South Asia economic focus report 2020 From World Bank

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The following is the South Asia economic focus report 2020 From World Bankrecommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: global economy , research report.

With the increasing number of deaths caused by the new coronavirus pandemic and its negative impact on the global economy, governments in South Asia must step up their efforts to curb health emergencies and protect the people, especially the poorest and most vulnerable groups, so as to lay the foundation for economic recovery now, the world bank’s semiannual report on South Asia economy said.

The latest issue of “South Asia economic focus” points out that due to the suspension of economic activities, the decline of trade, and the increasing pressure on the financial and banking sectors, it is expected that there will be a sharp economic decline in all eight economies in the region.

Against this background of rapid change and uncertainty, the report puts forward an interval forecast, which predicts that the growth rate of the region will decline to 1.8% to 2.8% in 2020, which is significantly lower than the growth forecast of 6.3% six months ago. This will be the region’s worst performance in 40 years, with temporary contraction in all South Asian countries. The report warns that in the context of prolonged and widespread national closure, the entire region will experience negative growth this year under a pessimistic scenario.

The impact of this deterioration forecast will last until 2021, with growth expected to hover between 3.1% and 4.0% next year, down from the previous forecast of 6.7%.

“For governments in South Asia, the priority is to curb the spread of the virus and protect people, especially the poorest groups facing more serious health and economic consequences,” said Hartwig Schaeffer, vice president of the world bank for South Asia. The novel coronavirus pneumonia crisis is also an emergency mobilization order, which calls for innovative policies, and will soon start the South Asian economy once the crisis is over. If this is not done, long-term growth may be affected and hard won achievements in poverty reduction will be lost. “

The impact of the pandemic will hit low-income groups, especially informal workers in the hospitality, retail and transportation sectors, who have limited or no access to health care or social security. According to the report, the impact of the new outbreak is likely to exacerbate inequality in South Asia. In South Asia, the sudden and massive loss of low paid jobs has driven a large number of migrant workers to return from the cities to the countryside, leading to a surge in concerns about the return of many of them to poverty. Although there are no signs of widespread food shortages, the report warns that a protracted new outbreak crisis could threaten food security, especially for the most vulnerable groups.

In the short term, the report suggests that weak health care systems should be prepared to cope with the greater impact of the new epidemic, and that social safety nets should be provided for the most vulnerable groups to ensure their food, medical supplies and necessities. In order to minimize the short-term economic pain, the report calls for the formulation of temporary work plans for unemployed migrant workers, debt reduction measures for enterprises and individuals, and simplification of customs clearance procedures between regions to speed up the import and export of essential materials.

After the closure measures are relaxed, governments in South Asia should combine expansionary fiscal policy with monetary stimulus to maintain credit flow in the economy. Given the limited fiscal space in many South Asian countries, these policies should target those most affected by the economic freeze. The report urges the government to take temporary spending measures and coordinate with international financial partners to avoid unsustainable long-term debt levels and fiscal deficits.

Hans Timo, chief economist for South Asia of the world bank, said: “after addressing the direct threat of the new epidemic, countries in South Asia must maintain the sustainability of their sovereign debt through prudent fiscal policies and debt reduction measures, and overcome the current crisis and seize the huge opportunity to expand the use of digital technology for payment systems and distance education, so as to open up remote areas in South Asia.”

*As a result of the new coronavirus pandemic, the economic situation of countries and the region is changing every day. The analysis in this report is based on the latest country data as at 7 April 2020.

The World Bank Group has taken extensive and rapid actions to help developing countries strengthen pandemic response, strengthen epidemic surveillance, improve public health interventions, and help the private sector continue to operate and maintain employment. In the next 15 months, the World Bank Group will deploy $160 billion in financial support to help countries protect the poor and vulnerable groups, help enterprises and promote economic recovery.

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