Roadmap for carbon neutralization in China’s energy sector From IEA Report
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Over the past four decades, China’s remarkable economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and China has become a leader in many industries. But at the same time, China has also become the world’s largest carbon emitter, accounting for one-third of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. China provides more than half of the world’s steel and cement, but the carbon dioxide emissions of these two industries alone are higher than the total carbon emissions of the EU.
China plans to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutralization by 2060. The energy system is the source of nearly 90% of China’s greenhouse gas emissions, so energy policy has become the core of China’s carbon neutral transformation. The latest report released today by the International Energy Agency, the roadmap for carbon neutrality in China’s energy system, discusses how China will achieve its low-carbon goal while ensuring energy security and people’s affordability. The report shows that based on the scale and vitality of China’s economy, the investment required to achieve carbon neutrality is entirely within China’s capacity. This report is a response to the invitation of the Chinese government to the International Energy Agency to cooperate in long-term policy and strategy.
Dr. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, said: “China is the main force in the development of clean energy. From solar power generation to electric vehicles, China has played a leading role in many existing successful cases. China’s efforts to achieve its carbon neutralization goal will promote the vigorous development of a wider range of low-carbon technologies and promote a significant reduction in the use of fossil fuels in the coming decades.
“However, the really exciting news is that our road map shows that China has the means and ability to achieve a faster transformation of clean energy, which will bring greater social and economic benefits to the Chinese people and improve the world’s opportunity to limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 ℃,” Dr. Birol added, “This accelerated transformation will significantly reduce China’s carbon dioxide emissions after 2025, providing the possibility for China to achieve carbon neutralization as early as 2060. This is beneficial to China and the world.”
China has made remarkable progress in the transformation of clean energy, but it still faces some severe challenges. At present, coal accounts for more than 60% of power generation, and China continues to build coal-fired power plants in China. At the same time, China has increased its solar power generation capacity year after year, more than any other country. China is the second largest oil consumer in the world, but it is also the location of 70% of the world’s electric vehicle battery capacity.
At the same time, to achieve China’s climate goals, we should not only rely on the promotion of renewable energy and electric vehicles, but also solve the huge emissions from existing fossil fuel power plants, steel mills, cement kilns and other industrial facilities. If China’s existing emission intensive energy infrastructure continues to operate in the same way, its carbon dioxide emissions will account for one third of the global carbon budget required to control global warming of 1.5 ℃ between now and 2060. This does not include possible new plants to meet growing demand.
This “China road map” points out a path consistent with the lofty goal announced by China last year, that is, to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. In this path, the main driving force for emission reduction by 2030 comes from improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy and reducing coal use. From 2020 to 2060, the power generation capacity of renewable energy based on wind energy and solar photovoltaic power generation will increase seven times, accounting for nearly 80% of the national power structure. After 2030, with the strong development of emerging innovative technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture, industrial carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by nearly 95% by 2060. These advances will promote the development of China’s labor market. The growing field of low-carbon energy technology will create more new jobs than those lost in the declining fossil fuel industry.
This roadmap also explores the opportunities and benefits of China’s faster transformation to clean energy. If China accelerates its transformation, its carbon dioxide emissions will be 20% lower than the current level by 2030. In addition to the significant benefits of mitigating the impact of climate change, its social and economic benefits also include promoting the development and prosperity of regions that have not yet fully benefited from China’s economic development and creating more jobs throughout the country. The cumulative investment required for accelerating transformation is similar to that required for slower transformation, so the investment demand is not an obstacle to accelerating transformation.
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