National leasing market report in November 2021 From Shell Research Institute
The following is the National leasing market report in November 2021 From Shell Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Life data, research report.
Core conclusion
At this stage, the national rental market is in the off-season, superimposing the factors of the rebound of epidemic situation in some regions, and the rental market showed an accelerated cooling trend in November. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the leasing turnover of 40 key cities in China decreased by 18% month on month in November; From the perspective of urban energy level, the cooling of high-energy cities is relatively slow; From the urban level, the rental market in all cities has kept cooling, with Harbin, Zhengzhou, Dalian and Lanzhou having the largest month on month cooling rate, more than 30%. From the perspective of rent level, the rent level of 40 key cities in China in November was 39.4 yuan / m2, and the rent index decreased by 1.3% month on month, with a steady and slight increase year-on-year, still 4.0% lower than the same period in 2019; From the perspective of urban energy level, the first tier and new first tier cities showed a slight increase compared with the same period before the epidemic. The rent level of more than 60% of the key 40 cities fell month on month, 14 cities fell month on month for three consecutive months or more, 60% of the cities’ rent was lower than that in the same period before the epidemic, and the monthly average rent of 9 cities in November was the lowest in recent three years. In November, the transaction cycle of houses was extended, and the difficulty of house rental was slightly improved. It is expected that the heat of the rental market will remain low in December. In addition, when the epidemic does not rebound, the rental demand restrained by the epidemic in some regions in November will be released in December, and there may be a slight warming trend in the rental market in some small areas.
The cooling of the rental market accelerated and the rent maintained a downward trend
The cooling of the rental market accelerated, and the rent level decreased steadily, still lower than the level in the same period before the epidemic. Since mid and late October, some regions have shown a short-term rebound of the epidemic. In the off-season of the rental market, the rental market in some cities has accelerated cooling, but depending on effective epidemic prevention and control, the impact of this round of epidemic on the rental market is limited to a certain range. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, the trading volume of the rental market in 11 key 40 cities in China decreased by 17.9% month on month. This year, the rental market reached the peak of market heat in July and August. With the basic release of the rental demand of graduates, the rental market entered the off-season in September, maintained a cooling trend in October and November, and accelerated in November due to the short rebound of the epidemic. From the perspective of rent level, the rent level of 40 key cities in China is 39.4 yuan / m2, and the rent index decreased by 1.3% month on month, with a stable and slight increase year-on-year, and still decreased by 4.0% compared with the same period in 2019.
National key 40 cities: first tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; New first tier cities: Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Xi’an, Suzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Dongguan, Foshan, Ningbo, Qingdao and Shenyang; Other second tier cities: Hefei, Dalian, Yantai, Xiamen, Shijiazhuang, Wuxi, Nantong, Xuzhou, Fuzhou, Changchun, Jinan, Harbin, Nanchang, Taiyuan, Guiyang, Zhongshan, Lanzhou and Huizhou; Third tier cities: Langfang, Hohhot and Wuhu. The classification of urban energy level is based on the ranking list of urban commercial charm in 2021 released by the first finance and new first tier cities Research Institute in 2021
The cooling of high-energy cities is slow, and the rents of cities at all levels are differentiated
Cities at all levels have cooled month on month, the heat of the new first tier and other second tier cities has decreased three times month on month, and the first tier and new first tier cities have increased slightly compared with the same period before the epidemic. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in November, the leasing turnover of first tier, new first tier and other second tier cities decreased month on month, with a decrease of more than 10%, but the temperature of high-energy cities decreased slowly. The new first tier cities and other second tier cities continued to maintain a cooling trend in September, October and November. The first tier cities had a slight recovery in October, mainly due to the decline of market rent in the off-season, the strengthening of rental demand of rent sensitive tenants in Shanghai and Beijing, and the month on month increase of trading volume. In terms of rent level, the monthly rent level of the first tier cities on the shell platform was 75.4 yuan / m2 in November, with a month on month decrease of 1.2%, a slight increase year-on-year and a slight increase of 1.4% over the same period in 2019; The monthly rent level of the new first tier cities is 30.5 yuan / m2, and the rent level is basically the same month on month, with a slight increase year-on-year, a slight increase of 2.6% over the same period in 2019; The monthly rent level of other second tier cities is 24.6 yuan / m2, slightly up year-on-year, still lower than the level in the same period in 2019. Last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the rent level operated at a low temperature. This year, relying on effective epidemic prevention and control measures, the rent of cities at all levels increased slightly year-on-year, and the rent of other second tier cities is still lower than the level before the epidemic.
The market of key cities has cooled down, and the rent of more than 30% of cities has decreased month on month
Different from the previous two years, the rental market in all cities showed a cooling trend in November. Harbin, Zhengzhou, Dalian and Lanzhou had the largest month on month cooling rate, more than 30%. The leasing markets in 40 key cities in China are in the traditional off-season. From mid to late October, the epidemic situation in a small area rebounded briefly, accelerating the cooling of the leasing market in this region. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, in November this year, the activity of the rental market in all 40 key cities in China decreased month on month, and the rental market cooled significantly. The month on month cooling rate in Harbin, Zhengzhou, Dalian and Lanzhou exceeded 30%, of which Lanzhou had the largest cooling rate. In the same period of 2019 and 2020, the rental market in some cities will show a recovery or a small cooling rate.
In November, the rent level of more than 60% of cities fell month on month, 14 cities fell month on month for three consecutive months or more, 60% of cities’ rent was lower than that in the same period before the epidemic, and the monthly average rent of 9 cities in November was the lowest in the same period in recent three years. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, in November, the rent level of 15 cities in Dongguan, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Xiamen, Wuhan and Shenyang, among the 40 key cities in China, increased slightly or basically unchanged month on month. Since July this year, rents in various cities have been falling from high levels. Rents in Qingdao and Xuzhou have fallen for five consecutive months since July. Rents in Beijing, Dalian, Harbin, Huizhou, Lanzhou, Nanjing, Shijiazhuang and Xi’an have fallen for four consecutive months since August. Rents in Chengdu, Shanghai, Tianjin and Wuxi have fallen for three consecutive months since September. Rents in Guangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo Shenzhen, Changsha and Chongqing fell month on month for two consecutive months since October. From a year-on-year perspective, relying on effective epidemic prevention and control, the rent of more than 60% of cities increased slightly year-on-year. Compared with the same period in 2019, in November this year, the rent levels of 16 cities such as first tier cities Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, second tier cities Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xi’an, Changsha, Hefei, Huizhou, Jinan, Nantong, Xiamen, Wuxi and Xuzhou, and third tier cities Wuhu increased steadily, slightly or basically unchanged, and the other 24 cities were lower than those in the same period before the epidemic. Among them, the rent of 9 cities including Shenzhen, Chengdu, Foshan, Ningbo, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, Shijiazhuang and Taiyuan in November this year was the lowest in the same period in recent three years.
The transaction cycle of houses continued to rise, and the difficulty of house rental increased
The transaction cycle of housing sources increased, and the transaction cycle of passenger sources was basically the same, both of which were higher than the level in the same period before the epidemic. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the transaction cycle of houses in 40 key cities in China in November was 49.2 days, which was extended by 3.7 days month on month, shortened by 3.4 days year-on-year, and extended by 7.1 days compared with the same period in 2019; The transaction cycle of tourist sources is 10.3 days, which is basically the same month on month and year-on-year, 2.3 days longer than the same period in 2019. As the rental market continues to get cold, the transaction cycle of houses remains extended in November, making it more difficult to rent houses. The transaction cycle of customer sources remained at a high level, with little change from August to November, with a change range of less than 0.5 days. After the epidemic, the decision-making time of tenants in renting houses was extended to reduce the risk in the leasing process.
In December, the market kept cooling, and some areas may recover
It is expected that the heat of the rental market will remain low in December. When the epidemic does not rebound, the rental demand in some areas restrained by the epidemic will be released in November, and some areas may show a warming trend. Since the middle and late October of this year, the epidemic situation has rebounded in some regions. In November, the rental market in 40 key cities across the country accelerated to cool down, and cities at all levels maintained a cooling trend. As the rental market is still in the off-season, the rental demand is weak before spring, and the rental market will still maintain a low temperature trend in December. In addition, in the absence of a rebound in the epidemic, it is expected that the rental demand restrained by the epidemic in some regions in November will be released in December, and there may be a slight warming trend in the rental market in some small areas.
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