Global food outlook 2020 From Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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According to a report released today by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, global food trade is expected to remain active in the coming year, even though international food prices remain high due to uncertain supply and demand

The report said trade volume continued to record high during the new crown epidemic. Indeed, at the global level, trade in agricultural products (especially non perishable food) is stronger than the overall trade in the commodity sector.

Therefore, FAO currently predicts that the total global food imports will reach US $1.72 trillion in 2021, an increase of 12% over the peak of US $1.53 trillion in 2020. However, rising prices have raised concerns that higher spending costs may still mask the worsening of dietary trends in vulnerable countries in terms of quantity and nature.

The food outlook report, released twice a year, assesses the supply and demand trends of major global food markets, including grains, vegetable oils, sugar, meat, dairy products and fish, and studies the trend of futures markets and the transportation costs of food commodities.

Main conclusions

The report points out that in the next year, the global output of major grain commodities is expected to increase, except sugar, which is expected to decline for three consecutive years and lower than global consumption, and the stock will decrease.

Global wheat and rice supply is strong. Although global output is expected to reach a record high in 2021, coarse grain inventory is expected to decline, reflecting the consumption scale of livestock feed and industrial starch.

According to the forecast, the ratio of global final inventory to consumption of wheat will be 38.0%, rice will be stable at 35.1%, higher than the five-year average, and coarse grains will drop to 20.8%.

In 2021, the global meat production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 346 million tons, reflecting the rebound expectation of China’s meat production, which benefits from substantial investment in the value chain and efforts to prevent and control the spread of African swine fever.

After lifting the relevant restrictions of COVID-19 for one year, the demand for restaurant meals has resumed, and global fish production is expected to rebound and prices may rise.

Grain trade and price

At the global level, the export of grain and agricultural products in 2020 will increase by nearly 520% over the previous year   With an annual growth rate of 3.2%, developing countries account for about 40% of the increase.

In 2021, the value of global agricultural trade in terms of exports is expected to grow by 8%, or 1 370   100 million dollars. Most of the growth is driven by East Asian demand, but the composition of the imported food basket is expected to change significantly, largely due to the recovery of China’s livestock industry after overcoming African swine fever.

The proportion of grain import in the total import is rising, which can be used as an early warning indicator of potential crisis in some regions. For example, the cost of imports in low-income food deficit countries could increase by 20 per cent, five times that of the group of least developed countries. Countries whose export earnings, including tourism revenues, have been hit hard by the epidemic may be particularly vulnerable.

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