The probability that the global temperature will temporarily reach the threshold of 1.5 ° C in the next five years is 50:50 From world meteorological organization

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According to the latest climate Bulletin released by the World Meteorological Organization on the evening of the 9th local time, the probability of 50:50 global average annual temperature in the next five years is at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre industrial level for at least one year, and this possibility is increasing with the passage of time.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, at least one year from 2022 to 2026 is 93% likely to be the hottest year on record, and 2016 will be the top of the list. According to the global one-year to ten-year climate update produced by the Met Office as the leading center for such forecasts of the World Meteorological Organization, the probability that the five-year average from 2022 to 2026 is higher than that in the past five years (2017 to 2021) is also 93%.

The latest annual report shows that the possibility of a temporary temperature rise of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius has also gradually increased since 2015, and this possibility is close to zero in 2015. From 2017 to 2021, the probability of exceeding is 10%. Between 2022 and 2026, this probability has increased to nearly 50%.

WMO Secretary General Talas said the study showed that we were significantly close to temporarily reaching the lower targets set by the Paris Agreement. The figure of 1.5 degrees Celsius is not a random statistic. It is more like an indicator that the climate impact will cause greater and greater harm to mankind and even the whole earth. ‘because as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to rise,’ he said. At the same time, the ocean will continue to warm and acidify, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and extreme weather will become more frequent. The Arctic is warming more than normal, and changes in the Arctic will affect each of us.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change, the climate related risks to natural and human systems caused by global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius are higher than the current level, but lower than the risks caused by 2 degrees Celsius.

According to the interim report of the World Meteorological Organization on the state of the global climate, the global average temperature in 2021 is 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than the baseline before industrialization. The final draft of the report on the state of the global climate in 2021 will be published on May 18.

More reading: WMO: 2010-2019 will be the hottest decade in history WMO: 2020 will be one of the three warmest years on record WMO: 2020 or the hottest year in adult history WMO: global economic losses caused by weather disasters in the past 50 years have reached $3.64 trillion WMO: 2020 or one of the hottest years on record WMO: nearly seven years WMO: the probability of weak El Ni ñ o formation in the next few months is 70%. WMO: 2014 will be the hottest year since meteorological records. WMO: the average concentration of global carbon dioxide reached a record high in 2015, reaching 400 ppm for the first time. New England Journal of Medicine : global warming causes far more deaths than 250000 people a year. London School of hygiene and Tropical Medicine: global warming reduces vegetable harvests Harvard University: global warming puts people at risk of increased disease and stunting IPCC: global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak by 2025 and reduce by 43% by 2030. University of California, Berkeley: the study found that global warming leads to more frequent lightning

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