Global one-year to ten-year climate update From Met Office
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The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide countries to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, control the global warming rate within 2 ℃ in this century, and strive to further limit the warming to 1.5 ℃.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change, the climate related risks to natural and human systems caused by global warming of 1.5 ° C are higher than the current level, but lower than the risks caused by 2 ° C.
According to the latest climate Bulletin released by WMO, there is a 93% chance that at least one year from 2022 to 2026 will become the hottest year on record, and 2016 will be the top year. According to the global one-year to ten-year climate update prepared by the Met Office, the probability that the five-year average value in 2022-2026 will be higher than that in the past five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.
Increased probability
Since 2015, the probability of temperature exceeding 1.5 ℃ temporarily has gradually increased, while the probability in 2015 is almost zero. From 2017 to 2021, the probability of exceeding is 10%. Between 2022 and 2026, this probability has increased to nearly 50%.
The briefing pointed out that exceeding 1.5 ° C in a single year does not mean that we have broken the landmark threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are getting closer to exceeding 1.5 ° C in a longer period of time. “
According to the interim report of the World Meteorological Organization on the state of global climate, in 2021, the global average temperature was 1.1 ° C higher than the baseline before industrialization. The final draft of the 2021 global climate report will be published on May 18.
According to the report, the La Nina event that followed at the beginning and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on the global temperature, but it was only a temporary phenomenon and could not reverse the long-term trend of global warming. Any development of El Ni ñ o events will immediately exacerbate the temperature rise. As in 2016, it is the hottest year ever recorded.
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