip shortage.
The chip industry chain covers chip design, chip manufacturing, chip packaging and testing, and each link is mainly distributed in different countries and regions. The upstream chip design enterprises are mainly distributed in Europe and America, the midstream manufacturing enterprises are mainly concentrated in Japan and Taiwan, and the downstream packaging and testing enterprises are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Since 2020, covid-19 epidemic has swept the world, resulting in the shutdown of various factories of enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Although the epidemic control has gradually stabilized and all countries and regions have returned to work and production in an orderly manner, the supply side production capacity is restricted due to different degrees of epidemic recovery in various countries and regions.
In addition to the impact of the epidemic, natural disasters in some countries and regions further restricted the release of supply side capacity. The fire and earthquake significantly affected the production capacity of Renesas electronics, a vehicle specification chip supplier in Japan, and the large-scale power outage caused by the blizzard in Texas in the United States forced Samsung, Texas Instruments and NXP to stop production, which continued to deteriorate the global chip supply capacity.
The epidemic stimulates downstream market demand
Under the influence of the epidemic, telecommuting has driven the demand for electronic devices such as intelligent mobile terminals, computers, tablets and Internet connected devices. In 2020, the global silicon wafer shipment increased by 13.9% compared with 2019, and the shipment reached a record high. Under the continuous pull of downstream demand, as of the third quarter of 2021, the capacity utilization rate of global wafer factories has reached 95%, tending to the peak capacity, and the capacity to expand production in the short term is limited.
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