In 2022, the global semiconductor market increased by 22% year-on-year From IC Insights
The following is the In 2022, the global semiconductor market increased by 22% year-on-year From IC Insights recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: IC Insights, Hardware equipment industry.
The new version of McLean report of IC insights will be released in January next year. The report gives a preliminary overview and annual forecast of the semiconductor industry from 2022 to 2026. IC insights described the consistent data estimation model of the analysis organization, and the first quarter of a year and the fourth quarter of the previous year (1q / 4q) became the evaluation benchmark.
This figure is marked as a “direction indicator” because the actual 1q / 4q change does not directly predict the final annual semiconductor market growth in a given year, but more accurately describes the expected direction and year-on-year intensity of the annual semiconductor market growth rate. For example, 1q / 4q increased by 0% in 2017 and the annual growth rate of semiconductor market was 25%, while 1q / 4q increased by 1% in 2011, but the annual growth rate of semiconductor market was only 1%. The difference is that 1q / 4q changes compared with 1q / 4q changes of the previous year, that is, year-on-year growth is very critical.
Excluding the years after the severe recession of the semiconductor industry in 1985 and 2001, IC insights believes that the quarterly IC market change of 1q / 4q is also a good indicator of the change direction and intensity of the semiconductor market in the future. The reason why the model can well reflect the direction of the annual growth rate of the semiconductor industry lies in the seasonality of the semiconductor market itself. In view of the typical seasonal pattern of the semiconductor industry, a “foundation” was basically established in the first quarter, on which the semiconductor market growth in the next quarter will be based.
Overall, when 1q / 4q performance of a certain year is better than that of the previous year, the annual growth rate of that year can be expected to be better than that of the previous year. When the 1q / 4q performance of this year is worse than that of the previous year, the opposite is usually the case.
From 1984 to 2020, the average seasonal month on month decline of 1q / 4q global semiconductor market was 2%. In the first quarter of 2020, the semiconductor market decreased by 3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, slightly lower than the historical average. 1q21 / 4q20 semiconductor market increased by 3% (month on month), much better than 1q20 / 4q19 IC, which increased by – 3% month on month.
Therefore, IC insights believes that the full annual growth rate (26%) of the semiconductor market in 2021 may be higher than the 13% growth of the IC market in 2020, which is supported by the analysis model. On the contrary, since the first / fourth quarter of 2021, the semiconductor market is expected to decline by 3%, and the semiconductor market direction indicators show that the growth in 2022 is much lower than that in 2021 (11% in 2022 and 26% in 2021). If the growth of 1q22 / 4q21 semiconductor market is unexpectedly higher than – 3%, we may need to raise our current forecast of 11% next year.
It is worth noting that the total growth rate of 1q21 / 4q20 semiconductor market is 3%, which is the first positive growth of 1q / 4q IC market since 2011 (as shown in the figure below). As shown in the figure, among the 15 positive growth in the previous quarter since 1984, except for three of them (the shaded part in the figure), the semiconductor market has achieved strong double-digit growth throughout the year. For 2021, IC insights currently predicts that the growth rate of the global semiconductor market will be 26%, slightly higher than the average annual growth rate of 24% of the global semiconductor market since 1984, of which the growth rate of 1q / 4q IC market is positive.
Although the first quarter of this year is generally regarded as a “declining” quarter due to seasonal factors, a positive 1q / 4q market is not uncommon. In the 38 years from 1984 to 2021, 1q / 4q market had 16 positive growth (42%). Even if the time span is narrowed to the latest time range from 2000 to 2021, seven 1q / 4q semiconductor market changes are positive (i.e. the number is positive).
More reading of ziaijiwei: IC insights: Intel’s semiconductor revenue is expected to be 69.832 billion US dollars in 2019, the same as last year. IC insights: Samsung’s semiconductor product revenue is expected to plummet by 20% year on year in 2019. Worry free future: Q1 integrated circuit / semiconductor market supply and demand report in 2021. IC insights: global semiconductor manufacturer ranking forecast in 2020. Intel’s first IC insights: the first half of 2020 Huawei Hisilicon, the world’s top ten semiconductor manufacturers, first entered the top ten IC insights: in 2020 Q1, the sales ranking of the world’s top ten semiconductor manufacturers, Huawei Hisilicon entered the top ten IC insights: in 2020 Q1, the sales volume of Huawei Hisilicon reached US $2.67 billion and ranked among the top ten IC insights in the world: how strong are the three European semiconductor giants? IC Insights: the semiconductor shipments in 2021 are expected to exceed 1 trillion units, a record high in the world, IC Insights:2020 global semiconductor research and development expenditure will grow by 68 billion 400 million US dollars and grow by 5%IC Insights over the same period: the value of China made chip products will be raised to 45 billion 200 million US dollars in 2021, and the monthly capacity of Chinese mainland wafer fab will be fifth IC Insights: the global memory chip is expected to be 2018. The output value will exceed US $100 billion IC insights: the top ten fables in the world in 2017 IC insights: it is estimated that Samsung Electronics will surpass Intel to become the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer with a revenue of US $65.6 billion in 2017
If you want to get the full report, you can contact us by leaving us the comment. If you think the information here might be helpful to others, please actively share it. If you want others to see your attitude towards this report, please actively comment and discuss it. Please stay tuned to us, we will keep updating as much as possible to record future development trends.
RecordTrend.com is a website that focuses on future technologies, markets and user trends. We are responsible for collecting the latest research data, authority data, industry research and analysis reports. We are committed to becoming a data and report sharing platform for professionals and decision makers. We look forward to working with you to record the development trends of today’s economy, technology, industrial chain and business model.Welcome to follow, comment and bookmark us, and hope to share the future with you, and look forward to your success with our help.
