Impact of epidemic situation on various industries and future development trend From kpmg

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The following is the Impact of epidemic situation on various industries and future development trend From kpmg recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: kpmg , research report.

The novel coronavirus pneumonia undoubtedly has a profound impact on the current China’s economy. From retail catering, accommodation and tourism, transportation, culture and entertainment industries’ revenue drops sharply, manufacturing industry, real estate, construction and construction industry resume work slowly due to limited flow of people and logistics, and then to the emergence of technology companies such as remote office, online education, online medical treatment and fresh logistics, the epidemic has brought different challenges and opportunities to all industries in China Some changes may have a profound impact on the future development trend and competition pattern of the industry.

“Novel coronavirus pneumonia industry impact and future development trend” focuses on 10 major industries, including banking, information management, insurance, retail, manufacturing, automotive, medical and Life Sciences, technology, real estate, energy, etc., to analyze the opportunities and challenges of various industries and prospect the future development of the industry.

bank

The epidemic situation has an impact on the income and cash flow turnover of some enterprises and families, and has a certain short-term impact on the banking business, but it will not have a fundamental impact on the development of the banking industry in the long run. At the same time, online financial business is more recognized, and the transformation of outlets, the use of financial technology, and comprehensive financial services have become the focus of attention of banks in the future.

Increased credit for industries affected by the epidemic and small, medium and micro enterprises

Five novel coronavirus infections, including the central bank and other departments, jointly issued the notice on further strengthening financial support for the prevention and control of new type of coronavirus infection in pneumonia. Banks are required to increase support for financing of SMEs affected by the epidemic and difficulties in production and operation. It is supported by. The central bank has also provided more preferential credit support to key enterprises for epidemic prevention and control by issuing special re loans. At the same time, monetary policy is also more relaxed: on February 3, the central bank launched a 1.2 trillion reverse repurchase operation, and cut the 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase rates by 10 basis points; on February 17, the central bank carried out the 200 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and the 100 billion yuan seven day reverse repurchase operation And cut MLF interest rate by 10 basis points; 1-year LPR and more than 5-year LPR released on February 20 also decreased 10 basis points and 5 basis points respectively. On the one hand, the banks increased the credit supply to the industries and small and medium-sized and micro enterprises affected by the epidemic, on the other hand, reduced the loan interest rate, which narrowed the short-term interest spread of banks. Although some of the pressure is shared by finance, banks also need to pay attention to the change of interest rate spread in the short term.

Asset quality is under pressure in the short term, but still controllable in the long term

Tourism, accommodation, catering, retail, transportation, entertainment and culture, offline education and other industries are directly affected by the epidemic. Most of these industries are small and medium-sized enterprises. The weakening of business capacity, cash flow and repayment ability of enterprises may lead to a certain number of non-performing loans or even bad debts. Some local regulatory authorities have also increased the tolerance of non-performing loans of small and micro enterprises. As banks usually use expected credit loss model for risk management, banks also need to adjust loan provision in the first half of the year. At the same time, the epidemic situation makes many enterprises and personal income decline in a short term, which will also have a certain impact on bank deposit and loan business, and the expansion of intermediary business of banks is hindered. Overall, the epidemic will have a negative impact on the short-term revenue of the banking industry. But in the long run, the recovery and rebound of the economy after the epidemic will also improve the capital situation of the affected enterprises, with limited long-term impact on the banking industry.

Digital transformation accelerates

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, regulatory authorities have repeatedly stressed the strengthening of online business services, guiding enterprises and residents to handle financial business through the Internet, mobile app and other online means. It is expected that the new business model based on the development of financial technology will further develop and play a positive role, and the transformation of bank outlets will also be accelerated.

Asset management

Under the background of opening up the financial market to the outside world and implementing the new regulations on asset management, the new crown epidemic has suddenly come, which makes China’s asset management and wealth management industry face new challenges. On the whole, in the short term, the liquidity risk of some investment debts that are greatly affected by the epidemic situation will increase, the scale of non-performing assets may be expanded, non-standard investment will face greater pressure, and the operation pressure of wealth management and asset management companies focusing on offline service mode will also be more severe. At the same time, the epidemic will also bring growth opportunities to leading enterprises and new online formats. In the long run, after the outbreak, high liquidity assets, high growth industries and diversified asset allocation will still be welcomed by the market.

Stabilizing capital market and increasing financing support

In recent days, financial regulatory authorities have jointly issued various measures to ensure smooth financial services and support epidemic prevention and control and the real economy. Since the opening of the domestic stock market on February 3, investors’ trading has been smooth. In addition to the sharp decline in the first day of the market, the market has gradually stabilized and a net inflow of funds from the North has emerged. The fund product explosion has brought incremental funds to the market. At present, market confidence and trading are active. On February 14, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued relevant policies on refinancing, which will help listed companies ease the cash flow tension caused by the epidemic situation, and help to build a more dynamic capital market in the medium and long term. Recently, in response to the transitional period of the new asset management regulations, the CIRC also indicated that flexible arrangements should be given to individual institutions.

Digital operation, online and offline integration and transformation

After returning to work during the Spring Festival, more than 90% of the business of public funds and most securities companies were handled through online channels, and the company’s trading and customer service were basically unaffected by the epidemic. The trend of off-site transaction and service will be strengthened, which will further promote the transformation of online and offline integration and accelerate the functional transformation of physical business outlets. The industry can actively promote the off-site technology such as face recognition to promote the compliance of high-risk business, and improve the management and application of digitalization in business, so as to lay a solid foundation for digital operation and digital supervision.

Attention should be paid to the market of non-performing assets and partial equity withdrawal

In 2019, under the background of industrial upgrading and transformation and stricter supervision, the scale of non-performing assets accumulated in the domestic market has increased. The epidemic has a great impact on some industries. Some enterprises are facing greater pressure and even sustainable risks. The scale of non-performing assets is likely to rise. For the equity investment in these industries, if the agreed exit time is short-term, it may be difficult to exit.

High liquidity assets, high growth industries and diversified allocation will still be valued

The impact of the epidemic situation, the financial industry needs a period of time to adapt and adjust. Customers will be more inclined to high liquidity assets and high growth industries, the reasonable combination of domestic and foreign assets will be paid more attention, and the asset allocation structure will change. High net worth clients need to avoid a single portfolio. Equilibrium portfolio and long-term investment concept can reduce the impact of short-term market volatility.

Insurance

Short term insurance revenue and profits under pressure

The epidemic situation has a significant impact on the offline business of insurance. The end of the year and the beginning of the year is usually the peak sales season of insurance companies, which accounts for an important proportion of the annual premium income. The outbreak of the epidemic at this time, which should have made a good start, has a great impact on new business, especially the regular payment and security insurance. The decrease of new business also makes the allocation of insurance assets more difficult. In addition, although the epidemic prevention work has received financial support from the government, the duration of the epidemic is long, and the health insurance compensation will also increase, making the profits of insurance companies under pressure.

The epidemic has also increased public attention to insurance services

At the same time, the epidemic has also triggered a new round of insurance purchase upsurge. The public’s attention to the uncertainty of future risks makes life insurance and serious illness insurance for individual customers welcome. During the epidemic period, insurance agents increased online insurance publicity and online Q & A, partially offsetting the negative impact of being unable to obtain customers offline.

China’s insurance market has a huge space for future development

At present, the depth and density of China’s insurance is far lower than that of developed countries. With the improvement of per capita GDP and the enhancement of national insurance awareness, the insurance industry has broad prospects for growth. The spread of the epidemic is wide, and the first to fourth tier cities are affected, and the insurance consumer population is expected to further sink. Due to the epidemic situation and global locust events, the optimization of agricultural insurance catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism has been put on the agenda, and the establishment of China Agricultural Reinsurance Company will be accelerated. The opening up of the industry will also accelerate the development of health insurance and endowment insurance, and will drive the business development of relevant insurance types, such as health insurance and agricultural insurance, and bring new development opportunities for related insurance types.

retail

Short term revenue and profit suffered

The epidemic directly affected the revenue of retail stores. Restaurants, shopping malls, department stores, specialty brand stores, cinemas and tourism trips were closed down, resulting in setbacks in the consumption categories of fashion luxury goods and liquor. Although traditional supermarkets, convenience stores and street stores maintained their business to meet the needs of the people’s livelihood, the same traffic was seriously down, and fixed operating costs such as labor, rent and Inventory were positive Frequent occurrence, and bank loan interest expenses make cash flow turnover under pressure, and operating profit will drop sharply, which directly challenges the survival of enterprises. On the other hand, although the order volume of online shopping platform and o2o home service has increased sharply, the limited price rise and high service standard will suppress the profit, which will present the inverted situation of increasing volume and decreasing profit.

Competition pattern accelerates differentiation

At the same time, the strategic contraction of the offline layout to improve the overall performance and efficiency. Enterprises with weak operation will be greatly impacted, while those with high gross profit category and online business layout in advance will take the opportunity to expand market share and seize the resources of customers, talents, stores and suppliers of small and medium-sized and micro enterprises; meanwhile, it will accelerate the acquisition and integration of small chain stores and independent brand stores with platform mode; the upstream and downstream will jointly build cooperation and symbiosis In order to fight against the epidemic situation, it is necessary to establish alliance relationship between shopping malls and merchants, consumer goods suppliers and channels. While the development of each subdivision industry presents a strong Matthew effect and the strong will always be strong, the competition pattern within the subdivided industries will aggravate the differentiation. The competition is no longer the competition between individual enterprises, but enterprises join the collaborative alliance ecosystem to build symbiotic relationship within the system. At the same time, there will be Legion and systematic competition among the ecosystems.

Collaborative integration of supply system

Due to the limitation of epidemic prevention and control measures, the supply side is affected by the limited transportation capacity of the supply chain, the rising cost of product procurement, the shortage of production supply and the delay of distribution rework. At the same time, the improvement of consumers’ awareness of food, health, safety and health, as well as the growth of demand for online products and distribution services, also accelerate the integration, socialization, collaboration and platform trend of the supply chain. The supply chain collaboration system has become the stabilizer of the consumer retail industry. The supply chain platform focuses on the integration of product sourcing and procurement and the improvement of logistics efficiency. It focuses on physical commerce, community distribution, home delivery and consumption portraits. It strengthens accurate terminal service and obtains accurate demand docking platform, so as to realize the ability of precise selection, low-cost and high-quality commodity procurement, quality-oriented transportation and precise distribution, so as to jointly improve the terminal service experience.

Community business is expected to break out

The barriers of rigid demand categories such as fresh daily necessities have been broken in the epidemic situation. After the elderly user groups are online, the community e-commerce user base, recognition and acceptance will be enlarged. The human settlement infrastructure promoted by China’s urbanization process provides an environmental foundation for community e-commerce. Large supermarkets and o2o home service platform jointly provide services to consumers in the epidemic situation, and the cooperation mode has been verified Success, the advantages of new social channels such as wechat, high cost-effective goods supported by integrated supply chain, good delivery experience in the near field of the community, low operating cost of pre-sale mode, and large-scale replicability, etc. have promoted the outbreak of community e-commerce in the future. At the same time, the intervention of the capital side will form a more fierce competition pattern in this field. Real estate developers and community property, intelligence Home appliances, o2o home service, supply chain platform, brand goods and service enterprises, technology companies and so on all expect to gain profits.

The opportunity of unmanned retail

In the epidemic situation, the attempts of unmanned self lifting, robot distribution and unmanned retail stores have broken through the psychological barriers of distribution and receiving. Unmanned stores, unmanned shelves, and automatic sales are effective supplements to terminal retail in transportation hubs, community commerce, hospitals and schools, which provide a good service platform for express delivery and delivery services At the same time, with the innovation and application of automatic picking shelves and automatic conveying equipment in the supply chain segment, with a large number of integration of the supply chain, the advantages of scale will bring about the improvement of storage efficiency and service quality. At the same time, the rapid development of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of things and big data are actively seeking application scenarios in the terminal and back-end operation of unmanned retail, and the future value is expected to further develop.

manufacturing

Return to work and production affected by epidemic prevention and control

Epidemic prevention and control measures will affect the flow of personnel and activities, and then affect logistics, making the manufacturing industry, especially the labor-intensive industries, suffer from the impact of raw material supply and labor shortage. In recent years, the policy has repeatedly stated that it is necessary to promote the coordinated resumption of work and production in all links of the industrial chain, especially to give priority to the restoration of production and supply of leading enterprises and key links that have an important impact on the global supply chain, so as to ensure China’s important position in the global manufacturing industry.

Intelligent factory and intelligent manufacturing will be further developed

We will promote automation and flexible production, employ more high-tech talents and skilled and multi skilled workers, reduce dependence on labor, and better cope with labor fluctuations. At the same time, more and more attention will be paid to the standardization of spare parts, the intellectualization of logistics and the enhancement of anti risk ability of supply chain.

Digital transformation and remote intelligent service will be actively used

The deep application of digital technology can help improve the cooperation efficiency of employees, grasp the key elements to promote business growth, respond to the fluctuation of market demand more efficiently, and realize product innovation; and the remote intelligent service based on industrial Internet can provide remote guidance through AR, AI and other technologies to monitor the running state of equipment and give fault warning. It can be seen that the practical application of Bi, big data analysis and AI technologies will be paid more attention, and there is an urgent demand for data analysts.

automobile

Automobile manufacturing and supply chain are impacted

Wuhan is one of the six major automobile industry cluster development cities in China, which has gathered five automobile enterprises, namely Dongfeng passenger car, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Peugeot dragon automobile, Dongfeng Renault and SAIC general motors. The vehicle factory has attracted a large number of parts enterprises to gather, covering the chassis, gearbox, body, electronics, interior, glass and other major parts. The continuous shutdown will not only have an impact on the vehicle manufacturers in Wuhan area, but also have a certain impact on the upstream and downstream enterprises through the industrial chain. Due to China’s important position in the world automobile industry chain, the automobile manufacturing industry in Japan, South Korea, etc. has also been impacted.

Short term auto sales under pressure, but expected to recover after the end of the epidemic

The epidemic situation has a great impact on automobile sales in 4S stores. According to the survey conducted by China Automobile Circulation Association, only 573 4S shops have completed the work resumption among the 2895 dealers surveyed, with a return rate of less than 20% 2. However, traffic restrictions caused by the epidemic and the emphasis on private space will also promote the growth of car sales in the future. After the end of the epidemic, the temporarily postponed car purchase demand can be released, and the car sales market may usher in a small peak. In order to stabilize the automobile market, some cities are expected to relax their purchase restriction policies and even introduce new incentive measures. For example, on February 18, Foshan City launched a policy to encourage the purchase of “national six” vehicles, and from March 1, it granted subsidies of 2000-5000 yuan per vehicle, becoming the first city 3 to introduce automobile consumption incentive policies this year. Auto sales are expected to pick up steadily after the outbreak.

Automobile finance accelerates development

The income and employment of residents are affected by the epidemic, and more attention has been paid to maintaining the liquidity of assets. In this context, auto finance will be more widely accepted and used because of its flexible payment method, smaller cash flow burden and lower interest rate under loose monetary policy.

Medical and Life Sciences

Research and development of innovative drugs and medical devices were strengthened

Through this epidemic, it is bound to pay more attention to the research and development of various drugs and reagents for virus detection, inhibition and treatment, and the public’s use of products like influenza vaccine will be greatly increased. Therefore, it is expected that more pharmaceutical enterprises will strengthen the R & D and manufacturing of innovative drugs and medical devices.

Health management and health care awareness improvement

After the end of the epidemic, people will have higher demand for health management and health care, which will promote the growth of medical consumption. Through this epidemic, the public’s attention to the related respiratory system diseases and infectious diseases has increased significantly, and the awareness of disease prevention, early treatment, treatment methods and drugs, disease prognosis and harm is also more in-depth, which is conducive to disease prevention, especially the sales of household prevention products (home disinfection, personal protection).

Rapid development of Internet medicine

Driven by the epidemic situation, Internet hospitals, online diagnosis and treatment, and various online pharmacies have received unprecedented attention. The government, the industry and the public have a better understanding of the emerging channels, and have solved the problems of medical treatment and dispensing for many patients with non emergency chronic diseases and common diseases in special periods. Therefore, Internet hospitals, online pharmacies and other emerging diagnosis and treatment and drug acquisition platforms or channels will get better application and development in the future. In addition to the changes in the structure of pharmaceutical product sales channels, objectively, channel diversification will also promote the growth and improvement of the number of people treated for chronic diseases and common diseases and their compliance, so as to improve the quality of related diseases through the optimization of medicine supply side structure The number of patients visited and treated.

AI enabled medical R & D

The Ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) recently issued a document calling for giving full play to the function of artificial intelligence, encouraging the tackling of key problems and mass production of a batch of auxiliary diagnosis, rapid testing and intelligent equipment to help intelligent diagnosis and treatment of epidemic diseases. It is a good opportunity for the medical AI industry with image AI products as the mainstream – it will further promote telemedicine and intelligent medicine, and solve the problem of insufficient medical resources. The manufacturing enterprises that provide relevant products and solutions will usher in new development opportunities.

The ability of primary medical service needs to be strengthened

One of the problems exposed in this epidemic prevention and control is that the grass-roots medical personnel are insufficient and lack of ability, and have not played the role of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system. As of November 2019, there are 960000 primary medical and health institutions in China, accounting for 95% of the total number of medical and health institutions. However, the proportion of patients receiving treatment is only 52%. The utilization rate of beds in township hospitals was 60.4%, which was significantly lower than that in hospitals (84.5%). After the epidemic, the government’s investment in primary medical capacity is expected to be strengthened, and the construction of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system will be strengthened to make it play a more active role in the medical security of the whole people.

The production of medical products is more intelligent and flexible

China is the world’s largest producer and exporter of masks, accounting for half of the world’s production. However, in the face of the outbreak of epidemic, it is still difficult to find a cover in a short period of time. Of course, there is the impact of production suspension during the Spring Festival, but in the future, more flexible and socialized collaborative production will also help to ensure the demand of medical products at critical moments. For example, BYD and Sinopec have introduced production lines and cross-border production of masks reflects the flexible manufacturing capacity of enterprises. At the same time, a more reasonable distributed supply chain layout can also reduce the impact of local emergencies on the whole supply chain and ensure the impact on the supply of medicine and medical products.

science and technology

Science and technology enterprises gain development opportunities

In the prevention and control of epidemic situation, the great role of science and technology has become increasingly prominent. Compared with many industries affected by the epidemic, the impact of science and technology industry is less, and many enterprises even get more development opportunities. For example, as the epidemic situation reduces the opportunities for offline communication, the technology industry represented by communication services, online services, cloud services, artificial intelligence, and intelligent service platforms has developed rapidly in this round of epidemic. Online education, online health care, online life services and other projects are facing unprecedented market demand; unmanned retail, unmanned distribution and other high-tech industries are rising strongly; providing various distribution platforms and door-to-door service platforms such as intra city logistics, customized catering distribution, errand running, etc. are increasingly recognized. At the same time, the “online” office, such as home office and remote office, which is not limited by geographical space, especially the office software that can realize individual collaboration, will be the development trend in the future. In addition, people pay more and more attention to health management and health care awareness, including private doctors, private psychologists and various “online” consulting services. The role of science and technology enabling the medical and health industry is becoming more and more obvious.

Electronic and electrical manufacturing supply chain is affected

As the epidemic prevention and control measures limit the flow of population, resulting in the phenomenon of late return of employees and difficulty in recruitment, which affects the resumption of work of the product line. For the early supply of products, to a certain extent, it will have a certain impact. In particular, Hubei Province plays an important role in the supply chain of automobiles, communications and electronics, while Zhejiang and Guangdong include some leading enterprises in the field of electronic components manufacturing, electronic system assembly and printed circuit board components, and the supply chain relying on China’s production of electronics, telecommunications and semiconductors will also be affected. On February 17, apple said it would cut its revenue guidelines for the first quarter of 2020 because of lower short-term production capacity of iPhone due to the new crown epidemic.

Enterprises accelerate technological upgrading

In the face of the transformation of traditional industry, it is also accelerating the upgrading of traditional industry. It is expected that more manufacturing enterprises will start digital transformation and build intelligent manufacturing factories to improve the quality and efficiency of enterprise production. At the same time, with the rise of new technologies and new industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, 5g, blockchain, etc., the operation efficiency of enterprises and even the whole society will be greatly improved, and the pace of industrial technology reform in China will be faster.

real estate

Real estate sales fell sharply

The offline sales activities of real estate have been greatly impacted. During the epidemic period, many sales offices were closed, and sales dropped sharply. Especially in the third and fourth tier cities, the demand for home ownership during the Spring Festival is hindered, and the impact is more serious. The pressure of de stocking is increasing, which also has a certain impact on the annual sales. As a response, some real estate enterprises explore online sales mode, which may redefine the future real estate sales pattern. The government has also taken measures to stabilize the housing market. The 5-year LPR interest rate announced in February will be cut by 5 basis points, which will help to lower mortgage rates and stabilize the housing market.

Cash flow management is critical

Affected by such factors as suspension of construction for epidemic prevention and control and slow rework of construction workers, the pace of development and investment of real estate enterprises has also been forced to slow down. As an industry with high leverage ratio, rapid capital withdrawal is of great significance to real estate enterprises, and cash flow is very important. In some small and medium-sized real estate enterprises, the capital is tight and the operation risk is increased. According to the announcement network of the people’s Court on February 21, 81 real estate related enterprises in China have gone bankrupt since 2020. At the same time, some real estate enterprises with good operating conditions will also take the opportunity to acquire high-quality assets, which will intensify the merger within the industry and promote the integration of the real estate industry.

The demand for high-quality public resources in core cities is rising to support housing prices

Core cities and economically developed areas usually have higher medical level and medical resources, which increase the attraction of population inflow. Some local governments have also shown higher governance capacity in this epidemic prevention and control, which makes these cities more attractive. The demand for high-quality public resources in core cities and regions will play a supporting role in housing prices in these regions.

Commercial real estate demand changes

Due to the epidemic prevention and control of the delay in returning to work and avoid the gathering of personnel, many companies use remote office. The new office model promotes the transformation of business mode, the demand for more flexible shared office rental may rise, and the market structure of office buildings will be adjusted. At the same time, due to the sharp decline of offline retail and tourism, commercial real estate and tourism real estate (such as hotels and Characteristic Towns) have been greatly impacted in the short term. With the gradual recovery of consumption and tourism markets after the end of the epidemic, these markets are expected to improve.

energy

Oil demand falls and prices are under pressure

With the continuous expansion of the impact of the epidemic, international air passenger transport has been sharply reduced, high-speed traffic restrictions in some domestic areas, public transport stoppage in urban areas, and travel frequency and travel radius of private cars have shrunk significantly; transportation industry, logistics transportation, industrial and mining enterprises and other industries can not resume work in a short period of time, and the demand for diesel oil has greatly shrunk, resulting in the sharp decline of domestic oil product market consumption and the domestic oil price Tune. At the same time, as China’s total oil consumption accounts for about 14% of the world, the decline in China’s oil demand also has an impact on the world. On the 13th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2020 by 365000 B / D to 825000 B / D, the lowest level since 2011. The drop in demand has led to short-term pressure on international oil prices.

Low supply and demand in coal market

The coal supply side was greatly affected by the epidemic situation. At present, most of the coal mines can not resume production as planned due to prolonged resumption of work and limited population flow. Transportation (including international imports and domestic railways) was also affected by traffic stoppage, and the resource supply was relatively tight in the short term. Coal demand by steel, chemical industry and other industries to delay the impact of factors also declined.

Power grid companies face downward pressure on revenue

During the epidemic period, due to the control measures, most of the people chose to stay at home, which led to the increase of electricity consumption of residents, while the power consumption of industrial and commercial enterprises decreased due to factory shutdown or delayed resumption of work. Because the electricity price of industrial and commercial users in China is generally higher than that of residential electricity, the main income of power grid companies decreases. At the same time, the short-term economic slowdown will also affect the income level of power enterprises.

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