Talent attraction ranking of Chinese cities in 2021 From Zeping macro
The following is the Talent attraction ranking of Chinese cities in 2021 From Zeping macro recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: Online recruitment.
1 Data Description: decipher talent flow trend through cross city job data
Population is the basis of all economic and social activities, and talent is the first resource. However, there is a lack of data to reflect the flow of talent. The size and proportion of China’s working age population aged 15-64 peaked in 2011 and 2013 respectively, marking the disappearance of the demographic dividend that had supported the rapid economic development for a long time in the past. China urgently needs to turn to the talent dividend. Moreover, from the perspective of natural population growth trend, China’s total population will peak in the 14th Five Year Plan period, and then enter into negative growth. In this context, since 2017, about 100 cities across the country have launched a “war to grab people”, which is not only for young people, but also for talents. Generally, population mobility can be analyzed through official resident population data, but there is a lack of data reflecting talent mobility, especially in non census years. Therefore, Zeping macro and Zhilian recruitment jointly launched the “talent attraction ranking of Chinese cities” report in order to accurately grasp the trend of talent flow.
Data description and characteristics: Zhilian recruitment has about 230 million registered users, with an average of 6.3 million active users (including users who log in and have job-hunting behavior) every day. Among them, about 90% of the users who have resume delivery behavior in that year are college graduates or above, far more than 14.6% of the total employment population in China (2015 census data); Among the job seekers, about four become cross city job seekers, that is, floating talents who live in different cities and whose resumes are applied to different cities. Due to the epidemic situation in 2020, the number of cross city job seekers will decrease by 2.3% compared with that in 2019. There are obvious monthly fluctuations in job hunting and cross city job hunting. The peak of job hunting is generally in March after the Spring Festival. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, the peak of job hunting will move back slightly. In March 2020, the proportion of job seekers and floating population is 11.6% and 13.4% respectively, and in 2019, it is 11.3% and 13.1% respectively.
1) From the perspective of gender, in 2020, 57% of the floating talents are men, which is significantly higher than 53% of the total number of job seekers. Men are more likely to apply for jobs across cities. In 2020, the ratio of male to female is 53:47, and the ratio of male to female of mobile talents is 57:43, indicating that men are more likely to apply for jobs across cities. In 2019, the above ratios are 54:46 and 60:40 respectively, and the gender ratio of floating talents in 2020 is more balanced.
2) In terms of age, over 8 of the floating talents are 18-35 years old. In 2020, 31.4%, 32.0%, 20.9%, 9.1%, 3.7% and 2.9% of the job seekers are 18-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40, 41-45 and 46 years old or above; The proportion of different age groups of job seekers in different places is 37.1%, 31.5%, 17.8%, 7.7%, 3.2% and 2.7% respectively. The age structure of job seekers and mobile talents is relatively consistent, with the proportion of 18-35 years old accounting for 84.3% and 86.4% respectively. In 2019, the proportion is 85.1% and 84.4% respectively. In 2020, job seekers from different places are more concentrated in 18-35 years old.
3) From the perspective of educational background, 57% of the floating talents have bachelor’s degree or above, which is significantly higher than 49% of the total number of job seekers, indicating that highly educated talents are more likely to apply for jobs across cities. In 2020, the proportion of junior high school and below, senior high school, junior college, undergraduate and postgraduate degree of job seekers is 2.4%, 5.7%, 43.1%, 43.2% and 5.6% respectively, among which the proportion of different degree of job seekers in different places is 1.5%, 4.0%, 38.0%, 49.1% and 7.5% respectively. The proportion of undergraduate and postgraduate degree of floating talents is higher than the overall level. In 2020, the proportion of undergraduate and above degree of floating talents is 56.6% It is 7.8 percentage points higher than the overall 48.8% of job seekers. In 2019, the above percentages are 50.7% and 46.2% respectively, indicating that job seekers with bachelor degree or above are more competitive in the workplace and more likely to apply for jobs across cities.
4) In terms of working years, 48% of the floating talents have worked for 5 years or less, which is higher than 41% of the total number of job seekers. New employees are more likely to apply for jobs across cities. In 2020, 3.3%, 18.7%, 18.9%, 29.6%, 24.5% and 5.1% of the job seekers have worked for less than one year, 1-3 years, 3-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years and more than 20 years, respectively. Among the job seekers from other places, 4.5%, 23.6%, 20.2%, 26.5%, 20.8% and 4.5% have worked for less than five years, 40.9% and 48.2% respectively, It shows that the career development and life vision of some new employees are still uncertain, and they are more likely to apply for jobs across cities. In 2019, the above proportions will be 43.6% and 45.7% respectively. In 2020, the floating talents will be more concentrated in five years or less.
5) In terms of salary level, 42% of the floating talents have a monthly income of more than 6000 yuan, slightly higher than 40% of the total number of job seekers. Those with higher income are more likely to apply for jobs across cities. Among the job seekers, 29.8%, 30.7%, 17.2%, 9.3%, 7.9% and 5.2% of them have a monthly income of 4000 yuan or less, 4001-6000 yuan, 6001-8000 yuan, 8001-10000 yuan, 10001-15000 yuan and more than 15000 yuan, respectively. Among the mobile talents, 30.4%, 27.9%, 17.3%, 9.8%, 8.8% and 5.8% of them have a monthly income of 6000 yuan or more, 39.5% and 41.7% respectively, In 2019, the above proportions are 39.9% and 44.8% respectively, indicating that talents with higher income are more likely to apply for jobs across cities.
6) In terms of industry, 50.3% of the floating talents are distributed in it, real estate and manufacturing industries, which is higher than 48.0% of the total job seekers. The top three industries with the largest number of job seekers in 2020 are it | communication | electronics | Internet, real estate | construction, production | processing | manufacturing, accounting for 19.8%, 14.9% and 13.3% respectively, accounting for 48.0% in total; The top three industries with the largest number of mobile talents are also the above three industries, accounting for 19.1%, 17.4% and 13.8% respectively, accounting for 50.3% in total, indicating that the distribution of mobile talents is more concentrated, and the distribution of mobile talents in real estate and construction industry is much higher than that of all job seekers. From the perspective of secondary industry distribution, the top five industries with the largest number of job seekers in 2020 are real estate / construction / building materials / engineering, Internet / e-commerce, education / training / colleges, professional services / Consulting (Accounting / law / human resources, etc.), retail / wholesale, accounting for 35.9%; The top five industries with the largest number of mobile talents are slightly different. The fifth is electronic technology / semiconductor / integrated circuit, accounting for 37.8%.
2 list overview: Talent Gathering in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
2.1 top 100 cities with the most attractive talents in China: Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai rank the top three
From the perspective of talent attraction index, in 2020, Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai ranked in the top three, Beijing ranked first for the first time in recent three years, and Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chengdu, Ningbo and Changsha ranked in the top ten. In order to measure the talent attraction of a city, the talent attraction index is defined as the weighted result of the proportion of talent inflow, the proportion of net talent inflow, the proportion of fresh graduates, the proportion of talents with master degree or above, the per capita disposable income and the net population inflow. The proportion of talent inflow = the number of talents flowing into a city / the total number of floating talents in China, and the proportion of net talent inflow = (the number of talents flowing into a city – the number of talents flowing out of a city) / the total number of floating talents in China, which respectively reflect the ability of the city to attract and retain. Among them, the talent flowing into a city refers to the talent whose current residence is not in the city, but whose resume has been applied to the city; The talent flowing out of a city refers to the talent whose current residence is the city but whose resume has been transferred to other cities; The total number of floating talents in China refers to the talents whose current residence and resume are not consistent. The proportion of the inflow of fresh graduates = the total number of fresh graduates / fresh graduates applying for jobs in a city, and the proportion of the inflow of talents with master’s degree or above = the total number of graduates with master’s degree or above applying for jobs in a city, respectively reflecting the attraction of the city to young college students and talents with higher education. From the results, as a political, economic and cultural center, Beijing’s talent attraction index ranked first in 2016 and returned to the top four years later; As the impact of the epidemic gradually dissipates, the recruitment efforts of enterprises and institutions increase, and the salary advantage is obvious, Beijing maintains a high attraction for job seekers. With the relaxation of population control policies, the trend of brain drain in Beijing eases, and the brain drain turns into a net inflow, ranking first in 2020 from 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in 2017-2019“ Hangzhou, as a “new front line” city, has witnessed rapid industrial development, improved human settlement environment and talent treatment, and its attractiveness ranking has risen from the fifth place in 2017-2019 to the second place in 2020; Shanghai’s economy is large and growing steadily, ranking first, first, and second in 2017-2020, while Shenzhen’s ranking goes down, ranking second, second, third, and fourth in 2017-2020, and Guangzhou’s ranking fourth, fourth, fourth, and fifth in 2017-2020; Nanjing, Suzhou and Chengdu are relatively stable, with Nanjing ranking sixth, seventh, sixth and sixth; Chengdu ranked 7,7,7,8; Suzhou ranked 8,9,9,7; Ningbo and Changsha will be among the top ten in 2020, and Ningbo will be the ninth, up from the 22nd in 2019; Changsha ranked 10th, up 8 places from 18th in 2019. Among the top 50 in 2020, there are 36, 5, 7 and 2 in eastern, central, Western and northeast regions respectively; There are 4, 29, 16 and 1 cities in the first, second, third and fourth tier cities, accounting for 100.0%, 82.9%, 19.5% and 0.5% of the first, second, third and fourth tier cities respectively; There are 18, 7, 3, 2 and 3 urban agglomerations in Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Chengdu Chongqing and middle reaches of Yangtze River respectively.
In 2020, 20.7% and 30.9% of fresh graduates, masters and above will send their resumes to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou respectively, which are higher than the overall proportion of 19.07% of floating talents flowing to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Fresh graduates, masters and above are more eager to gather in the first and second tier cities. From the perspective of fresh students, the top four in terms of talent inflow were from Beijing to Shenzhen and Guangzhou, accounting for 20.7%, higher than 19.1% in terms of talent inflow from Beijing to Shenzhen and Guangzhou; Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Xi’an and Wuhan are among the top ten cities for the inflow of fresh talents, accounting for 40.0% of the total, and 35.5% of the total is higher than that of the top ten cities, which means that compared with the floating talents, fresh talents are more concentrated in the first and second tier cities. Compared with 2019, in 2020, the proportion of fresh students flowing into Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai decreased by 1.3%, 0.9% and 0.9% respectively, while the proportion of fresh students flowing into Wuhan and Hangzhou increased by 0.2% and 0.2% respectively. From the perspective of talents with master’s degree or above, the top four in the inflow of talents with master’s degree or above are beishangshen and Chengdu, accounting for 31.3% of the total, which is higher than 18.5% of the inflow of talents from beishangshencheng; Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Tianjin, Xi’an and Wuhan are among the top ten cities for talents with master’s degree or above, accounting for 51.4% of the total, and 35.1% of the total is higher than that of the top ten cities, which means that compared with floating talents, talents with master’s degree or above are more eager to gather in the first and second tier cities, especially in the first tier cities. Compared with 2019, the proportion of talents with master’s degree or above flowing into Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 1.5% and 0.8% respectively, while the proportion of talents flowing into Chengdu, Xi’an, Suzhou and Nanjing increased by 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively.
2.2 talent flow trend: talent concentration in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, talent outflow from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei
The proportion of net talent inflow is the core index of talent attraction index, which is equal to (talents flowing into a city – talents flowing out of a city) / the total number of floating talents in China.
1) In terms of regions, in 2020, the inter regional mobility of talents in eastern China will decrease, while that in central and Western China will increase. The net inflow of talents in eastern, central, Western and Northeast China will account for 11.5%, – 5.1%, – 2.7%, – 3.7% respectively. Talents in eastern China will continue to gather, while those in central, Western and Northeast China will continue to flow out. Of the 296 prefecture level cities (excluding Sansha city), 87, 80, 95 and 34 are in the East, middle, West and northeast of China. From the perspective of the proportion of talent inflow and outflow, from 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in the eastern region is 63.2%, 60.8%, 61.6% and 59.6% respectively, and the proportion of talent outflow is 57.0%, 55.1%, 55.83% and 48.08% respectively. In 2020, the proportion of talent inflow and outflow will decrease, while the mobility of talent in the eastern region will decrease, but nearly 60% of the national floating talents will still gather in the East; The proportion of the inflow and outflow of talents in the central and western regions are on the rise, and the mobility of talents is improved; The proportion of talent inflow in Northeast China is 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.3% and 5.1% respectively, decreasing year by year, while the proportion of talent outflow is 8.2%, 8.3%, 8.5% and 8.8% respectively, increasing year by year. From the perspective of the proportion of net talent inflow over the years, the eastern part of China will be 6.2%, 5.7%, 5.8% and 11.53% respectively from 2017 to 2020, maintaining a high level; 2%, – 2. 4%, – 2. 4%, – 5; 7%, – 0. 3%, – 0. 2%, – 2; 3%, – 3. 0%, – 3.
2) From the perspective of sub tier cities, the inter regional mobility of talents in the first tier cities will decrease in 2020, while the mobility of talents in the third and fourth tier cities will increase. The net inflow of talents in the first, second, third and fourth tier cities will account for 3.5%, 3.4%, – 1.0% and – 5.8% respectively, and that in 2019 will be – 2.7%, 1.1%, 1.8% and – 0.3% respectively, Affected by the relaxation of the policy, the first-line talent turned into a net inflow, the third line was relatively balanced, and the fourth line continued to flow out. We divide 296 cities at prefecture level and above into first, second, third and fourth tier cities [see “China’s urban development potential ranking: 2019” of Zeping macro report in April 2019 for details], including 4 first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, 35 second tier cities, 81 third tier cities and 176 fourth tier cities. From the perspective of the proportion of talent inflow and outflow, the proportion of talent inflow and outflow in the first tier cities showed a downward trend from 2017 to 2020, with an obvious decline in 2020, indicating that the tendency of talent cross regional flow in the first tier cities was weakened during the epidemic period; The proportion of talent inflow in the second tier cities is 46.3%, 47.9%, 46.4% and 46.2% respectively. About half of the talents flow into the second tier cities, and the proportion of talent outflow will decrease in 2020; 3%, 18. 6%, 20. 8% and 21. 3% respectively. The proportion of talent inflow in the third tier cities has increased significantly in recent two years, and the proportion of talent outflow will increase in 2020; The proportion of talent inflow in the fourth tier cities was 11.6%, 11.6%, 12.6% and 13.4% respectively, and the increase was more obvious. However, the proportion of talent outflow also increased significantly. The inter regional flow of talents in the third and fourth tier cities was relatively more active. From the perspective of the proportion of the net inflow of talents, the proportion of the first-line talents will be – 0.5%, – 0.9%, – 2.7% and 3.5% respectively from 2017 to 2020. The proportion of the net inflow of talents will turn positive in 2020, which is mainly affected by the slowing trend of the outflow of talents; 2%, 3.6%, 1.1% and 3.4% respectively, and the second-line talents continue to gather; 3%, – 0. 3%, – 1. 8%, – 1. 0%, respectively; The four levels were – 2.5%, – 2.3%, – 0.3%, – 5.8% respectively, and the trend of net outflow of talents intensified.
3) From the perspective of urban agglomerations, more than 6 adults will flow to the five urban agglomerations. In 2020, the net inflow of talents in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Chengdu Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will account for 6.4%, 3.8%, – 0.7%, 0.1% and – 1.2% respectively. Talents in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta will gather, and the overall outflow of talents from Beijing Tianjin Hebei will be net, The net outflow of talents continued in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. From the perspective of the proportion of talent inflow and outflow, the proportion of talent inflow and outflow in the Yangtze River Delta show a downward trend, with 22.00% and 15.57% respectively in 2020; The proportion of the inflow of talents in the Pearl River Delta is relatively stable, and the proportion of the outflow of talents decreases slightly year by year; From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent outflow from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was 16.2%, 17.0%, 17.3% and 13.3% respectively, which increased year by year and then slowed down; The proportion of talent inflow and outflow in Chengdu, Chongqing and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are relatively stable. From 2017 to 2020, 64.7%, 64.5%, 63.1% and 61.4% of the talents will flow into the five major urban agglomerations respectively, all exceeding 60%. From the perspective of the proportion of the net inflow of talents, the Yangtze River Delta will be 4.6%, 4.6%, 5.0% and 6.4% respectively from 2017 to 2020. The proportion of the net inflow of talents is higher than that of other urban agglomerations, and a large number of talents will gather in the Yangtze River Delta; The Pearl River Delta is 2.0%, 2.2%, 2.8% and 3.8% respectively, and the net inflow of talents is increasing year by year; 9%, – 2. 9%, – 4. 0%, – 0. 7%, respectively. The net outflow of talents has been maintained, but the scale has been reduced, mainly due to the negative impact of the net inflow of talents in Hebei; Chengdu and Chongqing are – 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.0% and 0.1% respectively, and the inflow and outflow are basically balanced; 0%, – 0. 3%, – 0. 5%, – 1. 2% respectively in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Affected by the epidemic factors, there will be a net outflow of talents in 2020.
3. Key cities: going north to Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ningxia, Hanrong, the proportion of net inflow of talents has increased, and the flow of talents in urban agglomeration has become the mainstream
From the perspective of key cities, we select the top ten cities with the most development potential [see Zeping macro report “China’s top ten cities with the most development potential: 2019” in May 2019] (Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin, Hangzhou) as the observation objects, and make a specific analysis according to the first and second tier cities.
3.1 first tier cities: the downward trend of the net inflow of talents from the North stops, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou still show an upward trend
In terms of the proportion of net talent inflow in 2020, the four first tier cities going north to Shenzhen and Guangzhou are 0.2%, 1.2%, 1.3% and 0.9% respectively, with Shenzhen being the highest and Beijing the lowest. From the perspective of the trend change of the proportion of net talent inflow from 2017 to 2020, Beijing and Shanghai will decrease year by year due to strict population control and industrial decentralization, and will pick up in 2020, with 0.2% and 1.2% respectively; Guangzhou is on the rise year by year, while Shenzhen is on the rise, rising from 0.1% and 0.5% to 1.3% and 0.9% respectively, mainly because of the rapid development of Guangzhou, the lowest cost of living among the first tier cities, the largest number of college students in China, the rapid economic development of Shenzhen and the strong talent attraction policy.
1) Beijing: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for – 2.3%, – 2.7%, – 3.9% and 0.2% respectively, which continued to be negative and turned into positive in 2020, mainly due to Beijing’s strict control of population and industry in the past, and increased recruitment and retention efforts by enterprises and institutions until the resumption of production and work this year; During the epidemic period, the scope of population flow narrowed. Tianjin replaced Shanghai and became the first target city of talent inflow and outflow in Beijing. The proportion of talent outflow from Beijing to Tianjin and Tianjin to Beijing in the total number of floating talents in China was 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. The net flow of talents from Tianjin to Beijing was from Tianjin. The increment of Beijing’s permanent resident population is declining year by year, from 570000 to – 170000 in 2011-2018, and narrowed to – 10000 in 2019. It is negative for three consecutive years in 2017-2019, and the increment of Beijing’s permanent resident population is always the lowest among the first tier cities in 2016-2019. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Beijing was 7.3%, 7.1%, 6.3% and 6.0% respectively, which continued to decline, but the proportion of talent outflow continued to rise. In the next 20 years, the proportion of talent outflow decreased, reaching 9.6%, 9.9%, 10.2% and 5.9% respectively. Beijing’s talent inflow and talent outflow ranked first in China, but in the past, the outflow increased year by year, and the outflow was significantly greater than the inflow, The proportion of the net inflow of talents is – 2.3%, – 2.7%, – 3.9% respectively. Until 2020, the outflow of talents will slow down and the net outflow will turn into a positive value. In terms of sources, Tianjin, Shanghai, Langfang, Baoding, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, Shenyang, Chengdu, Xi’an and Shenzhen account for 39.7% of the talent inflow to Beijing in 2020. Talents flow into Beijing mainly because of its large economy and high salary level. In 2020, Beijing’s GDP will reach 3.6 trillion, ranking second only to Shanghai. At the same time, 8 of the 13 industries in Beijing have the highest salary among all cities, and the urban per capita disposable income ranks first in the country. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Beijing are Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Langfang, Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Jinan, Chengdu and Guangzhou, accounting for 42.8% of the total. Among them, 7.6% of the brain drain from Beijing went to Tianjin, and 27.7% of the brain drain from Tianjin went to Beijing. Beijing and Tianjin are the first target cities for brain drain. The brain drain from Beijing to Tianjin and Tianjin to Beijing accounted for 0.5% and 0.6% of the total brain drain in China, respectively. The net flow of talents from Tianjin to Beijing. The outflow of talents from Beijing is mainly due to Beijing’s population control and industrial decentralization. The “Beijing Tianjin Hebei coordinated development planning outline” issued in 2015 requires Beijing to move out of the capital’s core functions, and the permanent resident population of Beijing should be controlled within 23 million in 2020 and beyond. The data of talent flow in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei shows that the collaborative development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has entered a mid-term node, and Beijing continues to dredge the non capital core functions, docking collaborative industries with Tianjin and Hebei. According to the data of Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission, by the end of 2019, the total number of business registration business in Beijing has reached 22800; From 2014 to 2019, Beijing will withdraw 2759 general manufacturing enterprises, dredge and upgrade 631 markets, 122 logistics centers, and form a park chain with three real estate industries, transportation integration, and scientific innovation. The integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei promotes the accumulation of talents to Beijing. Among the top ten cities, Tianjin and Hebei account for 20.6%, higher than 15.6% in 2019,; Among the top ten cities of talent outflow from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei accounted for only 14.5%, up slightly from 13.6% in 2019. In terms of talent industry, 25.9% of Beijing’s inflow of talents in 2020 comes from it, communication, electronics and Internet industry, which is higher than that of other eight key cities except Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and 22.8% of Beijing’s outflow of talents to this industry; In 2019, Beijing’s it, communication, electronics and Internet industries accounted for only 23.4% of the inflow of talents, which was lower than 29.7% of the outflow of talents. In 2020, Beijing will be more attractive to talents in it, communication, electronics and Internet industries.
2) Shanghai: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 1.2%, 0.9%, 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. The net inflow of talents continued to slow down in 2019 and before, mainly due to Shanghai’s population control and industrial transfer; The slowing down trend of net inflow will stop in 2020, mainly because the new economic promotion policy in Shanghai has achieved initial results and reduced the brain drain. From 2011 to 2019, the growth of permanent resident population in Shanghai will slow down significantly, with the increment decreasing from 440000 to 40000, of which two years will be negative. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Shanghai will be 6.1%, 5.6%, 5.2% and 4.7% respectively, which will continue to decline. The proportion of talent outflow will be 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.8% and 3.5% respectively. The inflow is greater than the outflow, and the proportion of net talent inflow will be 1.2%, 0.9%, 0.5% and 1.2% respectively. From the perspective of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Shanghai are Beijing, Suzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an and Hefei, accounting for 37.8% of the total, which is lower than 48.1% of the top ten places in 2019. The concentration of talent sources in Shanghai has declined. Among them, Beijing accounted for 9.2%, while there were four cities in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 15.0%. The main reason for the inflow of talents into Shanghai is that Shanghai has a large economy, high salary level, and took the lead in promoting the development of online economy during the period of epidemic prevention and control. In 2020, Shanghai’s GDP will reach nearly 3.9 trillion, ranking first in China; The per capita disposable income is 73600 yuan, second only to Beijing; On April 13, Shanghai released the action plan for promoting online new economic development to find new economic growth points. In 2020, 5.8% of Shanghai’s inflow of talents will go to the financial industry, which is significantly higher than that of the other nine key cities. Among the 13 industries, Shanghai ranks first in terms of salary and second in terms of salary, among which the financial industry ranks first in terms of salary. From the perspective of destination, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Beijing, Wuxi, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Yangzhou and Xi’an account for 53.3% of the brain drain in Shanghai. Among them, there are 6 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 34.6% of the total. The role of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta in diverting talents from Shanghai is significant. The outflow of talents from Shanghai is mainly due to the control of population size and industrial transfer in Shanghai. In 2016, the 13th five year plan of Shanghai and the outline of Shanghai urban master plan (2015-2040) require that the permanent resident population of Shanghai should be controlled within 25 million in 2020 and beyond. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in Shanghai decreased by 1666 from 2013 to 2018. In 2020, 7.2% and 7.1% of Shanghai’s outflow of talents come from the service industry and financial industry, which is higher than that of the other nine key cities, and 3.9% and 5.8% of Shanghai’s inflow of talents to this industry.
3) Shenzhen: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.2% and 1.3% respectively, which was mainly due to the rapid development of emerging industries, the loose household policy without index cap; Shenzhen and Guangzhou are each other’s first target cities for brain drain. The brain drain from Shenzhen to Guangzhou and from Guangzhou to Shenzhen account for 0.7% and 0.6% of the total number of floating talents in China respectively, and the scale is basically balanced. In 2015, the increase of permanent resident population in Shenzhen increased significantly from 150000 in 2014 to 600000, with an average increase of 530000 from 2015 to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Shenzhen is basically stable at about 4.8%, which is 5.1%, 5.0%, 4.7% and 4.6% respectively. However, the proportion of talent outflow shows a downward trend, which is 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.6%, 4.6% and 3.3% respectively. From the perspective of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Shenzhen are Guangzhou, Beijing, Dongguan, Shanghai, Wuhan, Changsha, Huizhou, Chengdu, Foshan and Xi’an, accounting for 43.0% of the total, which is lower than 52.8% of the top ten sources in 2019. The concentration of talent sources in Shenzhen has declined. Among them, there are 4 cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 22.5%; 12.0% of the talents flowing into Shenzhen come from Guangzhou, and 11.40% of the talents flowing into Guangzhou come from Shenzhen. Shenzhen and Guangzhou are the first cities of talent source. The inflow of talents into Shenzhen is mainly due to the relatively rapid economic development and the attractive talent policy. In 2020, Shenzhen’s GDP growth rate will be 3.1%, higher than the national average of 2.3%, and far higher than Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing’s 2.7%, 1.7% and 1.2%; From 2016 to 2020, the average GDP growth rate of Shenzhen will be 7.0%, higher than that of Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing by 6.2%, 5.6% and 5.5%. Shenzhen also has many famous enterprises such as Huawei, Tencent and Ping’an, especially Internet enterprises, which attract a large number of talents. According to the data of Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of human resources and social security, in 2016, Shenzhen increased the rent related subsidies for full-time undergraduates, masters and doctors from 6000, 9000 and 12000 yuan to 15000, 25000 and 30000 yuan, respectively. In 2017, the threshold for settlement was relaxed to talents under the age of 35 with college degree, The newly introduced academicians, outstanding talents, local leading talents and reserve talents of the two academies will be awarded 3 million, 2 million and 1.6 million respectively. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Shenzhen are Guangzhou, Dongguan, Beijing, Huizhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Foshan, Wuhan, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, accounting for 53.7% of the total, which is almost the same as 53.9% of the top ten destinations in 2019. There is no obvious change in the direction of brain drain in Shenzhen. Among them, Guangzhou accounted for 13.1%, and there were four cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 31.0% of the total; 13.1% of the brain drain from Shenzhen went to Guangzhou, and 18.7% of the brain drain from Guangzhou went to Shenzhen. Shenzhen and Guangzhou ranked first among the target cities for brain drain. The brain drain from Shenzhen to Guangzhou and from Guangzhou to Shenzhen accounted for 0.4% and 0.6% of the total brain drain in China, respectively. The scale was basically balanced. In 2020, it, communication, electronics and Internet accounted for 30.7% and 29.3% of the industry talents flowing into and out of Shenzhen, which were far higher than the other nine cities. Shenzhen’s it, communication, electronics and Internet industry talents flow frequently.
4) Guangzhou: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. The net inflow of talents continued to grow steadily, mainly due to the rapid development of Guangzhou and the lowest cost of living among the first tier cities. The increase of permanent resident population in Guangzhou is on the rise, from 40000 to 400000 in 2011-2019. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Guangzhou is basically stable at about 4.1%, which is 4.3%, 4.2%, 3.9% and 3.8% respectively, showing a slight downward trend. The proportion of talent outflow continues to decline, which is 3.8%, 3.6%, 3.3% and 2.9% respectively. The inflow is greater than the outflow, making the proportion of net talent inflow 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.9% respectively, increasing year by year. In terms of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Guangzhou are Shenzhen, Beijing, Foshan, Dongguan, Shanghai, Changsha, Chengdu, Wuhan, Huizhou and Hangzhou, accounting for 41.0% of the total. Among them, Shenzhen accounted for 11.4%, and there were four cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 24.6%. The inflow of talents into Guangzhou is mainly due to the rapid development and low cost of living. In 2019, the GDP growth rate of Guangzhou will be 6.8%, higher than that of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen by 6.1%, 6.0% and 6.7%; In 2020, Guangzhou’s GDP will be 2.7%. 3% higher than the national average. The cost of living in Guangzhou is the lowest among the first tier cities. According to the global cost of living survey in 2019 released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a British economic analysis think tank, Shanghai and Shenzhen rank 25th in the global sample of 133 cities, while Beijing and Guangzhou rank 49th and 68th respectively; In 2019, the house price to income ratios of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are 26.5, 22.0, 21.4 and 13.2 years respectively, and the house price and living cost of Guangzhou are the lowest among the first tier cities. In 2020, 13.3% and 4.1% of Guangzhou’s talents will flow into trade, wholesale, retail, leasing and service industries, which is significantly higher than the other nine key cities. The top ten cities of brain drain in Guangzhou are Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai, Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huizhou, Zhongshan and Changsha, accounting for 58.2% of the total. Among them, Shenzhen and Foshan accounted for 18.7% and 12.2% respectively, and there were 6 cities in the Pearl River Delta, accounting for 46.2%, higher than 44.9% in 2019. Compared with 14.49% of Beijing’s talents flowing to the Beijing Tianjin Hebei metropolitan area, 34.6% of Shanghai’s talents flowing to the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area, and 32.3% of Shenzhen’s talents flowing to the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area, Guangzhou’s talents flowing to the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area accounted for a significantly higher proportion. On the one hand, the Pearl River Delta is mostly Cantonese speaking cities with similar culture. On the other hand, there are a large number of colleges and universities in Guangzhou. Talents from Guangdong Province gather in Guangzhou to study and return to other cities in the province after graduation. According to the data of the Ministry of education, the number of ordinary universities and 211 universities in Guangzhou are 37 and 6 respectively, ranking fifth and sixth respectively; According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of students in Guangzhou in 2019 is 1.141 million, ranking first in China.
3.2 second tier cities: the proportion of net inflow of talents from Hangzhou, Ningxia, Hanrong is on the rise, while that from Chongqing and Tianjin is on the decline
From the perspective of the proportion of net talent inflow in 2020, the six key second tier cities Hangzhou, Ningxia, Chongqing, Han, Tianjin and Chengdu are 1.6%, 0.9%, – 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.0% and 0.3% respectively, with Hangzhou being the highest and Chongqing the lowest. From the change of the proportion of net talent inflow in 2017-2020, Hangzhou has increased from 1.0% to 1.6% year by year, because the industry represented by e-commerce is developing rapidly and the salary is relatively high; Nanjing and Wuhan showed an upward trend, rising from 0.9% and 0.0% to 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The average GDP growth rate of Nanjing ranked the first among the ten cities in 2016-2020. In 2018, the “ningju plan” was implemented to attract talents, and in 2017, Wuhan implemented the policy of “millions of college students studying in China” to retain talents; Chongqing originally relied on information technology industry to attract talents, but by 2020, the ability of attracting talents in information technology industry will decline, which will drive the net inflow of talents to turn negative; The proportion of Tianjin’s net talent inflow has decreased year by year, from 0.2% to 0.0%, mainly due to the slowing down of development speed and the highest salary level among the ten cities. The proportion of Chengdu’s net talent inflow has changed from negative to positive, which makes it more attractive to young people.
1) Hangzhou: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 1.0%, 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, which has always been positive and rising year by year. The attraction of talents ranks at the forefront, mainly because the rapid development of industry represented by e-commerce, livable human environment and salary surpass Guangzhou, and Hangzhou ranks fourth among the top ten cities. From 2013 to 2019, the increment of permanent population in Hangzhou will gradually increase from 40000 to 550000, ranking the first in China. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Hangzhou is 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.4% and 3.4% respectively, and the proportion of talent outflow is 2.3%, 2.1%, 2.0% and 1.7% respectively. Talent inflow is significantly larger than that of outflow, making the proportion of net talent inflow 1.0%, 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, rising year by year and ranking first in China for three consecutive years. From the perspective of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Hangzhou are Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Xi’an, Zhengzhou, Ningbo, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Shaoxing, accounting for 36.2% of the total, which is significantly lower than 46.6% of the top ten talent sources of Hangzhou in 2019. The talent sources of Hangzhou are more diversified. Among them, 15.8% of the talents come from Shanghai and Beijing. The talents needed for the development of Hangzhou are mainly in the first tier cities, and Hangzhou also has the ability to seize talents from the first tier cities. Four of the top ten sources of Hangzhou come from the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 18.2% of the total. The talent flow into Hangzhou is mainly due to the rapid development of the industry, especially the e-commerce industry represented by Alibaba. According to Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of statistics, in 2019, the added value of Hangzhou’s digital economy industry will increase by 15.1%, of which the added value of e-commerce industry will increase by 14.6%, which is higher than the GDP growth rate of Hangzhou by 6.8%. In 2020, 29.5% of Hangzhou’s inflow of talents will flow to it, communication, electronics and Internet industries, which is significantly higher than that of the eight key cities except Shenzhen. Among them, 10.9% will flow to Internet / e-commerce secondary industries, which is higher than that of the other nine key cities. At the same time, Hangzhou’s salary is more attractive, ranking fourth among the ten key cities, higher than Guangzhou’s. among the 13 industries, Hangzhou’s salary ranks first, second, third and fourth. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Hangzhou are Shanghai, Ningbo, Suzhou, Beijing, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Xi’an, Shaoxing, Shenzhen and Jiaxing, accounting for 44.9% of the total. Five of them went to the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 26.4% of the total.
2) Nanjing: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 0.9%, 0.9%, 0.9% and 0.9% respectively, which was always positive and relatively stable, mainly due to the rapid development of electronic communication and manufacturing industry in Nanjing and the implementation of “ningju plan” to attract talents in 2018. Compared with other cities mentioned above, the increment of permanent resident population in Nanjing is relatively stable, fluctuating from 20000 to 100000 in 2011-2019, and 60000 in 2019. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Nanjing is 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.7% respectively, and the proportion of talent outflow is 2.1%, 1.9%, 1.9% and 1.8% respectively, all decreasing year by year, but the talent inflow is significantly greater than the outflow, which makes the proportion of net talent inflow in Nanjing be 0.9%, 0.9%, 0.9% and 0.9% respectively, which is basically stable. This is mainly due to the relaxation of settlement conditions and the rapid growth of electronic communication, manufacturing and other industries. In 2018, the “ningju plan”, namely the implementation measures for the settlement of talents, will be implemented. Employment will no longer be the premise for settlement, and the age requirement will be relaxed from 35 to 40. According to the Statistics Bureau of each city, in 2020, Nanjing’s GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, ranking first among the top ten key cities; In 2020, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Nanjing will grow by 6.5% year on year, higher than 2.8% in China, with new energy vehicles, industrial robots and integrated circuit industries as the most prominent industries. From the perspective of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Nanjing are Shanghai, Beijing, Suzhou, Hefei, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Xuzhou, Nantong and Yangzhou, accounting for 33.8% in total. Eight of them are in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 26.37% of the total. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Nanjing are Shanghai, Wuxi, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Beijing, Xuzhou, Changzhou, Nantong, Hefei and Yangzhou, accounting for 52.9% of the total. Nine of them are in the Yangtze River Delta, accounting for 48.7% of the total. The talent interaction between Nanjing and the Yangtze River Delta is very frequent, in part because there are many universities in Nanjing. Talents from the Yangtze River Delta gather in Nanjing to study and return to other cities in the Yangtze River Delta after graduation. According to the data of the Ministry of education, the number of ordinary universities and 211 universities in Nanjing are 34 and 10 respectively, ranking sixth and third respectively.
3) Chongqing: from 2017 to 2020, the proportion of net inflow of talents is – 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.3% and – 0.2% respectively. In 2018, the main reason is that it has strong talent attraction to the information technology industry. By 2020, the ability of attracting talents to the information technology industry will decline, which will drive the net inflow of talents to turn negative. The increment of permanent resident population in Chongqing remains at a high level, with an average increment of 270000 from 2011 to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Chongqing is on the rise, which is 1.3%, 2.0%, 1.8% and 1.3% respectively. The proportion of talent outflow is 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. As a result, the proportion of net talent inflow is – 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.3% and – 0.2% respectively, with strong fluctuation in recent years. From the source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Chongqing are Chengdu, Beijing, Xi’an, Guiyang, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou and Zunyi, accounting for 44.8% of the total. Among them, the proportion of Chengdu flowing into Chongqing reached 16.6%, which was higher than that of the first source of most cities, mainly because of its close geographical location and strong attraction of electronic industry. In 2019, 25.7% of Chongqing’s inflow of talents will flow to the it, communication, electronics and Internet industry, which is higher than that of the other eight key cities except Hangzhou, and also significantly higher than that of 13.1% of the outflow of talents engaged in this industry. However, in 2020, only 20.4% of Chongqing’s inflow of talents will flow to the it, communication, electronics and Internet industry, which is slightly higher than that of Tianjin in the 10 key cities, Chongqing is not as attractive to talents from it, communication, electronics and Internet industries as before. Among the inflow of talents, 16.6% went to the real estate and construction industry, which is higher than the other nine cities, but lower than 26.3% of the outflow of talents. According to the data from the National Bureau of statistics and the statistical yearbook of China’s electronic information industry, since 2018, Chongqing has focused on the construction of industrial Internet infrastructure and key breakthroughs. The number of electronic information enterprises above designated size has increased from 68 to 540 in 2008-2017, and to 639 by the end of 2019; According to the national software and information technology service industry information platform, in October 2020, Chongqing’s software business revenue grew by 16.3%. In terms of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Chongqing are Chengdu, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xi’an, Guiyang and Changsha, accounting for 51.0% of the total.
4) Wuhan: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 0.0%, 0.8%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. In 2017, it turned from negative to positive, mainly due to the implementation of the policy of “one million college students studying in China” and the low cost of living. From 2011 to 2019, the average increment of permanent resident population in Wuhan is 160000, and the permanent resident population keeps a high growth. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Wuhan will be 2.2%, 2.7%, 1.9% and 2.1% respectively, and the proportion of talent outflow will be 2.1%, 1.9%, 1.8% and 2.0%, which will decrease year by year, so that the proportion of net talent inflow will be 0.0%, 0.8%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Mainly because of the “one million college students’ Entrepreneurship and employment project in China” started in 2017, college students can buy comfortable housing or rent rental housing 20% below the market price; Graduates under the age of 40 can settle down with their diplomas, while those with master’s or doctor’s degrees can settle down directly without age restriction; The minimum annual salary for junior college, undergraduate, master and doctor is 40000 yuan, 50000 yuan, 60000 yuan and 80000 yuan respectively. According to the data released by the Organization Department of Wuhan municipal Party committee, a total of 1.095 million college students will be added from 2017 to 2019, and the target of 1 million in five years set in 2017 will be completed two years ahead of schedule; In 2020, there will be 302000 new college students studying in China. From the perspective of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Wuhan are Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Xi’an, Shanghai, Huanggang, Changsha, Nanchang, Zhengzhou and Xiaogan, accounting for 37.5% in total. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Wuhan are Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Xi’an, Chengdu, Changsha, Xiangyang and Yichang, accounting for 42.0% of the total.
5) Tianjin: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for 0.1%, – 0.1%, – 0.1% and 0.0% respectively, which decreased year by year and maintained at the 0% level for a long time. The main reasons are the slowing down of Tianjin’s development speed, the 1.5% GDP growth rate in 2020, which is in the bottom of the ten cities (Wuhan is negative due to the epidemic Center), and the lowest salary among the ten cities. The increase of permanent resident population in Tianjin shows a downward trend, from 560000 to 20000 in 2011-2019. From 2017 to 2020, the proportion of talent inflow in Tianjin is 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.1% respectively, which is relatively stable, and the proportion of outflow is 2.1%, 2.3%, 2.4% and 2.1% respectively, showing an overall upward trend, so that the proportion of net talent inflow is 0.1%, – 0.1%, – 0.1% and 0.0% respectively, which is close to 0%. From the source, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Tianjin are Beijing, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Langfang, Taiyuan, Harbin and Shanghai, accounting for 48.7% of the total. Among them, Beijing accounts for 20.8%, which is significantly higher than that of other cities as the first source, mainly because of its close geographical location. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Tianjin are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Shijiazhuang, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Langfang, Guangzhou, Qingdao and Jinan, accounting for 50.4% of the total. Among them, Beijing accounted for 27.7%, which was significantly higher than the first destination of other cities, mainly because of its close geographical location and many job opportunities. The outflow of talents from Tianjin is mainly due to the slow development speed and low salary level. According to the data of Statistics Bureau of various cities, Tianjin’s GDP growth rate in 2019 is 1.5%, ranking the bottom among the ten major cities (Wuhan is negative because it is the epidemic Center); The average year-on-year growth rate of GDP in 2016-2020 is 4.5%, which is not only much lower than the average growth rate of 12.6% in 2010-2016, but also much lower than the average growth rates of 7.0% and 7.3% in Hangzhou and Nanjing in 2016-2020; At the same time, Tianjin’s salary is relatively low. In 2020, 10 of the 13 industries in Tianjin will be the last in the ten cities in terms of salary level.
6) Chengdu: from 2017 to 2020, the net inflow of talents accounted for – 0.8%, – 0.3%, – 0.3%, – 0.6% and 0.3% respectively, which turned from negative to positive, making it more attractive to highly educated talents and young people; Chongqing and Chengdu are the first target cities for brain drain, and the net flow of talents from Chongqing to Chengdu. The increase of permanent resident population in Chengdu is on the rise in general, from 20000 to 250000 in 2011-2019, with a large change of 1.26 million in 2016. In 2020, the proportion of talents with master’s degree or above and fresh graduates in Chengdu will be 4.1% and 4.4% respectively, ranking the fourth and fifth in China respectively, which will maintain a high attraction for highly educated talents and young talents. In 2017-2020, Chengdu’s talent inflow accounted for 2.8%, 3.7%, 2.9% and 3.2% respectively, and the outflow accounted for 3.1%, 4.0%, 3.6% and 2.9% respectively. From the perspective of sources, the top ten cities of talent inflow to Chengdu are Chongqing, Beijing, Xi’an, Mianyang, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou, Deyang, Nanchong and Changsha, accounting for 39.1% in total. From the perspective of destination, the top ten cities of brain drain in Chengdu are Chongqing, Beijing, Xi’an, Mianyang, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Meishan, Guangzhou, Deyang and Wuhan, accounting for 40.7% of the total. Among them, 18.9% of the talents flowing out of Chongqing went to Chengdu, and 6.5% of the talents flowing out of Chengdu went to Chongqing. Chongqing and Chengdu are the first target cities of brain drain. The proportion of brain drain from Chengdu to Chongqing and from Chongqing to Chengdu in the total amount of floating talents in China is 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and the net flow of talents from Chongqing to Chengdu. In 2020, 27.3% of Chengdu’s outflow of talents comes from real estate and construction industry, which is significantly higher than that of other nine key cities, and is far higher than 12.7% of Chengdu’s inflow of talents to this industry.
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