The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in June 2022 was 49.5% From China Automobile Circulation Association

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On June 30, 2022, the latest “vehicle inventory alert index survey of Chinese auto dealers” via (vehicle inventory alert index) released by the China Automobile Circulation Association showed that the inventory alert index of Chinese auto dealers in June 2022 was 49.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6 percentage points, a month on month decrease of 7.3 percentage points, and the inventory alert index was below the boom and bust line. Thanks to the national and local governments’ successive introduction of a series of policies to promote automobile consumption, including financial subsidies, reduction of purchase tax and relaxation of automobile purchase restrictions, the automobile circulation industry has entered a boom period.

In June, the epidemic was gradually controlled, and supporting consumption promotion policies such as national tax cuts, local government subsidies, manufacturer subsidies and dealer promotions came into effect, which initially played a strong pulling role on the demand side and accelerated the recovery of the automotive market. Under the dual role of policy and promotion, it is expected that the terminal sales of full caliber narrow passenger vehicles in June will be about 1.75 million, and the sales of passenger vehicles will change from negative to positive year-on-year, with an increase of about 5%.

With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the sales pace of dealers has improved significantly. In June, at the half year task assessment node, dealers carried out task impulse and had strong momentum to replenish inventory. Due to the large operating and sales losses of dealers from April to may, less than 10% of dealers completed the semi annual task as planned, and only 40% of dealers with a completion rate of more than 70%. Dealers are facing problems such as reduced single vehicle profits, declining performance, and slow capital turnover. With the support of policies, the sales volume of dealers began to rise, and it is expected that the business situation will gradually improve in the future.

We conducted a questionnaire survey on the specific performance of the purchase tax reduction policy in the end market. The survey sample covers 21 provinces and 88 cities, including 16 dealer groups and 36 auto brands.

Dealers generally believe that the 60billion vehicle purchase tax reduction policy has boosted consumer confidence, increased the number of first-time and replacement consumers, and effectively reduced the purchase pressure of consumer groups. The effect of the purchase tax policy has initially appeared. At present, 33.8% of dealers have increased the discount range for new cars, 32.4% of dealers’ passenger flow has increased year-on-year, and 58.4% of dealers’ new car sales in June have increased month on month compared with May.

From the sub index, the inventory, market demand, average daily sales volume and operating status index increased in June, while the employee index decreased month on month. The intensive consumption promotion policies have improved consumer confidence in the short term, and the passenger flow and transaction situation of dealers have improved significantly, and the business condition is better than that of last month.

From the regional index, the national total index in June was 49.5%, the northern index was 50.8%, the eastern index was 43.7%, the Western index was 56.6%, and the southern index was 57.6%. With the help of the policy, the car markets in the north and East districts recovered rapidly, and the inventory early warning index of the two districts entered or approached the boom range; Large areas of the South ushered in continuous heavy rainfall, floods broke out in Guangdong, Jiangxi and other places, and the inventory early warning index in the South rose.

From the sub brand type index, the import luxury brand, mainstream joint venture brand and independent brand index fell month on month in June. The policy of halving purchase tax benefited most joint ventures and a small number of luxury brand cars, with overall sales improving and inventory warning index declining.

Market judgment for next month: in July, auto shows in some regions were launched one after another, and new cars were intensively listed. The superposition of stimulus policies will continue to promote the recovery of sales. Under the guidance of the policy, the market increment effect in June is relatively prominent, and the market performance in July is expected to be basically the same as that in June.

The China Automobile Circulation Association suggests that the uncertainty of the automobile market will increase in the future. Dealers should rationally estimate the actual market demand according to the actual situation, reasonably control the inventory level, and do not relax the epidemic prevention.

Attachment: investigation description of inventory early warning index of auto dealers and regional division standards. Read more: China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of auto dealers in November 2020 was 60.5%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of auto dealers in May 2022 was 56.8%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of auto dealers in June 2020 was 56.8%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of auto dealers in October 2021 The index is 52.5% China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in April 2022 is 66.4% China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in April 2020 is 56.8% China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in December 2019 is 59.0% China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in August 2020 is 52.8% China Automobile Circulation Association: February 2021 The inventory early warning index of car dealers is 52.2%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of car dealers in August 2021 is 51.7%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of car dealers in May 2021 is 52.9%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of car dealers in June 2021 is 56.1%. China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of car dealers in October 2020 is 54.1% General association: the inventory early warning index of Chinese auto dealers in May 2021 was 52.9%, and China Automobile Circulation Association: the inventory early warning index of Chinese auto dealers in December 2021 was 56.1%

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