Operation of China’s purchasing manager index in October 2021 From National Bureau of Statistics
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1、 Operation of purchasing manager index in China’s manufacturing industry
In October, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be below the critical point, and the outlook of the manufacturing industry has weakened.
In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, but still higher than the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 47.5%, unchanged from the previous month and below the critical point.
In terms of sub indexes, among the five sub indexes constituting manufacturing PMI, production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are all below the critical point.
The production index was 48.4%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities.
The new order index was 48.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the market demand of the manufacturing industry has dropped.
The raw material inventory index was 47.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of main raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.
The employment index was 48.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises has decreased.
The supplier delivery time index was 46.7%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry continued to extend.
Table 1 PMI and composition index of China’s manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
Unit:%
PMI
production
New order
Raw material inventory
Employees
Supplier delivery time
October 2020
fifty-one point four
fifty-three point nine
fifty-two point eight
forty-eight
forty-nine point three
fifty point six
November 2020
fifty-two point one
fifty-four point seven
fifty-three point nine
forty-eight point six
forty-nine point five
fifty point one
December 2020
fifty-one point nine
fifty-four point two
fifty-three point six
forty-eight point six
forty-nine point six
forty-nine point nine
January 2021
fifty-one point three
fifty-three point five
fifty-two point three
forty-nine
forty-eight point four
forty-eight point eight
February 2021
fifty point six
fifty-one point nine
fifty-one point five
forty-seven point seven
forty-eight point one
forty-seven point nine
March 2021
fifty-one point nine
fifty-three point nine
fifty-three point six
forty-eight point four
fifty point one
fifty
April 2021
fifty-one point one
fifty-two point two
fifty-two
forty-eight point three
forty-nine point six
forty-eight point seven
May 2021
fifty-one
fifty-two point seven
fifty-one point three
forty-seven point seven
forty-eight point nine
forty-seven point six
June 2021
fifty point nine
fifty-one point nine
fifty-one point five
forty-eight
forty-nine point two
forty-seven point nine
July 2021
fifty point four
fifty-one
fifty point nine
forty-seven point seven
forty-nine point six
forty-eight point nine
August 2021
fifty point one
fifty point nine
forty-nine point six
forty-seven point seven
forty-nine point six
forty-eight
September 2021
forty-nine point six
forty-nine point five
forty-nine point three
forty-eight point two
forty-nine
forty-eight point one
October 2021
forty-nine point two
forty-eight point four
forty-eight point eight
forty-seven
forty-eight point eight
forty-six point seven
Table 2 other relevant indicators of China’s manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)
Unit:%
New export order
Import
Purchase quantity
Main raw materials
Purchase price
Ex factory price
Finished products
stock
Order in hand
Production and operation
Activity expectation
October 2020
fifty-one
fifty point eight
fifty-three point one
fifty-eight point eight
fifty-three point two
forty-four point nine
forty-seven point two
fifty-nine point three
November 2020
fifty-one point five
fifty point nine
fifty-three point seven
sixty-two point six
fifty-six point five
forty-five point seven
forty-six point seven
sixty point one
December 2020
fifty-one point three
fifty point four
fifty-three point two
sixty-eight
fifty-eight point nine
forty-six point two
forty-seven point one
fifty-nine point eight
January 2021
fifty point two
forty-nine point eight
fifty-two
sixty-seven point one
fifty-seven point two
forty-nine
forty-seven point three
fifty-seven point nine
February 2021
forty-eight point eight
forty-nine point six
fifty-one point six
sixty-six point seven
fifty-eight point five
forty-eight
forty-six point one
fifty-nine point two
March 2021
fifty-one point two
fifty-one point one
fifty-three point one
sixty-nine point four
fifty-nine point eight
forty-six point seven
forty-six point six
fifty-eight point five
April 2021
fifty point four
fifty point six
fifty-one point seven
sixty-six point nine
fifty-seven point three
forty-six point eight
forty-six point four
fifty-eight point three
May 2021
forty-eight point three
fifty point nine
fifty-one point nine
seventy-two point eight
sixty point six
forty-six point five
forty-five point nine
fifty-eight point two
June 2021
forty-eight point one
forty-nine point seven
fifty-one point seven
sixty-one point two
fifty-one point four
forty-seven point one
forty-six point six
fifty-seven point nine
July 2021
forty-seven point seven
forty-nine point four
fifty point eight
sixty-two point nine
fifty-three point eight
forty-seven point six
forty-six point one
fifty-seven point eight
August 2021
forty-six point seven
forty-eight point three
fifty point three
sixty-one point three
fifty-three point four
forty-seven point seven
forty-five point nine
fifty-seven point five
September 2021
forty-six point two
forty-six point eight
forty-nine point seven
sixty-three point five
fifty-six point four
forty-seven point two
forty-five point six
fifty-six point four
October 2021
forty-six point six
forty-seven point five
forty-eight point nine
seventy-two point one
sixty-one point one
forty-six point three
forty-five
fifty-three point six
2、 Operation of China’s non Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index
In October, the non manufacturing business activity index was 52.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still higher than the critical point, and the non manufacturing industry continued to expand.
By industry, the business activity index of the construction industry was 56.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of the service industry was 51.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industry conditions, the business activity indexes of accommodation, catering, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries are in the high boom range of more than 55.0%; The business activity index of capital market services, insurance, real estate, residential services and other industries is below the critical point.
The new order index was 49.0%, which was flat with the previous month, but still below the critical point, indicating that the demand in the non manufacturing market continued to slow down. By industry, the new order index of the construction industry was 52.3%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points over the previous month; The index of new orders in the service industry was 48.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The input price index was 57.8%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall price level of inputs used by non manufacturing enterprises for business activities increased significantly. By industry, the price index of construction inputs was 70.7%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points over the previous month; The price index of service inputs was 55.5%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 52.7%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall level of sales prices in non manufacturing industries continued to rise. By industry, the sales price index of the construction industry was 57.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous month; The sales price index of the service industry was 52.0%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous month.
The employment index was 47.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of non manufacturing enterprises has weakened. By industry, the employment index of the construction industry was 52.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The index of service industry employees was 46.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The expected index of business activities was 58.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still in a high boom range, indicating that non manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the recent market development. By industry, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 60.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month; The expected index of business activities in the service industry was 58.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Table 3 major sub indices of China’s non manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
Unit:%
Business activities
New order
Input price
selling price
Employees
Business activity expectations
October 2020
fifty-six point two
fifty-three
fifty point nine
forty-nine point four
forty-nine point four
sixty-two point nine
November 2020
fifty-six point four
fifty-two point eight
fifty-two point seven
fifty-one
forty-eight point nine
sixty-one point two
December 2020
fifty-five point seven
fifty-one point nine
fifty-four point three
fifty-two point three
forty-eight point seven
sixty point six
January 2021
fifty-two point four
forty-eight point seven
fifty-four point five
fifty-one point four
forty-seven point eight
fifty-five point one
February 2021
fifty-one point four
forty-eight point nine
fifty-four point seven
fifty point one
forty-eight point four
sixty-four
March 2021
fifty-six point three
fifty-five point nine
fifty-six point two
fifty-two point two
forty-nine point seven
sixty-three point seven
April 2021
fifty-four point nine
fifty-one point five
fifty-four point nine
fifty-one point two
forty-eight point seven
sixty-three
May 2021
fifty-five point two
fifty-two point two
fifty-seven point seven
fifty-two point eight
forty-eight point nine
sixty-two point nine
June 2021
fifty-three point five
forty-nine point six
fifty-three point four
fifty-one point four
forty-eight
sixty point eight
July 2021
fifty-three point three
forty-nine point seven
fifty-three point five
fifty-one point three
forty-eight point two
sixty point seven
August 2021
forty-seven point five
forty-two point two
fifty-one point three
forty-nine point three
forty-seven
fifty-seven point four
September 2021
fifty-three point two
forty-nine
fifty-three point five
fifty point five
forty-seven point eight
fifty-nine point one
October 2021
fifty-two point four
forty-nine
fifty-seven point eight
fifty-two point seven
forty-seven point five
fifty-eight point eight
Table 4 other sub indices of China’s non manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
Unit:%
New export order
Order in hand
stock
Supplier delivery time
October 2020
forty-seven
forty-four point nine
forty-eight point seven
fifty-two point three
November 2020
forty-nine
forty-five point two
forty-eight point eight
fifty-one point eight
December 2020
forty-seven point five
forty-four point seven
forty-seven
fifty-one point two
January 2021
forty-eight
forty-four
forty-seven point four
forty-nine point eight
February 2021
forty-five point seven
forty-four
forty-five point nine
forty-nine point eight
March 2021
fifty point three
forty-five point nine
forty-eight point two
fifty-one point eight
April 2021
forty-eight point one
forty-five point eight
forty-seven point two
fifty point nine
May 2021
forty-seven point six
forty-four point seven
forty-seven point two
fifty point eight
June 2021
forty-five point four
forty-three point eight
forty-seven
fifty-one
July 2021
forty-seven point seven
forty-four point eight
forty-seven point three
fifty-one point three
August 2021
forty-three point nine
forty-two point nine
forty-five point nine
forty-nine point two
September 2021
forty-six point four
forty-four point two
forty-five point nine
fifty point four
October 2021
forty-seven point five
forty-four point three
forty-five point five
forty-nine point seven
3、 Operation of China’s comprehensive PMI output index
In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion pace of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has slowed down.
note appended
1. Interpretation of main indicators
Purchasing manager index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical summary and compilation of the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all links of enterprise procurement, production and circulation, including manufacturing and non manufacturing fields. It is one of the leading indexes commonly used in the world to monitor the macro-economic trend, and has a strong role of prediction and early warning. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index in the PMI index system that reflects the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non manufacturing) in the current period. When the PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall expansion of the economy over the previous month; Less than 50% reflects the overall contraction of the economy over the previous month.
2. Scope of investigation
Involving 31 industry categories and 3000 survey samples of manufacturing industry in the industrial classification of national economy (GB / t4754-2017); There are 4200 survey samples in 43 industry categories of non manufacturing industry.
3. Investigation methods
The purchasing manager survey adopts the PPS (probability proportional to size) sampling method, takes the manufacturing or non manufacturing industries as the layer, the industry sample size is distributed according to the proportion of its added value in the added value of all manufacturing or non manufacturing industries, and the samples in the layer are extracted with the probability proportional to the main business income of the enterprise.
The survey was organized and implemented by the survey team directly under the National Bureau of statistics, and the National Statistics online direct reporting system was used to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey on enterprise procurement managers.
4. Calculation method
(1) Calculation method of sub index. The manufacturing purchasing manager survey index system includes 13 sub indexes, including production, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, finished product inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price of main raw materials, ex factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier distribution time, production and operation activity expectation. The survey index system of non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers includes 10 sub indexes, such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, inventory, input price, sales price, employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectation and so on. The sub index adopts the diffusion index calculation method, that is, the percentage of enterprises with positive answers plus half of the percentage with unchanged answers. Since there is no composite index for non manufacturing industries, the international business activity index is usually used to reflect the overall changes in the economic development of non manufacturing industries.
(2) Calculation method of manufacturing PMI index. Manufacturing PMI is weighted by five diffusion indexes (sub indexes). The five sub indexes and their weights are determined according to their prior impact on the economy. Specifically include: new order index, with a weight of 30%; Production index, with a weight of 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index, with a weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index, with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, which is calculated inversely when synthesizing the manufacturing PMI index.
(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is the weighted sum of manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, and the weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non manufacturing in GDP respectively.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, and the data fluctuates greatly due to seasonal factors. The indexes now released are seasonally adjusted data. More reading: National Bureau of Statistics: operation of China’s purchasing manager index in January 2019 National Bureau of Statistics: China’s non manufacturing business activity index in December 2014 was 54.1%. National Bureau of Statistics: statistical bulletin of national science and technology investment in 2020 National Bureau of Statistics: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in July 2021 was 3492.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. National Bureau of Statistics: the scale in June 2021 was The added value of upper industry increased by 8.3%, with an average growth of 6.5% in two years. National Bureau of Statistics: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in June 2021 was 3758.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. National Bureau of Statistics: the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in the first ten days of June 2021. National Bureau of Statistics: the total retail sales of social consumer goods in May 2021 was 3594.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. National Bureau of Statistics: January 2021 The utilization rate of national industrial capacity in the quarter was 77.2%. National Bureau of Statistics: in March 2021, the consumer price increased by 0.4% year-on-year and decreased by 0.5% month on month. National Bureau of Statistics: in March 2021, the consumer price increased by 0.4% year-on-year and decreased by 0.5% month on month. National Bureau of Statistics: the disposable income data of residents in 31 provinces in China in 2020. Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang ranked among the top three. National Bureau of Statistics: real estate in China from January to December 2020 National Bureau of Statistics: the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% in December 2020. National Bureau of Statistics: household income and consumption expenditure in 2020
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