In November 2021, China accounted for 60% of the world’s new energy vehicles From China Automobile Circulation Association
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From January to November 2021, the global sales volume of broad new energy passenger vehicles reached 7.96 million, including 5.25 million plug-in hybrid, pure electric and fuel cell narrow new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 124%. The world share of China’s new energy passenger vehicles reached 51% in 2019, but in 2020, affected by the policy environment and epidemic situation, the world position of China’s new energy vehicle market decreased to 41%, and the trend of surpassing Europe was obvious. From January to November 2021, China’s new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 52% of the world, of which 60% in November, accounting for 60% of the world’s new energy, with excellent performance.
The strong performance of new energy vehicle sales in 2020 is due to the pressure of carbon emission, not Tesla’s significant contribution. In the European and American markets affected by the overseas epidemic, the support of new energy policies is strong. China’s new energy vehicle market will gradually recover in the second half of 2020. In 2021, China accounted for 51% of the world’s new energy vehicles. Due to the depressed market under the European epidemic, China’s world status returned to a high level of 60% in November. China has driven the world’s increment, which is mainly driven by the shift of China’s new energy vehicle market to marketization, forming a strong endogenous growth power.
The analysis of the commercial vehicle market is specifically thrown out here. It is mainly that the world’s new energy trucks and buses are basically in China, and the new energy buses are shrinking after the epidemic. Although the Chinese share is increased a little, the analysis is of little significance.
1、 Trend of world new energy vehicles
From new energy vehicles in a broad sense to new energy passenger vehicles in a narrow sense:
The development of new energy vehicles in the world began with hybrid power, and then gradually entered the era of battery. Pure electric and plug-in hybrid have become the real policy support main force of new energy.
The development of new energy vehicles in China is also a subsidy process starting from supporting the ordinary hybrid of buses and trucks. Then the bus entered the pure electric era, and the hybrid bus became history.
In this analysis, we do not consider buses and special vehicles, but only passenger vehicles. The reason is that the technology of buses and special vehicles is relatively backward, and there is no market space outside the policies such as buses and right of way vehicles in the near future. Therefore, all countries have made passenger vehicles the focus of new energy development.
1. World broad new energy passenger vehicle market trend from 2004 to 2020
In 2012, there were 1.58 million generalized new energy passenger vehicles in the world, and only 1.79 million by 2015, with slow growth. With the accelerated development of new energy vehicles started in 2016, the number of generalized new energy vehicles exceeded 2 million in 2016, reached 3.17 million in 2017, exceeded 4 million in 2018 and reached 5.15 million in 2020. From January to November 2021, there were 8.04 million generalized new energy vehicles, of which ordinary hybrid accounted for 35%.
From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of hybrid vehicles continued to decline to 35% and gradually stabilized. Among them, the proportion of hybrid passenger vehicles gradually decreased from 93% in 2012 to 79% in 2015, and then the proportion of hybrid vehicles decreased by 10 percentage points every year. The decline of hybrid market share slowed down in 2019, but the share still fell to 35% in 2021. In 2021, the trend of plug-in hybrid is strong, the performance of hybrid is gradually weakened, and the pure electric is relatively stable.
2. Performance of new energy passenger vehicles in the world in 2021
In 2020, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 2.85 million units, an increase of 35% over the same period in 2019.
In 2020, the trend of new energy vehicles in the world is obvious from low to high. It increased by 26% from January to November and 99% in December.
From January to November 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 5.24 million units, an increase of 124%, which exceeded the expected and super performance.
3. Market trend of world new energy passenger vehicles from 2016 to 2020
In the first half of 2020, the world’s new energy vehicles faced the pressure of high base, and began to enter the low base stage in July, laying a new growth cycle of new energy.
From January to November 2021, it showed an accelerated upward trend. Due to the serious epidemic in Europe last year, the growth under the low base was stronger.
In 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 2.85 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35%.
The deceleration trend in recent years has exceeded expectations. In 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 2.11 million, with a strong year-on-year increase of 7%. In the early stage, the world’s new energy sales have exceeded 60% growth for several consecutive years. The performance was strong in 2021, and the growth rate rebounded to 124% from January to November.
From the perspective of the regional market trend of new energy vehicles, Europe will always accelerate the upward trend in 2020, and the overall high level of European new energy vehicle market will be stable in 2021; China’s new energy vehicle market continued to be strong in 2021, and continued to accelerate upward from August to November; New energy vehicles in the US market are relatively sluggish and stable.
China’s new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly from weak to small, which is relatively different from the trend of traditional vehicles, especially the fluctuation law between annual and monthly, which is not only affected by consumption, but also affected by policies and other environment. Therefore, the market change of new energy vehicles should be more complex, However, with the arrival of the overall trend of market-oriented transformation of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles have gradually turned to conventional operation in the near future. The sales volume of new energy vehicles will start high in 2021, and Europe will be better than expected in November and continue to develop well.
4. New energy penetration rate of countries in the world
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world has generally shown a rapid upward trend, reaching 7% this year, of which China’s penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 12%; 22% in Germany; Norway has a penetration rate of 69%; Only 4% in the United States; Only 0.8% in Japan; Therefore, the imbalance of world new energy development is extremely obvious. With the United States increasing the penetration of new energy, the world’s new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of strong development.
2、 World new energy vehicle structure and market trend
1. Market trend of world new energy passenger vehicles from 2015 to 2021
The European new energy market from January to November 2021 was affected by the epidemic, and its share decreased significantly compared with that in 2020. Recently, the growth rate of China’s new energy passenger vehicles is weaker than the world average growth rate. In 2020, the world share of China’s new energy passenger vehicles reversed greatly, depressed in the first quarter, reversed in the second quarter, soared in the second half of the year, remained strong from January to November 2021, and reached 53% in November.
The sales volume of other countries in the world outside China has a strong trend and fluctuates greatly. At the end of 2020, the average growth rate of France and Germany is doubled, and Europe is relatively strong. The slower growth rate is Japan, which is low, and the growth rate of new energy markets such as South Korea is also average.
2. Product structure of new energy passenger vehicles in the world
The proportion of pure electric has increased in recent years, reaching 72% this year, and the hydrogen energy market is seriously low; The share of plug-in and hybrid vehicles decreased, and a pattern similar to traditional vehicles gradually appeared.
3. Structure of new energy passenger vehicles in the world – Q4 2021
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the world’s new energy vehicle structure is stronger in Europe, followed by Asia. Therefore, the pure electricity and plug-in hybrid of the European market structure are obvious. France and Norway have a high proportion of pure electric vehicles.
China’s recent structural upgrading has promoted the improvement of the world model structure. The share of China’s A00 class pure electric vehicles decreased to 35% of China’s new energy vehicles, and the proportion of class a vehicles increased to 24%, resulting in an obvious increase in the proportion of class a vehicles in the world’s architecture.
4. Trend structure analysis of major countries
In the broad pattern of new cars, about 70% of the Chinese market is pure electric, 15% is plug-in hybrid, and 15% is hybrid. 15% of the Chinese market is hybrid, while the proportion of German hybrid is 10%, that of American hybrid is 56%, that of plug-in hybrid is only 12%, and that of pure electric is only 32%. Therefore, among the broad new energy vehicles, the performance of American hybrid is relatively strong, that of pure electric is relatively strong, and that of plug-in hybrid is relatively low in the American market, It is lower than that of pure electric, while the proportion of plug-in hybrid and pure electric in Europe is similar.
Therefore, in general, the Chinese market is a pure electric super strong pattern, while the American market is a relatively strong pattern of hybrid power, and the German market is a relatively strong pattern of plug-in hybrid power, forming a sharp contrast between the three.
In the pure electric vehicle market, class B vehicles in China account for 30%, 69% in the United States and 21% in Germany, while A00 and A0 vehicles account for 51% in Germany; China’s A00 and A0 levels are 45%; A00 and A0 in the United States are almost 20%. Therefore, on the whole, the new energy vehicles in the Chinese market are high-end and strong, the United States is high-end and super strong, and Germany is super strong.
3、 World new energy vehicle structure and market trend
1. Share trend of various new energy vehicles – significant difference
There are obvious differences in new energy among manufacturers in the world. Toyota’s hybrid power is super strong, while Tesla has only pure electric power and occupies an absolute main position.
The mixed European Volkswagen and BMW performed strongly.
2. Share trend of new energy vehicles by manufacturers
Tesla remains the first in the world and continues to strengthen at present. The new energy performance of SAIC Group is excellent, and the performance of SAIC passenger car and SAIC Wuling is very good. German Volkswagen’s new energy vehicles performed strongly. This year, they were seriously affected by the epidemic. In addition, they made a sprint at the end of last year, and the trend was weak at the beginning of the year. BMW Group, BYD, German Benz, etc. remain at the level of the second echelon.
The new energy wave competition of luxury cars is relatively fierce. Tesla of the United States has performed extremely well and promoted Mercedes Benz and BMW to increase investment in new energy vehicles. At present, the improvement speed of performance vehicles of BMW and Mercedes Benz is not very fast. Tesla’s sales volume is the increment of Model3 and modely.
In recent years, the models of China’s new energy vehicle enterprises have performed very well, especially the pure electric vehicle in 2021, which is driven by policies and has great potential in the future.
3. Share trend of Tesla’s main new energy vehicles
Tesla’s main new energy vehicles show great differentiation. Tesla’s production and marketing capacity in China is strong, and Tesla’s sense of existence in other countries is not strong.
The world performance of China’s main models is strong, and there are strong models in high, middle and low-end. In the future, Chinese car enterprises are expected to enter other markets in the world.
4、 Structure and market trend of pure electric new energy vehicles
1. World structure of pure electric
China’s market share of pure electric vehicles in the world is relatively outstanding. From 2016 to 2018, the share was about 60%, and the share decreased slightly in 2019 and 2020 to 48% in 2020; In 2021, it rebounded to 61%, of which the share in the fourth quarter reached 67%, which was relatively excellent.
The share of pure electric vehicles in Europe increased from 15% in 2018 to 23% in 2019, 35% in 2020 and 21% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
From the perspective of pure electric share of auto enterprises, Tesla’s share of pure electric vehicles is relatively stable, and has always been at the level of about 22% since 2019.
SAIC’s share increased from 5% in 2018 to 7% in 2019, and then increased to 12% in 2020 and 14% in 2021.
BYD’s share remained relatively stable on the whole. From 2017 to 2021, BYD’s share remained at 7%, but in the fourth quarter of 2021, BYD’s share rose to 9%.
2. Plug and mix world structure
China’s share of the world’s plug-in hybrid is relatively stable, ranging from 30% – 50% in 2017 and 2018 to 26% in 2020. China’s share of the world’s plug-in hybrid was 35% in 2021, of which it rose to 47% in the fourth quarter. China presents a strong performance in the world’s plug-in hybrid market.
The share of plug-in hybrid in Europe increased from 35% in 2019 to 64% in 2020, and then decreased to 53% in 2021.
From the perspective of the share of plug-in hybrid of car enterprises, BYD is the most prominent. BYD’s world plug-in hybrid share dropped to a low level of 6% in 2020, but rose to 16% in 2021, of which the world plug-in hybrid share rose to 26% in the fourth quarter, reflecting the good performance of BYD’s plug-in hybrid market.
Volkswagen’s share of plug-in hybrid increased from 11% in 2019 to 20% in 2020, and then decreased to 16% in 2021. BMW’s share of plug-in hybrid has also decreased significantly in recent two years, falling to 11% in 2021, and Geely’s plug-in hybrid accounts for 9% of the world.
3. Hybrid world structure
In the general hybrid market, the hybrid performance of Japanese cars is relatively strong. The share of Japanese hybrid power decreased from 50% of the world’s share from 2016 to 2018 to 46% in 2019, to 38% in 2020 and to 29% this year.
China’s share of ordinary hybrid increased from 12% in 2019 to 15% in 2020, and then to 18% in 2021, showing a strong performance. Among them, it increased to 25% in the fourth quarter of 2021, showing a relatively strong performance.
In terms of the performance of automobile enterprises in the ordinary hybrid market, Toyota and Honda in Japan are the two main hybrid enterprises, which now account for 76% of the world’s hybrid share, and their performance is relatively excellent.
Toyota and Honda are generally at a share level of more than 70%, and their performance is relatively good. In particular, Honda’s hybrid share continues to rise to 17% this year, while Toyota’s hybrid share has dropped to 59%. Nearly 10 percentage points in only five years, in contrast to the rise of Honda.
Hyundai Kia’s share of hybrid power is about the world level, Renault Nissan’s share is about 8%, and the share of hybrid power of Chinese car enterprises is also gradually performing. At present, the Great Wall has also made a breakthrough in hybrid power. More reading: the trend of the world’s new energy vehicles in 2020 is low before and high after. Analysis of the pattern characteristics of the world’s new energy vehicles in 2016. China Automobile Circulation Association: in March 2020, the sales volume of the domestic narrow passenger car market reached 1045000, down 40.4% year-on-year. China Automobile Circulation Association: China imported automobile market monthly report in April 2020. China Automobile Circulation Association: luxury brand newly authorized 4S stores in the first quarter of 2020 41 4S stores of jiatui.com, China Automobile Circulation Association: scanning and analysis of automobile market from November 8 to 14, 2021, China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of Tesla’s network layout in China, China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of China’s automobile export from January to October, 2021, China Automobile Circulation Association: brief analysis of the used car market in December and throughout the year, China Automobile Circulation Association: issue 17 of new energy commercial vehicle market in 2021 Information Weekly China Automobile Circulation Association: car market scanning analysis from November 15 to 21, 2021 China Automobile Circulation Association: October 2020 new energy automobile industry monthly report China Automobile Circulation Association: December 2020 new energy automobile industry monthly report China Automobile Circulation Association: analysis of new energy special vehicles in the first half of 2020 China automobile circulation Association: inventory early warning index of automobile dealers in August 2021 The number is 51.7%
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