Revelation of Japan US electronic trade friction From Minsheng securities

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The following is the Revelation of Japan US electronic trade friction From Minsheng securities recommended by recordtrend.com. And this article belongs to the classification: global economy , Brokerage Report.

The decline of some sub sectors of Japan’s electronic manufacturing industry is limited by trade friction, more because Japanese enterprises miss the wave of scientific and technological innovation and do not pay attention to the horizontal division of labor within the industry. The electronic trade frictions between Japan and the United States lasted from 1984 to 1991. The measures ranged from restricting patent export to imposing anti-dumping duties, to “minimum price agreement” and “minimum market share agreement”. After the trade friction, Japan’s electronic industry has experienced two levels of differentiation. First, the low-end assembly business began to migrate overseas. Only integrated circuits and components remained strong in the global competitiveness. The other level of differentiation was that only equipment and materials in the integrated circuit industry were able to ride the dust, and DRAM and other products were declining from the global dominance. At present, Japan’s electronic industry firmly controls the upstream equipment and material links of the industrial chain, but in the midstream manufacturing and downstream assembly links, the industry presents a hollow pattern. The market generally believes that it was mainly affected by the trade friction between Japan and the United States. We believe that the decline of the middle stream manufacturing and downstream assembly of Japan’s local electronic manufacturing industry is due to the Japanese enterprises’ initiative to transfer production capacity overseas, on the other hand, Japanese enterprises pay attention to the characteristics of vertical integration, and note that their overseas transfer schedule can not meet the pursuit of minimum production cost under the background of global economic integration The needs of Ben. In addition, the failure of DRAM products in the high-end field of Japan’s electronic manufacturing industry can not be completely linked with trade friction. Although the United States has made many difficulties against Japan’s DRAM products during the trade friction period, Japan’s DRAM still maintained about 60% of the global market share (the highest was 80%) at the end of the trade friction between Japan and the United States in 1991 Affected by trade frictions, the main reason is that Japanese DRAM enterprises focus on DRAM products for mainframes. However, since 1990, personal PCs began to rise. There is a big difference between DRAM needed by personal PCs and DRAM for mainframes. The neglect of personal PCs by Japanese enterprises has made DRAM manufacturers in South Korea rise and dare to go against the trend With the rapid expansion of production, DRAM manufacturers in South Korea have won the first place in DRAM for personal PC with the advantage of low cost.

We should be optimistic about the gap between China and the United States in the field of electronic manufacturing. At present, the gap between China and the United States in the field of electronic manufacturing has been narrowing. At present, in the field of semiconductors, the equipment and materials we need basically rely on imports. However, before Japan started the national semiconductor system in 1976, the situation was similar to that of China. However, after years of development, 1985 Before the trade friction in, Japanese semiconductor enterprises had basically realized the self-made core equipment, and even led the American counterparts in mass production and listing in some core products. It can be seen that the gap between Japan and the United States in electronic manufacturing industry is smaller than that between China and the United States when the United States starts to fight trade frictions. It is gratifying that a number of high-quality semiconductor companies have emerged in China, such as Zhongwei company, LanChi technology, huiding technology, etc. In addition, the national system of semiconductor in Japan provides us with a replicable case for the development of semiconductor manufacturing. We should strengthen the national system and strive to achieve breakthroughs in core equipment and materials in the shortest time.

The whole nation system is an effective way to develop high-end manufacturing industry. In 1976, the “VLSI Technology Research Institute” under the “DRAM system innovation” project in Japan spent 72 billion yen, including 320 yen from the government and 40 billion yen from the enterprises. Finally, Japan was able to research and develop 64K integrated circuit and 256K dynamic memory before the United States, and completed the catching up and Surpassing of American technology, thus laying a dominant position of Japan in DRAM market. South Korea, including South Korea, also adopted the national system to develop semiconductors. In 1983, South Korea announced the “semiconductor industry revitalization plan”. The South Korean government invested 346 million US dollars in loans and stimulated 2 billion US dollars of private investment, which promoted the development of South Korea’s semiconductor industry. At present, China has also started to support the semiconductor large fund program, and has started the second phase of investment. The examples of Japan and South Korea prove that the national system is an effective way to develop high-end and high-end manufacturing industry, and China’s semiconductor large fund plan has a real role in promoting the development of semiconductor.

China’s current electronic manufacturing industry is mainly driven by domestic demand, which has stronger ability to resist trade friction compared with Japan’s demand structure with high trade dependence. Japan’s electronic manufacturing industry’s dependence on foreign trade is much higher than that of China. Japan’s electronic industry’s foreign trade dependence has been on the rise since 1950, while the situation in China is just the opposite. Before the trade friction in 1985, Japan’s electronic manufacturing industry’s foreign trade dependence reached 56%, while China’s electronic manufacturing industry’s foreign trade dependence was only 39.32%. After the financial crisis in 2008, the export proportion of China’s electronic manufacturing industry has been declining. The reason for this is that China’s total export has not increased for many years, and the total production has increased nearly since 2008 However, the growth rate of total export was only 40%, indicating that China’s domestic demand is growing vigorously, and the output value digested by domestic demand is much higher than that of export. Before 1985, the reason why Japan’s trade dependence increased continuously was that the growth rate of its export was much higher than that of its total output value. The export value and total output value in 1985 were 1980 and 885 times higher than those in 1955. After 1985, Japan’s export basically maintained a trend of zero growth, but its GDP declined after reaching its peak in 2000, leading to a passive increase in trade dependence.

With the opening of the science and technology innovation board and the launch of the second phase of the big fund, the Chinese version of the new nationwide system has helped domestic semiconductors, and it is expected that the storage industry will take the lead in breaking through. The science and technology innovation board has promoted the rapid listing of high-quality semiconductor enterprises, large-scale investment in the second phase of the big fund, and the breakthrough of large-scale heavy equipment has been accelerated. High quality semiconductor enterprises, such as Zhongwei company, LanChi technology and Shanghai silicon industry, have speeded up the catch-up of international leading enterprises in various links through the rapid listing of funds on the science and technology innovation board. SMIC also plans to be listed and traded on the science and technology innovation board. As the strongest wafer manufacturer in China, SMIC has started mass production at 14nm, and the gap with international giants such as TSMC and Samsung is gradually narrowing. The listing of sci-tech innovation board is conducive to the company’s fund-raising to accelerate the research and development of advanced processes.

The autonomy and controllability of semiconductor industry is the embodiment of national will, which is supported by national policies. The second phase of the large fund has a large amount of support. The registered capital of the second phase of the large fund is 204.15 billion yuan. According to the leverage ratio of 1:3, the scale of the social fund can reach more than 600 billion yuan. Compared with the total investment of 1387 billion yuan and 514.5 billion local and social funds in the first phase of large funds, the scale of funds in the second phase is far more than that in the first phase.

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