The real estate pattern of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta will be differentiated and developed under the new cycle From Study on real estate pattern of Urban Agglomeration
The following is the The real estate pattern of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta will be differentiated and developed under the new cycle From Study on real estate pattern of Urban Agglomeration recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Chinese economy.
The Yangtze River Delta has a developed economy and population. For a long time, the real estate market has been one of the most important markets in China. In 2021, the sales volume of new commercial residential houses nationwide was 1.565 billion square meters, while the total sales volume of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta reached 347million square meters, accounting for 22.2% of the country. At present, the new pattern of integration in the Yangtze River Delta is rapidly advancing, and the urban and regional values are also changing and improving, bringing new changes and opportunities for the development of real estate. Combing and analyzing the real estate pattern of cities in the Yangtze River Delta will help us correctly understand the future development direction of cities in the new cycle of real estate development.
1、 Dependence on real estate investment: relatively high compared with the whole country and showing an upward trend
1. Pattern of real estate investment dependence
Shanghai: the overall dependence is low, and the future trend will continue to decrease.
From 2016 to 2021, the overall average value of Shanghai’s dependence on real estate investment was 11.9%, which was lower than that of the whole country and showed a downward trend. The dependence on real estate investment was the highest in 2016, reaching 13.5%, and the lowest in 2019, reaching 11.1%. 2016 is the upward cycle of the national real estate industry. In 2020, with the impact of the epidemic, Shanghai’s dependence on real estate investment has increased to stimulate real estate and economic development.
Jiangsu Province: the overall degree of dependence is low, and the north and south of Jiangsu are differentiated, which has been relatively higher in the past three years.
From 2016 to 2021, the overall average value of Jiangsu Province’s real estate investment dependence was 10.6%, lower than the national average, and decreased in the past three years. Among them, the real estate investment dependence was the highest in 2020, reaching 11.7%. After the national epidemic was effectively controlled in the first quarter of 2020, the real estate markets in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou in southern Jiangsu recovered rapidly, the local auction market was hot, and the real estate investment increased. In the second quarter, it began to spread from Nantong to northern Jiangsu, The annual real estate investment in Jiangsu increased significantly; In 2017, the dependence on real estate was the lowest, at 9.8%. As the national real estate market was hot in 2016, Suzhou, Nanjing real estate and other southern Jiangsu markets led the country. From the second half of the year to 2017, the regulatory policy was tightened, and the overall real estate investment in 2017 contracted.
From the perspective of cities, the overall urban dependence in southern Jiangsu is higher than that in Northern Jiangsu. From 2019 to 2021, only one of the 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, has a higher real estate investment dependency than the national average, and the other 12 cities are lower than the national average. Nanjing, Suzhou and Yangzhou have the highest degree of dependence. The average investment dependence of Nanjing in recent three years has reached 17.4%, which is much higher than the average level of the whole province. The average value of Suzhou in the second place in recent three years is 13.3%, showing a fault decline with Nanjing. Taizhou, the province’s lowest dependency in the past three years, is 7.3%. After the epidemic in 2020, Taizhou relied on real estate to drive the economy, and the investment reached a high level, with the dependency only reaching 9.3%. It can be seen that Taizhou’s dependence on real estate investment is low.
Zhejiang Province: the overall dependence is high, showing an upward trend in the past three years, and the dependence of cities around Shanghai is the highest.
From 2016 to 2021, the overall average value of Zhejiang Province’s real estate investment dependence was 15.8%, higher than the national average. In the past three years, the overall increase was achieved. In 2020, the real estate investment dependence was the highest, reaching 17.7%, similar to Jiangsu Province. After the national epidemic was controlled in the first quarter of 2020, the real estate markets of Hangzhou and Ningbo in Northern Zhejiang first recovered, followed by the increase in the market heat of Shaoxing, Jiaxing, Jinhua and other cities in southern Zhejiang, such as Quzhou and Lishui, also rose in the second half of the year, The annual real estate investment rose sharply; In 2016, the dependence on real estate was the lowest, 13.9%. As the overall township economy in Zhejiang was developed, the population was also small compared with that in Jiangsu, and the proportion of the economic structure relying on infrastructure and real estate was relatively low. In 2016, real estate had just reached its peak, and Zhejiang had not invested heavily in real estate development, so the dependence on real estate investment in 2016 was low.
From the perspective of each city, the regional dependency around Shanghai is higher than that of other cities as a whole. From 2019 to 2021, the real estate investment dependency of 9 of the 11 cities in Zhejiang was higher than the national average, and only 2 cities were lower than the national average. Hangzhou, Huzhou and Jiaxing have the highest degree of dependence, of which the average investment dependence of Hangzhou in the past three years has reached 21.4%. In recent years, Hangzhou has made great efforts to develop the construction of Hangzhou metropolitan area, with rapid urban expansion. The construction of the new area has promoted the long-term high level of real estate investment; Huzhou, which ranks second in terms of investment dependence, has an average of 19.1% in the past three years. Because Huzhou has attracted a large number of buyers from Hangzhou and Shanghai, it has promoted a relatively high proportion of real estate development; Jinhua, which has the lowest dependency in the province in the past three years, is 12.6%. Jinhua township is economically developed, and has jurisdiction over Dongyang and Yiwu counties with strong manufacturing economy. The dependency on real estate investment is relatively low.
Anhui Province: the overall dependence is high, showing a slight upward trend in the past three years, and the cities with GDP in the middle reaches of the province have the highest dependence.
From 2016 to 2021, the overall average value of Anhui’s real estate investment dependence was 18.9%, significantly higher than the national average, with a slight decline in the past three years. Among them, the dependence on real estate investment was the highest in 2017, reaching 19.9%. Due to the sharp rise of the national real estate market in 2016, customers around the Shanghai real estate market spilled over to Anhui, and the amount of real estate investment transmitted to 2017 increased significantly;
In 2016, the dependence on real estate was the lowest, 13.9%. Due to the underdeveloped economy and slow urban expansion and development in Anhui, although the real estate has a certain degree of dependence, it was only driven by the overall external market after 2016, so 2016 is still in the initial stage of the upward cycle.
From the perspective of each city, the cities with GDP in the middle reaches of the province are highly dependent on each other as a whole. From 2019 to 2021, the real estate investment dependency of 12 of the 16 cities in Anhui was higher than the national average, and only 4 cities were lower than the national average. Fuyang, Bengbu and Lu’an have the highest degree of dependence, of which the average investment dependence of Fuyang in recent three years has reached 30.0%; Bengbu, which ranks second in terms of investment dependence, has an average of 28.1% in the past three years; Anqing, the province’s lowest dependency in the past three years, was 10.3%.
2. Trend of real estate investment dependence
By comparing the average annual real estate investment dependence of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2019 to 2021 with the average annual value from 2016 to 2018, it is found that the real estate dependence in the Yangtze River Delta has shown differentiated development in recent three years, and the increase and decrease of dependence are relatively average. The largest number of cities with a decrease of 0-4% reached 17, mainly in Anhui and Jiangsu; There are 14 cities with an increase of 0-4%, mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
In terms of provinces, Shanghai’s overall dependence on real estate investment decreased slightly by 0.5%; The differentiation and development of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province is obvious. In southern Jiangsu Province, except Changzhou, the overall dependence shows a downward trend, and most cities in Central Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu show an upward trend; In the past three years, the overall dependence of Zhejiang Province has increased. Except Hangzhou, Zhoushan and Wenzhou, other cities have increased; Most of Hefei metropolitan area and cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province showed a decline, while the dependence of other cities showed an increase.
Overall, the changes in the real estate dependence of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta also reflect the laws of economic structure in recent years.
Shanghai is in the late stage of economic development and industrialization, and real estate development is no longer the main driving force in the economy. Therefore, the dependence on real estate is low and continues to show a downward trend. The economic scale of Jiangsu Province is the largest in the Yangtze River Delta, and the industry is strong. Therefore, the overall proportion of real estate investment will be relatively low. However, the regional development of Jiangsu is stronger in the South and weaker in the north. After the outbreak in 2020, the economic development of Northern Jiangsu is relatively more dependent on the support of real estate, so the dependence on real estate investment is increasing; The manufacturing industry in Zhejiang was severely impacted by the epidemic in 2020, and the leading per capita disposable income in the country provided power for the development of real estate in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, the dependence on real estate investment has increased significantly in the past two years. Around 2016, the urban expansion of Anhui Province was in the initial stage, with a per capita GDP of less than 8000 US dollars and a small total economic scale. Therefore, the dependence on real estate investment was higher than that of other provinces, but the scale of the real estate market was small, so it was at the low point of the cycle in recent years. In recent years, with the hot real estate market, the dependence has continuously increased.
2、 Market capacity: the total amount increases year by year, with the largest increase in Jiangsu Province
1. Sales pattern of commercial housing
The market capacity of the Yangtze River Delta is JiangSu > Anhui > Zhejiang > Shanghai. There are 9 cities whose annual average trading volume exceeds 10 million cubic meters.
From 2017 to 2020, the average annual turnover of commercial residential buildings in the Yangtze River Delta reached 306.26 million square meters, including 13.66 million square meters in Shanghai, 127.32 million square meters in 13 cities in Jiangsu, 80.61 million square meters in 11 cities in Zhejiang and 84.67 million square meters in 16 cities in Anhui. The average turnover in recent years is JiangSu > Anhui > Zhejiang > Shanghai from high to low. From the perspective of cities, there are 9 cities in the Yangtze River Delta whose annual average trading volume exceeds 10 million cubic meters, namely, Shanghai, Suzhou, Nantong, Xuzhou, Wuxi and Nanjing in Jiangsu Province, Hangzhou and Ningbo in Zhejiang Province, and Hefei in Anhui Province.
The average annual turnover of cities in Jiangsu Province is mainly between 10million m3 and 6million m3-8million m3, with 5 cities distributed in these two ranges. Suzhou has the largest trading volume in Jiangsu Province, with an annual average of 18.63 million cubic meters. Suzhou ranks first in Jiangsu in terms of population and GDP, which leads to a large trading volume.
The average annual turnover of cities in Zhejiang Province is mainly 8-10million square meters, including Jiaxing, Wenzhou and Shaoxing. Hangzhou has the largest trading volume in Jiangsu Province, with an annual average of 14.01 million cubic meters.
The average annual turnover of cities in Anhui Province is mainly below 4million cubic meters, including Anqing, Ma’anshan, Huainan, Tongling, Huaibei, Huangshan and Chizhou. Hefei has the largest trading volume in Anhui Province, with an annual average of 11.29 million m3.
2. Change trend of sales volume of commercial housing
The growth of trading volume in the Yangtze River Delta market is JiangSu > Zhejiang > Anhui > Shanghai. There are 10 cities with annual average increment of trading volume exceeding 1million cubic meters.
The average annual turnover of commercial housing in cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2019 to 2020 reached 314.22 million square meters, while the average annual turnover from 2017 to 2018 was 298.29 million square meters, an increase of 15.93 million square meters, showing an overall upward trend. Among them, Shanghai increased by 560000 m3, Jiangsu by 9.37 million m3, Zhejiang by 5.15 million m3 and Anhui by 840000 m3. From high to low, the annual increment of transaction volume is JiangSu > Zhejiang > Anhui > Shanghai. In terms of the scale of annual average growth of trading volume, there are 10 companies in the Yangtze River Delta whose trading volume increases by more than one million cubic meters, including Xuzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi and Nantong in Jiangsu Province, Ningbo, Huzhou and Jinhua in Zhejiang Province, and Fuyang, Hefei and Bozhou in Anhui Province.
The annual increment of transaction volume in Jiangsu Province is concentrated in the range of 0-1million square meters, including Xuzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong and Nanjing. The largest increase is in Xuzhou, which is mainly due to the continuous rise of house prices in Xuzhou for 54 months from 2016 to 2020, driving the annual increase of trading volume.
The annual increment of transaction volume in Zhejiang Province is also concentrated in the range of 0-1million square meters, including Wenzhou, Shaoxing, Jiaxing, Taizhou and Lishui. Ningbo has the largest increment.
The annual average volume of transactions in Anhui Province is mainly decreasing, with the reduction scale mainly ranging from 0 to 1million square meters. There are 7 cities in Bengbu, Chizhou, Huangshan, Lu’an, Huainan, Anqing and Xuancheng.
3、 Market price: the overall average price and increase are significantly higher than the national level. The average price in Zhejiang Province is outstanding, and the increase in Jiangsu Province is obvious
1. Commodity housing price level
The average price of houses in the Yangtze River Delta is Shanghai > Zhejiang > JiangSu > Anhui. There are 15 cities with an average price of more than 15000 yuan / square meter.
In 2021, the average transaction price of commercial housing in the Yangtze River Delta is 13759 yuan / m2, while the average sales price of commercial housing in China is 10398 yuan / m2, which is much higher than the national average. Among them, the average price in Shanghai is 55235 yuan / m2, the average price in Jiangsu Province is 14480 yuan / m2, the average price in Zhejiang Province is 17463 yuan / m2, and the average price in Anhui Province is 8130 yuan / m2. The order from high to low is Shanghai > Zhejiang > JiangSu > Anhui. The average transaction price of the Yangtze River Delta is more than 15000 yuan / square meter, including 15 cities in Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nantong in Jiangsu Province, Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Jinhua, Shaoxing, Zhoushan, Lishui and Taizhou in Zhejiang Province, and Hefei in Anhui Province.
The average price of cities in Jiangsu Province is mainly between 10000-15000 yuan / square meter, including Yangzhou, Xuzhou, Zhenjiang, Yancheng, Taizhou and Suqian. Nanjing has the highest unit price in the province, with an average transaction price of 29871 yuan / square meter in 2021. This is mainly because after the acceleration of the promotion pace of Nanjing metropolitan area in 2019, the urban value has a rapid upward trend in house prices.
The average price of cities in Zhejiang Province is mainly between 15000-20000 yuan / square meter, including Wenzhou, Ningbo, Jinhua, Shaoxing, Zhoushan, Lishui and Taizhou. Hangzhou has the highest unit price in the province. In 2021, the average transaction price reached 30839 yuan / square meter. The booming local auction market in Hangzhou in 2020 and the first half of 2021 directly raised the sharp rise in the transaction price in Hangzhou.
The average price of cities in Anhui Province is mainly between 7000-10000 yuan / square meter, including Ma’anshan, Huangshan, Bengbu, Fuyang, Chuzhou, Tongling, Xuancheng, Anqing and Chizhou. The highest unit price in the province is Hefei, with an average transaction price of 15355 yuan / square meter in 2021. In 2016, Hefei moved the government to Binhu New Area, and the construction of Binhu New Area has driven the overall sustained and rapid rise of the real estate market.
2. Growth rate of commodity housing price
The average price of houses in the Yangtze River Delta rose by JiangSu > Zhejiang > Anhui > Shanghai, and 11 cities saw an average price growth rate of more than 10%.
The compound growth rate of the average price of commercial housing in cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2017 to 2021 was 7.9%, while the compound growth rate of the national average price in the same period was 6.4%, which was higher than the national level in the Yangtze River Delta. The compound growth rate of average price in Shanghai is 3.4%, that in Jiangsu Province is 8.6%, that in Zhejiang Province is 7.9%, and that in Anhui Province is 7.3%. The order from high to low is JiangSu > Zhejiang > Anhui > Shanghai.
The average price of the Yangtze River Delta grew by more than 10% in 11 cases. Wuxi, Suqian, Changzhou and Yancheng in Jiangsu Province grew by more than 10%. The population inflow of Wuxi and Changzhou was fast, and the price limit policy was gradually increased after 2020. The price of Yancheng jumped from 2019 to 2020, and the price of Suqian rose rapidly in 2019. The price limit policies of these cities came out late, so the price increase was large. Shaoxing, Huzhou and Jinhua, where the average price growth rate exceeded 10%, saw a rapid rise in the average price due to the construction of Jinghu New Area in Shaoxing. Huzhou undertook a large number of customers from Hangzhou and Shanghai, pushing up the price. Yiwu and other counties and towns under the jurisdiction of Jinhua had developed economies and strong price bearing capacity, so the price rose significantly. Average prices in Anhui province increased by more than 10%, including Ma’anshan, Wuhu, Huangshan and Bengbu. Ma’anshan and Wuhu have relatively strong economic population in the province, while Huangshan is pushed higher by the price of tourism real estate. In the first half of 2021, the price of Bengbu will rise driven by Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
*Remarks: 1. Data sources: Statistical Yearbooks of provinces and cities, 58 anjuke, China real estate market website; 2. The average transaction price in Shanghai, Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province is the average price of the whole city. The average transaction price in Jiangsu Province is uniformly selected as the average price in the urban area because there are many city data not published.
1、 Resident leverage ratio: higher than that of the whole country, especially in Zhejiang Province
The deposit loan ratio of households in the Yangtze River Delta is Anhui > Shanghai > JiangSu > Zhejiang, and Zhejiang has the highest leverage ratio.
The average ratio of household deposit to loan balance in cities in the Yangtze River Delta in 2021 is 1.32, while that in the whole country is about 1.48, which is lower than that in the whole country. The deposit loan balance ratio of Shanghai households is 1.49, that of Jiangsu Province is 1.30, that of Zhejiang Province is 1.00, and that of Anhui Province is 1.55. The order from high to low is Anhui > Shanghai > JiangSu > Zhejiang. On the whole, Anhui has the lowest financial leverage ratio and the corresponding low risk, while Zhejiang has the highest leverage ratio.
13 cities in the Yangtze River Delta have a deposit loan balance ratio lower than 1.0. Suzhou, Suqian, Nanjing and Lianyungang in Jiangsu Province have a deposit loan ratio balance of less than 1.0. Suzhou and Nanjing, as large population and economic provinces, have high house prices and the development of commercial credit, which have promoted the continuous increase of the loan proportion in the amount of house purchase; The deposit loan ratio of households in Quzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Jiaxing in Zhejiang Province is lower than 1.0. In particular, the deposit loan ratio of households in Jiaxing is only 0.44. Jiaxing has a population of more than 5 million, but the average annual turnover of residential buildings is nearly 10million square meters. In addition to the many factors of foreign buyers, the high leverage purchase habits of local residents are also the reason why Jiaxing can maintain large-scale transaction volume for a long time. Chuzhou, Hefei, Wuhu and Ma’anshan are the cities with household deposits and loans lower than 1.0 in Anhui. Hefei metropolitan area and Nanjing metropolitan area are the cities in Anhui. In recent years, the real estate market has been relatively hot. The financial leverage of the city has been relatively improved and the risk has increased.
5、 Overall pattern of the real estate market:
By comprehensively combing the four dimensions and seven indicators of real estate dependence, market capacity, market price and residents’ leverage ratio, 41 urban real estate grids of three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta are compared and classified.
From the comparison of the volume and price of the new housing market in cities in the Yangtze River Delta, 19 cities have high transaction volume and high price, and will be the most important market in the whole region in the future. They are Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing, Nantong, Wuxi, Changzhou, Xuzhou, Suqian and Yancheng in Jiangsu Province, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing, Taizhou, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou and Jinhua in Zhejiang Province, Hefei and Suzhou in Anhui Province. Most of the above cities are distributed around Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou metropolitan area. The population has been in a state of net inflow for a long time. The urban value and local customer base provide a continuous driving force for the transaction scale and price. At the same time, foreign investment customers also promote the development of real estate. Other cities, such as Xuzhou and Jinhua, are located in the regional center, with large population thickness or high per capita income and great bearing capacity.
From the perspective of real estate dependence and financial leverage ratio, the real estate dependence is increasing. There are mainly 11 cities with low leverage ratio, and the real estate scale is likely to continue to have room for growth. They are Yangzhou, Nantong, Suqian, Changzhou, Xuzhou, Taizhou and Yancheng in Jiangsu, Tongling, Huainan, Huaibei and Anqing in Anhui. Most of these cities are in the period of rapid economic development, and their population and economic scale are in the middle reaches of the province. Therefore, the scale of the real estate market is relatively considerable. The effect of real estate driving the economy is good. Due to the increasing dependence on real estate and the small impact of foreign real estate enterprises and customers on the local market, local customers have not developed the consumption habit of leveraging the real estate market with high leverage, and the relative risk is low.
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