In 2021, the capital expenditure of the top ten wafer manufacturers will exceed US $50 billion, with an annual increase of 43% From TrendForce
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According to trendforce Jibang consulting, while there is a shortage of chips in the global electronic product supply chain, the supply of wafer foundry capacity is in short supply. The resulting price rise effects have pushed up the output value of the top ten wafer foundry manufacturers, with an annual growth rate of more than 20% for two consecutive years in 2020 and 2021, breaking the $100 billion mark. Looking forward to 2022, driven by the price rise led by TSMC, it is expected that the output value of wafer foundry will reach US $117.69 billion next year, an annual increase of 13.3%.
Driven by the shortage of chips, the new capacity of wafer foundry will be opened in the second half of 2022
Trendforce Jibang consulting said that by 2021, the capital expenditure of the top ten wafer manufacturers will exceed US $50 billion, an annual increase of 43%; In 2022, driven by the completion of new plants and the continuous delivery and transfer of equipment, the capital expenditure is expected to remain at the high level of US $50-60 billion, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. Driven by the official announcement of the new plant in Japan by TSMC, the overall annual growth rate will be revised again. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of 8-inch capacity of global wafer foundry plants will be about 6% and that of 12-inch capacity will be about 14% in 2022.
Since the price of 8-inch wafer manufacturing equipment is equivalent to that of 12 inches, but the average sales unit price of wafers is relatively low, it is difficult to achieve cost-effectiveness in expanding production, so the expansion range is quite limited; In terms of manufacturing process, more than 50% of the 12 inch new capacity is the most scarce mature process (1xnm and above), and compared with 2021, most of the new capacity comes from Hua Hong Wuxi and Hefei nexchip. In 2022, the new capacity mainly comes from TSMC and liandian, The production expansion process focuses on the extremely scarce 40nm and 28nm nodes at this stage. It is expected that the chip shortage will be alleviated slightly.
The shortage tide is slowing down, but the problem of long and short materials will continue to impact some terminal applications
In terms of application, due to consumer electronic terminal products such as laptop, automobile and most Internet of things appliances, most of the external parts in shortage are manufactured by mature processes of more than 28nm (inclusive). On the premise that the new capacity is successively opened in the second half of 2022, the supply is expected to be slightly relieved; However, while the capacity shortage of 40nm and 28nm shows signs of easing, the shortage of 8-inch capacity and 1xnm process is still the focus that can not be ignored in 2022.
From the 8-inch supply side, under the condition of limited capacity growth, the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones and electric vehicles continued to increase, which significantly doubled the demand related to PMIC. This demand continued to erode the 8-inch wafer capacity, making the process orders ≤ 0.18 ㎛ full. By the end of 2022, there was no relief in the short term. As for the 1xnm process, after the semiconductor process enters the FinFET transistor architecture, the R & D and production expansion costs are quite high. Therefore, the number of process suppliers has gradually converged. At present, only TSMC, Samsung and qualified chip have the process technology, and the above three have no obvious 1xnm production expansion plan next year except for the small-scale production expansion planned by lattice chip.
From the demand side, the main products currently manufactured with 1xnm process nodes include 4G SOC, 5g RF translator, Wi Fi SOC related to mobile phones, TV SOC, Wi Fi router, FPGA / ASIC, etc. with the continuous improvement of 5g mobile phone penetration, 5g RF translator will consume a lot of 1xnm process capacity, which may lead to the exclusion of other product chips; In addition, the demand for some smart phones and Wi Fi router using 1xnm process Wi Fi SOC is also increasing year by year. In 2022, when there is no wafer foundry to actively expand 1xnm production capacity, I am afraid that the supply of 1xnm related parts, which is already quite tight, will continue to be limited.
Based on the above, trendforce Jibang consulting believes that after two consecutive years of chip shortage, the expanded capacity announced by major wafer foundries will be opened in 2022, and the new capacity is concentrated in 40nm and 28nm processes. It is expected that the extremely tight chip supply at this stage will be relieved slightly. However, as the time point for the contribution of new capacity to output falls in the second half of 2022, which is in the traditional peak season, the phenomenon of capacity relief may not be obvious on the premise that the supply chain actively prepares goods for the festival at the end of the year. In addition, although some parts of the 40 / 28nm process can be slightly relieved, the extremely short 8-inch 0.1X ㎛ and 12 inch 1xnm processes at this stage may still be the bottleneck of the semiconductor supply chain under the limitation of limited production increase. Therefore, on the whole, the foundry capacity of wafers will still be in a slightly tight market in 2022. Although some parts are expected to be relieved, the problem of short and long materials will continue to impact some end products.
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