From January to April 2022, the national investment in real estate development was 3.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.70% From 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute

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The following is the From January to April 2022, the national investment in real estate development was 3.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.70% From 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy.

From January to April 2022, the national investment in real estate development was 3.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 2.70%, the first negative value since June 2020; The national land purchase area was only 17.66 million square meters, a sharp drop of 46.5% year-on-year, and the decline reached a new high; The newly started housing area was 397.39 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.28%, and the decline continued to expand, an increase of 9 percentage points over the previous month; The completed area was 200.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 11.9%, which was larger than that of the previous month; The sales amount of commercial housing decreased by 30% year-on-year, both of which continued to expand compared with last month. In April, the central and local policies were intensively released, and the favorable policies continued to be actively rolled out around the protection of just needed and improved housing demand, and the relief of real estate enterprises. The efforts became larger and larger, covering more and more cities. Under the fermentation of follow-up policies, the market expectation will change. After the epidemic, the national investment and development data is expected to recover, driven by the first and second tier cities.

1、 The growth rate of development investment from January to April showed a rare negative value

Among them, the investment in housing development was 2.95 trillion yuan, accounting for 75%, which was the same as that in the same period last year, but the year-on-year growth rate was negative, which was – 2.1%.

Since last year, the growth rate of investment in real estate development and residential development has continued to decline. In addition, the two data from January to April this year showed a relatively rare negative growth rate, indicating that the current prosperity of the real estate market is worrying. This worrying data comes from many factors. First, the impact of the epidemic continued in April. Second, the market situation in some regions, especially in Northeast China, has not been opened. The data show that from January to April, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment in Northeast China was only – 30.5%.

There are great differences among different regions. The reason why the real estate data in Northeast China has declined seriously is that it has a great relationship with economic development, population and housing stock, and its ability to resist the poor economic market environment is poor. Therefore, it is more necessary to vigorously support favorable policies. Since last year, Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces in Northeast China have issued a few policies in the form of provincial documents, including relaxing the supervision ratio of pre-sale funds of real estate enterprises Consumer loans for three children and subsidies for house purchase are likely to be given greater policy support and preference in the future after the central government has made frequent statements recently.

2、 Land supply contracted, and the national land purchase area fell to a new high

From January to April 2022, the national land purchase area was only 17.66 million square meters, with a sharp year-on-year decline of 46.5%. Since this year, the year-on-year decline has continued to be more than 40%, and the decline has reached a new high.

This is mainly due to the fact that the peak of the first round of centralized land supply in April has passed, and the overall supply has shrunk. The rules are optimized to reduce the auction rate. In this year’s land auction, all localities actively adjusted their land supply strategies to cope with market changes, such as reducing the threshold of deposit, canceling the sales price limit of some plots, allowing enterprises to pay land payments by stages, and starting work immediately after taking the land, so as to improve the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises. However, subject to the fact that the financial pressure of most real estate enterprises has not been substantially relieved, the local auction fever in most cities will remain low. Land acquisition enterprises are still dominated by central and state-owned enterprises, and real estate enterprises are still cautious in land acquisition. It is expected that the land market will maintain this pattern in the short term.

3、 The year-on-year growth rate of construction, new construction and completed area continued to decline

From January to April 2022, the newly started housing area nationwide was 397.39 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.28%, and the decline continued to expand, an increase of 9 percentage points over the previous month; The completed area was 200.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 11.9%, which was larger than that of last month. The national housing construction area was 8185.88 million square meters, basically unchanged year-on-year.

From the perspective of newly started and completed areas, there has been a significant year-on-year decline, and the range is also further expanding. This year is the peak period for real estate enterprises to repay their debts. The pressure on enterprises’ funds is large, and the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to start construction is obviously insufficient. With the repeated impact of the epidemic in various regions, it is expected that the pressure on real estate enterprises’ funds will still be difficult to ease in the short term, which will continue to drag down the growth of new construction area.

4、 The decline in residential sales continues to expand, and the next tier and second tier cities are expected to take the lead in recovery due to policy fermentation

From January to April 2022, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 397.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.95%, of which the residential sales area accounted for 85% to 337.22 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 25.40%, showing negative growth for three consecutive months. From January to April, the sales amount of commercial housing was 3778.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.51%, and the sales amount of residential housing was 3324.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.16%, both of which continued to expand compared with last month.

In April, from the national to the local level, the government continued to actively spread out favorable policies around the protection of just needed and improved housing demand and the relief of real estate enterprises, and the strength is increasing, covering more and more cities. Under the fermentation of follow-up policies, the market expectation will change. After the epidemic, some first and second tier cities are expected to take the lead in recovery.

5、 The favorable policies were not transmitted to the corporate capital side, and the year-on-year decline in the funds in place of real estate enterprises was further expanded

From January to April 2022, the national real estate enterprises paid in 4.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.64%, which continued to expand compared with last month. From the perspective of capital sources, domestic loans decreased by 24.39% year-on-year, deposits and advance receipts decreased by 37% year-on-year, and personal mortgage loans decreased by 25% year-on-year, all of which continued to expand compared with last month, while the use of foreign capital alone increased by 129% year-on-year.

Since this year, the government has released positive policies on the financing environment of real estate enterprises for many times, but from the current data, the favorable policies have not been transmitted to the enterprise capital. In addition, the improvement of capital also needs the support of sales performance. In April, the national sales data was still not optimistic. The year-on-year decline in the growth rate of down payment and mortgage loans continued to expand, which was also a direct factor causing the further decline in the funds available to real estate enterprises.

More reading: 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: in March 2022, the listing volume of second-hand houses in Changchun decreased by 35% month on month and 58% year on year. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: Interpretation of real estate development in the first quarter of 2022. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: national new housing market report in January 2022. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: national second-hand housing market report in April 2022. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: the listing price of second-hand houses in first tier cities continued to rise in April 2022. 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: National leasing market monthly report in March 2022 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: the real estate market during the Spring Festival in 2022 is significantly weaker than that in the same period last year 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: summary of the real estate market in 2020 (with download) 58 anjuke real Estate Research Institute: the real estate market in 70 cities showed signs of recovery in January 2022, and the new house prices in first tier cities stabilized and rebounded 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: real estate market report for the third quarter of 2019 (with download) 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: review of property market policies in 2021 and outlook for 2022 (download attached) 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: in November, 2021, the average listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing, Guangzhou and most second tier cities decreased month on month. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: in November, 2021, the depth report of the national second-hand housing market. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: in October, 2021, the supply building area of 65 cities nationwide was 158.36 million square meters, down 15% month on month. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: summary of the real estate market in the first half of 2020 (download attached)

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