Interpretation of real estate development in the first quarter of 2022 From 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute
The following is the Interpretation of real estate development in the first quarter of 2022 From 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy.
Overview: from January to March 2022, the national investment in real estate development was 2.78 trillion yuan, which has almost reached the same level year-on-year, and the growth rate hit a new low in nearly 20 months; The national land purchase area was only 13.39 million square meters, down 41.82% year-on-year, with a year-on-year decline of more than 40% this year; The newly started area of housing in China decreased by 17.49% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand. The completed area decreased by nearly 11.47% year-on-year, which expanded again after the first decline last month; The year-on-year growth of commercial housing sales and residential sales continued to expand, both at more than 20%; The growth rate of funds in place by real estate enterprises also continued to decline. Although the “two sessions”, the statement of the five ministries and commissions on March 16 and the follow-up executive meeting of the State Council have released positive signals for many times, the performance of development investment data in the first quarter was poor due to the incomplete release of the policy effect and the repeated epidemic in many places. It is expected that in the second quarter, local real estate policies will be further relaxed. However, due to the continuation of the epidemic in April, the investment market of all walks of life is seriously dragged down. It is expected that the growth rate of national development investment in April is still difficult to rebound, or even negative growth.
1、 The growth rate of development investment in the first quarter was almost flat year-on-year, and it is expected that the growth rate will still be difficult to recover in April
From January to March 2022, the national investment in real estate development was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.69%, which showed a sharp decline compared with the growth rate of 25.56% in the same period last year.
Among them, the investment in residential development accounted for 75%, which was the same as that in the same period last year. From January to March 2022, the investment in residential development was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.67%. It continued to decline on the basis of the sharp decline in the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020.
Since last year, the growth rate of real estate development investment and residential development investment has continued to decline. In March this year, it has almost reached the same level year-on-year, with the growth rate reaching a new low in nearly 20 months, indicating that the investment intention of real estate enterprises in the first quarter is still cold. Although the “two sessions”, the statements of five ministries and commissions on March 16 and the follow-up executive meeting of the State Council have released positive signals for many times, the performance of development investment data in March is poor due to the fact that the policy effect has not been fully released and the repeated epidemic in many places. It is expected that in the second quarter, local real estate policies will be further relaxed. However, due to the continuation of the epidemic in April, the investment market of all walks of life is seriously dragged down. It is expected that the growth rate of national development investment in April is still difficult to rebound, or even negative growth.
2、 The attitude of real estate enterprises in obtaining land is still cautious, and the national land purchase area has decreased by more than 40%
From January to March 2022, the national land purchase area was only 13.39 million square meters, a sharp year-on-year decline of 41.82%, and the year-on-year decline has continued to be more than 40% this year.
This is mainly because, compared with the 22 pilot cities last year, more cities have taken the initiative to adopt the mode of centralized land supply this year. In the first quarter of this year, seven cities, including Beijing, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Hefei, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan, where the first round of land auction has been conducted, the heat of land auction market in different cities is obviously differentiated, the heat in Beijing, Xiamen and Chongqing has rebounded slightly, and Fuzhou and Qingdao are relatively cold. Overall, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are still the main force of land acquisition, and the attitude of real estate enterprises is still cautious.
3、 The year-on-year growth rate of construction, new construction and completed area continued to decline
From January to March 2022, the new construction area of houses in China was 298.38 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.49%, and the decline continued to expand. The completed area was 169.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 11.47%, which expanded again after the first decline last month. The national housing construction area was 8062.59 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 1%.
This year is the peak period of debt repayment of real estate enterprises. The capital pressure of enterprises is large, and the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to start construction is obviously insufficient. Superimposed on the repeated impact of the epidemic in various places, it is expected that the large capital pressure of real estate enterprises will still be difficult to alleviate in the short term, which will continue to drag down the growth of new construction area.
4、 Residential sales fell by more than 20% year-on-year, continuing to expand compared with last month
From January to March 2022, the national commercial housing sales area was 310.56 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.78%, of which the residential sales area accounted for 85% to 263.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.64%, with negative growth for two consecutive months. From January to March, the sales amount of commercial houses was 2965.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.73%, and the sales amount of residential houses was 2607.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.62%, both of which continued to expand compared with last month.
Sales data fell sharply year-on-year, and the range continued to expand. The main reason is that the same period last year has not yet entered the stage of comprehensive regulation and control, and the national property market is overheated. With the intensive introduction of policies to stabilize the property market this year, the wait-and-see mood of home buyers will be dispelled, but the sharp rise in the market will no longer exist.
5、 The sales data is not optimistic, which directly leads to the year-on-year decline of funds in place of real estate enterprises
From January to March 2022, the national real estate enterprises paid in 3.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.61%, which continued to expand compared with last month. From the perspective of capital sources, the year-on-year decline of deposits and advance receipts was the largest, with a year-on-year decline of 31%. The year-on-year decline of personal mortgage loans also continued to expand compared with last month, with a year-on-year decline of 18.8%.
Since this year, the government has released positive policies on the financing environment of real estate enterprises for many times, but from the current data, the capital situation of real estate enterprises has not been improved, which is worthy of reflection by local financial departments. In addition, the improvement of capital also needs the support of sales performance. In March, the national sales data was still not optimistic, and the year-on-year growth rate of down payment and mortgage loans continued to expand, which was also a direct factor causing the further decline of funds in place of real estate enterprises in the first quarter.
More reading: 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: national new housing market report in January 2022 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: the real estate market during the Spring Festival in 2022 was significantly weaker than that in the same period last year 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: national monthly rental market report in March 2022 58 anjuke real Estate Research Institute: there were signs of recovery in the real estate market in 70 cities in January 2022, and the new housing prices in first tier cities stabilized and rebounded 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: summary of the real estate market in 2020 (with download) 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: National anjuke index report in October 2019 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: the average listing price of second-hand houses in Beijing, Guangzhou and most second tier cities decreased month on month in November 2021 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: review of real estate market policies in 2021 and outlook for 2022 (download attached) 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: summary of real estate market in the first half of 2020 (download attached) 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: National anjuke index report in March 2022 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: real estate market report in the third quarter of 2019 (download attached) 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: in-depth report on the national second-hand housing market in November 2021 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: in October 2021, the supply construction area of 65 cities across the country was 158.36 million square meters, down 15% month on month. 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: market chapter of the national rental market report in February 2022 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute: ideal housing index in Dawan District, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao in the first quarter of 2022
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