Examining the direction of investment from the perspective of structural change From Population wave

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The results of the seventh census released recently are better than the previous market worries. There are significant regional differences in birth rate, aging, population distribution and mobility. There is no doubt that the demographic dividend factor is declining; However, with the continuous improvement of education level and industrial upgrading, the talent dividend will continue to release. The report deeply analyzes the impact of China’s population structure on the future investment direction from the perspective of macro and industry.

On the supply side: the decrease of labor age population leads to the increase of labor cost, which accelerates the reallocation of human resources: 1) some labor-intensive industries transfer to countries and regions with lower cost; 2) Take out, express delivery, online car hailing, catering and other service industries may face higher costs in the future. This change will force enterprises to accelerate the transformation of intelligence and automation, and drive the further upgrading of China’s industrial chain. In the future, industrial robots and industrial Internet of things will be the general trend. Labor cost is not the only advantage of China’s manufacturing industry. The complete upstream and downstream industrial chain, stable business environment, sound infrastructure, the improvement of education level and the advantage of super large domestic market mean that the demographic dividend is fading, but the talent dividend will continue to release. We believe that the change of population structure is expected to promote the introduction of policies that keep pace with the times: for example, gradually delaying the statutory retirement age; We will continue to improve the level of education and strengthen the supervision of the education industry.

Demand side: 1) the acceleration of aging promotes the prosperity of the elderly industry. When the Post-70s or even the post-80s enter the retirement age, the way of elderly consumption will change greatly. Because the consumption ability, consumption concept and education level of these groups are obviously different from the previous age groups. We believe that the demand for leisure tourism, health catering, fitness, medicine, voice and video, driverless, smart home, life insurance, nursing homes and other products and services will be more vigorous. At the same time, in terms of policy, it is expected to introduce more changes to meet the needs of community health care, private health care and general hospitals. 2) The declining birth rate and the trend of “fewer children” bring challenges to the medium and long-term prospects of maternal and child products and some education industries. 3) There will be a structural decline in the demand for housing and a significant imbalance in regional distribution. We can see that in the past 10 years, the net inflow of population mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and other major cities. The northeast, northwest and other regions are facing continuous net outflow of population, which will inevitably lead to the polarization of housing demand and price. 4) The demand of automobile industry is facing the pressure of structural demographic dividend fading. The size of the first-time car buying population (25-30 years old) has declined year by year since peaking in 2016, weakening the medium and long-term growth expectations of the industry. However, the new demand driven by the technological change of the industry brought about by electrification and intellectualization will partly offset the negative impact of the fading demographic dividend.

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