In April 2021, Tesla fell out of the top 20 in sales of new energy vehicles in Europe From EV Sales

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Tesla’s first mover advantage is running out, and the market is returning to normal.

On May 28, new energy vehicle sales statistics website EV sales released the sales ranking of new energy vehicles in Europe in April 2021, and Tesla unexpectedly fell out of the top 20. In April, Tesla Model 3 delivered only 1244 units in Europe, down 95% from the 28184 units delivered in March.

In April 2021, the sales volume of Tesla Model 3 in China also suffered a sharp drop, with a month on month decrease of more than 70%. At that time, data showed that more than 14000 Chinese made model 3 were exported to Europe, which was considered to be one of the important reasons for Tesla’s sales slump in China. But the above data show that this reason is not tenable.

What’s wrong with Tesla?

Through interviews with local consumers in Europe and comprehensive data analysis, Caijing believes that the impact of cyclical fluctuations and the strength of competing models jointly caused Tesla’s sales avalanche.

01  

April is a cyclical month of decline

As shown in the figure below, in March this year, Tesla’s European sales soared, because on January 21, Tesla sharply reduced the European price of model 3.

Take Germany as an example, the three models of model 3 are reduced by 3000-4000 euros respectively, and the entry-level version is reduced to 39990 euros. 40000 euros is an important threshold for the subsidy of new energy vehicles in Germany. Below this price, the subsidy will be increased from 7500 euros to 9000 euros, with additional subsidy. The price adjustment on January 21 will bring the actual discount of 5500 euros for the entry-level model 3. This led to a surge in bookings. However, because Tesla has no manufacturing base in Europe so far, the orders that surged in late January were delayed to February to March, which increased the delivery data of Tesla Model 3 in these two months.

The impact of price reduction gradually subsided in March, and the delivery waiting time of model 3 in various European countries returned to the normal cycle, that is, 3-4 weeks, from 5-6 weeks when it was scheduled in February. As Tesla does not have a manufacturing base in Europe, there will be a monthly delivery data trough after each big delivery. In 2020, this phenomenon has occurred twice, in April and October respectively.

In April every year, the European passenger car market will have a cyclical decline, which is very similar to the Chinese market, which is closely related to the product planning cycle of mainstream car companies.

In April 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe decreased by 37.88% month on month. In April 2020, affected by the epidemic, the fluctuation range doubled. The sales of passenger cars in Europe fell 78% month on month, new energy vehicles fell 63% month on month, and Tesla Model 3 fell even more, reaching 85%.

In April 2021, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe fell by 29.86% on a month on month basis, returning to normal, while Tesla’s decline was as high as 95% on a month on month basis, which can not be explained only by cyclical fluctuations.

02  

Volkswagen Audi attack Tesla

In addition to cyclical factors, the rise of several models in the table below well explains another reason for Tesla’s slump – Volkswagen Group began to fully open up in the European new energy vehicle market. This is more important than cyclical factors.

Among the changes in the sales volume of the leading models, the two Volkswagen ID models have the most outstanding performance. Id.3 has continued the good momentum since it was launched in Europe. Even under the pressure of the market downturn in April, it still delivered the result of a month on month increase of nearly 19%. Id.4 has achieved more outstanding results. It began to deliver in batches in Europe in March, ranked fifth in sales volume in that month, and topped the European sales list in April. The two ID models put great pressure on Model 3.

In addition to the entry market, Volkswagen’s Audi brand continues to squeeze Tesla’s market space in the field of high-end luxury new energy vehicles. In April, Audi e-tron sales rose 19.45% month on month. It has been more than one year since the launch of e-tron. The sales performance shows that this car dominates the European luxury pure electric vehicle market. Compared with it, the sales performance of Tesla’s model s and X is poor. Local European consumers told Caijing that in the field of luxury cars, Tesla’s workmanship and relatively independent design give consumers a negative impression.

Considering the time cost of logistics and customs clearance, more than 14000 model 3 units exported from China to Europe will be delivered to European subscribers in May. Therefore, Tesla’s European sales in May should pick up significantly. However, under the strong pressure of Volkswagen ID, it is extremely difficult for model 3 to achieve a monthly sales of more than 20000 yuan in Europe.

On May 28, on the same day that the sales list of new energy vehicles in Europe was released, the US professional media electek.com issued an article saying that Tesla had sent an email to the car owners to launch the voluntary recall of model 3 and model y models, with the purpose of checking the fastening bolts of the tire brake calipers.

“The brake caliper fastening bolts for certain vehicles may not be in place with the correct torque,” the email said. As time goes on, the bolts may loosen, causing the brake caliper to contact with the wheel hub, resulting in abnormal noise, limited tire rotation and even tire pressure loss. The vehicles involved are model 3 produced by North American factories from December 2018 to March 2021 and model y produced from January 2020 to January 2021. “

The dispute of brake failure has been accompanied by Tesla for a long time. Both in North America and China, there are a large number of complaints about Tesla’s brake failure. This voluntary recall just involves the brake calipers. Among the possible failures, the limited rotation of tires will affect the wheel speed sensor and lead to ABS failure. Tire pressure loss can also lead to abnormal operation of the brake system.

Tesla’s second quarter started very bleakly with sales plummeting and voluntary recalls, but this is actually a return to market normality. The new energy vehicle market is a competitive market with many strong players.

With the competitors catching up, Tesla’s first mover advantage is being gradually eroded, and the new energy vehicle market has entered an era in which all the competitors are competing.

EV sales: Model 3 dominates global new energy vehicle sales in March 2020 Q1 global new energy vehicle ranking Tesla Model 3 is the God of passenger Federation: China’s new energy vehicle sales in November 2020 exceed 21000 evsales: global new energy vehicle sales in May 2020 New energy vehicle list model 3 sales volume 20000 Passenger Car Association: in April 2020, new energy narrow sense passenger car sales volume 60000, a year-on-year decrease of 29.9% China Automobile Association: in 2020, Q1 new energy vehicle sales volume fell more than 50% evtank: it is estimated that the global new energy vehicle sales volume will reach 12 million in 2025, accounting for 45.8% in China China Auto Association: 1.159 million new energy vehicles will be produced from January to November 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. China Association of automobile industry: the sales of new energy vehicles will increase by 238.5% in January 2021. China Society of Automotive Engineering: China’s new energy vehicles will exceed 15 million in 2030 Cheng Xuexue: in the first half of 2015, China’s total sales of new energy vehicles reached 72711, surpassing the United States and becoming the world’s largest market

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