Recovery during a pandemic From world economic prospects

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The International Monetary Fund released its latest “world economic outlook – recovery during the pandemic”, which analyzed health problems, supply disruptions and price pressures. The global economic recovery continues, even if the pandemic breaks out again.

The global economy is expected to grow by 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. The downgrade in 2021 reflects the downgrade of developed economies, partly due to supply disruptions; The main reason for the downgrade of low-income developing countries is the deterioration of epidemic dynamics.

It is expected that the global economic growth will slow down to about 3.3% after 2022. Output in developed economies is expected to exceed pre pandemic projections. In contrast, the output of emerging markets and developing economies will continue to decline, because compared with developed economies, vaccine promotion is slower and policy support is usually less.

The overall inflation rate in the United States and some emerging markets and developing economies has risen rapidly. In most cases, the rise in inflation reflects the supply-demand mismatch associated with the pandemic and the rise in commodity prices relative to a year ago.

Overall, the risk balance of growth tends to be downward. The main cause of concern is the possible emergence of more aggressive new crown variants before widespread vaccination.

If the supply-demand mismatch caused by the pandemic lasts longer than expected, the inflation risk tends to rise and may become a reality, resulting in more sustained price pressure and rising inflation, and making the monetary normalization of developed economies faster than expected. Multilateral efforts to accelerate global vaccine supply, provide liquidity and debt relief to restricted economies, and adapt to climate change remain essential. Accelerating vaccination of the world’s population remains a top policy priority, while continuing to promote extensive testing and treatment investment. This will save millions of lives, help prevent the emergence of new variants and accelerate the global economic recovery.

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